Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17
Conference Standings
| 1 |  BYUBYU | 1-0 | 2-0 | 53.6% | |
| T2 |  Texas TechTTU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 55.9% | |
| T2 |  UtahUTAH | 0-0 | 2-0 | 42.5% | |
| T2 |  Kansas StateKSU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 19.1% | |
| T2 |  HoustonHOU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 7.0% | |
| T2 |  BaylorBAY | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6.0% | |
| T2 |  CincinnatiCIN | 0-0 | 2-0 | 5.3% | |
| T2 |  TCUTCU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2.7% | |
| T2 |  UCFUCF | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2.6% | |
| T2 |  Arizona StateASU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1.5% | |
| T2 |  ArizonaARIZ | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1.2% | |
| T2 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1.1% | |
| T2 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.9% | |
| T2 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.3% | |
| T2 |  Iowa StateISU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.2% | |
| T2 |  KansasKU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.1% | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 30.2% (-25.8%) | 63.0% (+7.1%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 56.1% (+0.2%) | 55.6% (-0.3%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 55.8% (-0.1%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 56.1% (+0.2%) | 55.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 56.0% (+0.1%) | 55.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 55.9% (-0.0%) | 56.1% (+0.1%) | ||
| 55.9% (-0.0%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 55.6% (-0.3%) | 56.0% (+0.1%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 56.3% (+0.4%) | 55.9% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU | 99.9% | 90.8% | 47.0% | 4.2% | - | 55.9% |
| BYUBYU | 99.9% | 93.7% | 49.6% | 4.5% | - | 53.6% |
| UtahUTAH | 99.9% | 91.3% | 43.1% | 2.9% | - | 42.5% |
| Kansas StateKSU | 98.3% | 77.7% | 27.8% | 1.5% | - | 19.1% |
| HoustonHOU | 100% | 97.1% | 51.6% | 4.8% | - | 7.0% |
| BaylorBAY | 100% | 93.7% | 41.8% | 2.4% | - | 6.0% |
| CincinnatiCIN | 100% | 99.6% | 60.7% | 5.3% | <0.1% | 5.3% |
| TCUTCU | 100% | 99.7% | 63.3% | 6.7% | <0.1% | 2.7% |
| UCFUCF | 99.6% | 85.5% | 32.9% | 1.5% | - | 2.6% |
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 96.5% | 45.8% | 3.5% | - | 1.5% |
| ArizonaARIZ | - | 98.7% | 56.0% | 5.8% | - | 1.2% |
| ColoradoCOLO | 100% | 97.7% | 57.0% | 6.6% | <0.1% | 1.1% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | 100% | 87.5% | 33.9% | 1.4% | - | 0.9% |
| West VirginiaWVU | 100% | 92.4% | 41.5% | 2.2% | - | 0.3% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 95.3% | 51.3% | 4.8% | - | 0.2% |
| KansasKU | 100% | 97.1% | 49.2% | 3.8% | - | 0.1% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU(0-0) | 12.9% | 30.6% | 31.0% | 17.7% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.2 |
| BYUBYU(1-0) | 9.3% | 28.7% | 33.3% | 20.0% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 7.1 |
| UtahUTAH(0-0) | 7.2% | 23.1% | 31.3% | 23.7% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.8 |
| Kansas StateKSU(0-0) | 2.5% | 12.0% | 24.5% | 28.1% | 20.2% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.1 |
| BaylorBAY(0-0) | 0.2% | 1.9% | 8.4% | 19.8% | 27.8% | 24.0% | 12.9% | 4.2% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| HoustonHOU(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.8% | 8.2% | 20.0% | 28.1% | 24.2% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| CincinnatiCIN(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.1% | 5.5% | 15.1% | 25.1% | 26.6% | 17.6% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 4.4 |
| UCFUCF(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 13.5% | 23.7% | 26.7% | 19.4% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 4.2 |
| TCUTCU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 9.5% | 20.8% | 28.3% | 23.6% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 3.9 |
| Arizona StateASU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 8.5% | 19.8% | 27.9% | 24.5% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 0.4% | 3.8 |
| ArizonaARIZ(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 1.2% | 6.9% | 19.0% | 29.2% | 26.1% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 3.7 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 17.5% | 26.9% | 25.9% | 15.1% | 4.9% | 0.7% | 3.6 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 4.9% | 13.5% | 23.8% | 27.4% | 19.7% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 3.3 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 10.1% | 22.0% | 29.3% | 23.4% | 10.1% | 1.8% | 3.0 |
| Iowa StateISU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 17.0% | 28.2% | 28.2% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 2.7 |
| KansasKU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 5.7% | 15.7% | 27.0% | 28.7% | 17.1% | 4.3% | 2.6 |
Data from 2026-09-17
Who is still alive for the Big XII Championship Game?
As of Week 3, Texas Tech (55.9%), BYU (53.6%), Utah (42.5%) and Kansas State (19.1%) currently have the best odds to reach the Big XII Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Big XII Championship Game matchup?
BYU vs. Texas Tech is the most likely Big XII Championship Game matchup at 23.6%, followed by Texas Tech vs. Utah (17.3%) and BYU vs. Utah (14.7%).