Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W17-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W23-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W20-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L19-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L24-31 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:51% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:18% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 3.2% | 15.6% |
| 5-3 | 22.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 41.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.5%) | 1.0% (+0.5%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.2%) | 0.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 18.2% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.0% • Scenario: 51.4%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
15.2%
2.9%19.1%
0.3%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19