Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-11-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  UtahUTAH | 5-0 | 8-0 | 84.4% | |
| T2 |  Texas TechTTU | 4-1 | 7-1 | 48.3% | |
| T2 |  BYUBYU | 4-1 | 7-1 | 36.6% | |
| T4 |  HoustonHOU | 3-2 | 6-2 | 15.8% | |
| T4 |  ArizonaARIZ | 3-2 | 6-2 | 8.2% | |
| T4 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 3-2 | 5-3 | 3.7% | |
| T4 |  BaylorBAY | 3-2 | 5-3 | 2.9% | |
| T8 |  CincinnatiCIN | 2-3 | 5-3 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  Iowa StateISU | 2-3 | 4-4 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  TCUTCU | 2-3 | 4-4 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  UCFUCF | 2-3 | 4-4 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  Arizona StateASU | 2-3 | 4-4 | - | |
| T8 |  West VirginiaWVU | 2-3 | 5-3 | - | |
| T14 |  ColoradoCOLO | 1-4 | 3-5 | - | |
| T14 |  KansasKU | 1-4 | 3-5 | - | |
| T14 |  Kansas StateKSU | 1-4 | 4-4 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 87.9% (+3.6%) | 83.2% (-1.2%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 61.3% (-23.1%) | 94.7% (+10.4%) | ||
| 85.3% (+0.9%) | 84.2% (-0.2%) | ||
| 84.3% (-0.1%) | 84.5% (+0.1%) | ||
| 83.8% (-0.5%) | 84.5% (+0.1%) | ||
| 83.7% (-0.6%) | 84.7% (+0.4%) | ||
| 84.8% (+0.4%) | 84.1% (-0.2%) | ||
| 90.1% (+5.7%) | 83.9% (-0.4%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
ColoradoTCUKansasHoustonWest VirginiaIowa StateKansas StateUtahCCG: 98.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 94.7% • Scenario: 69.1%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UtahUTAH | 100% | 100% | 46.4% | 1.3% | 84.4% |
| Texas TechTTU | - | 94.0% | 45.2% | 1.8% | 48.3% |
| BYUBYU | - | 100% | 49.0% | 3.9% | 36.6% |
| HoustonHOU | - | - | 38.0% | 2.8% | 15.8% |
| ArizonaARIZ | - | - | 42.2% | 0.9% | 8.2% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | 29.2% | 0.2% | 3.7% |
| BaylorBAY | - | - | 82.9% | 1.1% | 2.9% |
| CincinnatiCIN | - | - | - | 4.7% | <0.1% |
| Iowa StateISU | - | - | - | 2.4% | <0.1% |
| TCUTCU | - | - | - | 7.1% | <0.1% |
| UCFUCF | - | - | - | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Arizona StateASU | - | - | - | 0.3% | - |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | - | - | - | - |
| KansasKU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| West VirginiaWVU | - | - | - | 12.1% | - |
Data from 2026-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UtahUTAH(5-0) | 29.7% | 44.5% | 21.8% | 3.8% | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | 8.0 |
| Texas TechTTU(4-1) | - | 29.4% | 45.0% | 21.9% | 3.6% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 7.0 |
| BYUBYU(4-1) | - | 13.9% | 43.8% | 32.8% | 8.8% | 0.8% | - | - | - | 6.6 |
| HoustonHOU(3-2) | - | - | 38.4% | 42.4% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 0.2% | - | - | 6.2 |
| ArizonaARIZ(3-2) | - | - | 18.5% | 44.1% | 29.6% | 7.3% | 0.5% | - | - | 5.7 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(3-2) | - | - | 12.4% | 37.3% | 35.3% | 13.3% | 1.7% | - | - | 5.5 |
| BaylorBAY(3-2) | - | - | 3.2% | 19.9% | 41.1% | 31.0% | 4.7% | - | - | 4.9 |
| UCFUCF(2-3) | - | - | - | 7.6% | 29.2% | 38.1% | 20.9% | 4.1% | - | 4.2 |
| Iowa StateISU(2-3) | - | - | - | 1.6% | 13.9% | 35.7% | 36.1% | 12.7% | - | 3.6 |
| CincinnatiCIN(2-3) | - | - | - | 0.8% | 10.6% | 39.9% | 39.5% | 9.2% | - | 3.5 |
| Arizona StateASU(2-3) | - | - | - | 0.9% | 10.1% | 34.2% | 41.2% | 13.6% | - | 3.4 |
| TCUTCU(2-3) | - | - | - | 0.6% | 7.3% | 30.1% | 45.6% | 16.4% | - | 3.3 |
| West VirginiaWVU(2-3) | - | - | - | <0.1% | 1.3% | 14.3% | 47.8% | 36.6% | - | 2.8 |
| KansasKU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 2.0% | 15.4% | 38.2% | 34.5% | 9.9% | 2.7 |
| Kansas StateKSU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 2.1% | 13.9% | 34.1% | 36.1% | 13.9% | 2.5 |
| ColoradoCOLO(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.6% | 7.0% | 27.3% | 42.5% | 22.7% | 2.2 |
Data from 2026-11-02
Who is still alive for the Big XII Championship Game?
As of Latest, Utah (84.4%), Texas Tech (48.3%), BYU (36.6%) and Houston (15.8%) currently have the best odds to reach the Big XII Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Big XII Championship Game matchup?
Texas Tech vs. Utah is the most likely Big XII Championship Game matchup at 37.8%, followed by BYU vs. Utah (24.4%) and Houston vs. Utah (13.0%).
What is the biggest game in the Big XII Championship Game race this week?
BYU's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Utah would put its Big XII Championship Game odds at 71.9%, while a loss would drop them to 20.8%.
Which Big XII contender can least afford to lose again?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Baylor's Big XII Championship Game odds at 82.9%; even one more loss drops that to 1.4%.