Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-08-26
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Texas TechTTU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 74.2% | |
| T1 |  BYUBYU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 39.5% | |
| T1 |  UtahUTAH | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15.0% | |
| T1 |  ArizonaARIZ | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| T1 |  HoustonHOU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| T1 |  TCUTCU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8.2% | |
| T1 |  BaylorBAY | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7.8% | |
| T1 |  Kansas StateKSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7.5% | |
| T1 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5.2% | |
| T1 |  Arizona StateASU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4.8% | |
| T1 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4.4% | |
| T1 |  CincinnatiCIN | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4.3% | |
| T1 |  UCFUCF | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.5% | |
| T1 |  KansasKU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.2% | |
| T1 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.5% | |
| T1 |  Iowa StateISU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.3% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 74.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 74.0% (-0.2%) | 74.4% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 99.2% | 80.0% | 19.7% | 0.1% | 74.2% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 97.7% | 70.1% | 12.3% | <0.1% | 39.5% |
| UtahUTAH | 100% | 96.8% | 64.0% | 9.6% | <0.1% | 15.0% |
| ArizonaARIZ | 100% | 99.6% | 71.0% | 14.6% | 0.1% | 9.8% |
| HoustonHOU | 100% | 98.1% | 67.0% | 12.5% | <0.1% | 9.8% |
| TCUTCU | 100% | 99.2% | 75.4% | 16.9% | 0.1% | 8.2% |
| BaylorBAY | 100% | 99.2% | 71.5% | 13.5% | <0.1% | 7.8% |
| Kansas StateKSU | 99.5% | 93.7% | 57.1% | 7.5% | - | 7.5% |
| ColoradoCOLO | 100% | 98.1% | 70.5% | 13.2% | 0.1% | 5.2% |
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 99.3% | 71.9% | 14.8% | <0.1% | 4.8% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | 100% | 96.4% | 61.3% | 8.3% | <0.1% | 4.4% |
| CincinnatiCIN | 100% | 99.6% | 75.9% | 15.6% | <0.1% | 4.3% |
| UCFUCF | 100% | 96.9% | 64.0% | 8.6% | <0.1% | 3.5% |
| KansasKU | 100% | 97.3% | 64.1% | 10.1% | <0.1% | 3.2% |
| West VirginiaWVU | 100% | 96.4% | 68.4% | 10.7% | <0.1% | 1.5% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 95.4% | 65.3% | 10.2% | <0.1% | 1.3% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU(0-0) | 15.4% | 32.1% | 29.7% | 16.1% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.3 |
| BYUBYU(0-0) | 3.6% | 14.5% | 26.2% | 27.3% | 17.9% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 6.2 |
| UtahUTAH(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.0% | 12.9% | 23.5% | 26.6% | 19.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| HoustonHOU(0-0) | 0.2% | 1.9% | 8.0% | 18.8% | 26.7% | 24.3% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 4.7 |
| ArizonaARIZ(0-0) | 0.2% | 1.7% | 7.5% | 18.5% | 26.8% | 24.8% | 14.4% | 5.1% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| Kansas StateKSU(0-0) | 0.2% | 1.8% | 7.5% | 17.3% | 25.4% | 24.6% | 15.4% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 4.6 |
| BaylorBAY(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.3% | 5.9% | 15.6% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 17.2% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 4.4 |
| TCUTCU(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.2% | 5.8% | 15.3% | 25.2% | 26.2% | 17.2% | 7.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 4.4 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.2% | 12.2% | 22.5% | 26.8% | 20.5% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 4.1 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 11.9% | 22.1% | 26.1% | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 4.1 |
| Arizona StateASU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.5% | 11.5% | 22.1% | 27.4% | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 4.1 |
| UCFUCF(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.2% | 9.9% | 20.2% | 26.3% | 22.7% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 3.9 |
| CincinnatiCIN(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 9.8% | 20.2% | 27.2% | 22.9% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 3.9 |
| KansasKU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 9.2% | 19.0% | 26.2% | 23.6% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 3.8 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 5.2% | 14.2% | 24.6% | 27.2% | 18.7% | 7.4% | 1.3% | 3.4 |
| Iowa StateISU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 4.7% | 12.9% | 23.4% | 27.9% | 20.2% | 8.3% | 1.5% | 3.3 |
Data from 2026-08-26