Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W55-0 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-29 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W23-6 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W16-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:92% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:34% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 18.2% | 86.7% |
| 6-2 | 47.8% | 1.6% |
| 5-3 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 6.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.4% (-0.2%) | 17.3% (+0.7%) | |
| 18.0% (+1.4%) | 1.2% (-15.3%) | |
| 15.0% (-1.6%) | 18.0% (+1.5%) | |
| 16.4% (-0.2%) | 16.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 15.6% (-0.9%) | 19.2% (+2.6%) | |
| 16.3% (-0.2%) | 17.5% (+1.0%) | |
| 15.4% (-1.1%) | 17.6% (+1.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Oklahoma
South Carolina
VanderbiltCCG: 30.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas
LSUCCG: 19.6% • Scenario: 47.0%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
86.7%
18.2%Any 1 loss
1.6%
47.8%6.4%
1.7%5.9%
1.8%3.6%
3.6%1.7%
5.4%
0.9%
35.3%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19