Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Eastern MichiganEMU | 1-0 | 1-2 | 0.6% | |
| T2 |  Western MichiganWMU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 78.5% | |
| T2 |  ToledoTOL | 0-0 | 1-1 | 68.7% | |
| T2 |  OhioOHIO | 0-0 | 1-1 | 20.9% | |
| T2 |  MassachusettsMASS | 0-0 | 2-0 | 12.6% | |
| T2 |  Miami (OH)M-OH | 0-0 | 1-1 | 12.0% | |
| T2 |  BuffaloBUF | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2.2% | |
| T2 |  AkronAKR | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2.0% | |
| T2 |  Ball StateBALL | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1.3% | |
| T2 |  Central MichiganCMU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.7% | |
| T2 |  Bowling GreenBGSU | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0.3% | |
| T2 |  Kent StateKENT | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.3% | |
| T2 |  Sacramento StateSAC | 0-1 | 1-2 | <0.1% | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 78.3% (-0.1%) | 78.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 78.3% (-0.2%) | 78.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 78.3% (-0.2%) | 78.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 78.2% (-0.3%) | 78.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 78.6% (+0.1%) | 78.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 78.5% (+0.1%) | 78.4% (-0.1%) | ||
| 78.4% (-0.0%) | 78.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 78.3% (-0.2%) | 78.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 78.5% (+0.1%) | 78.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 78.5% (+0.0%) | 78.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 78.5% (+0.0%) | 78.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 78.5% (+0.0%) | 78.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 78.5% (+0.0%) | 78.5% (+0.1%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western MichiganWMU | 99.9% | 93.0% | 40.6% | 2.6% | 78.5% |
| ToledoTOL | 100% | 97.1% | 42.3% | 2.8% | 68.7% |
| OhioOHIO | 99.8% | 71.8% | 17.8% | 0.4% | 20.9% |
| MassachusettsMASS | 99.7% | 69.6% | 16.8% | 0.4% | 12.6% |
| Miami (OH)M-OH | 100% | 81.4% | 25.1% | 0.7% | 12.0% |
| BuffaloBUF | 100% | 95.2% | 35.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% |
| AkronAKR | 100% | 87.9% | 31.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Ball StateBALL | 100% | 77.6% | 18.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| Central MichiganCMU | 100% | 79.8% | 23.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| Eastern MichiganEMU | 100% | 94.1% | 33.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Bowling GreenBGSU | 100% | 93.2% | 25.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Kent StateKENT | 100% | 72.8% | 17.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Sacramento StateSAC | - | 60.0% | 27.8% | 0.6% | <0.1% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western MichiganWMU(0-0) | 27.4% | 45.2% | 21.8% | 5.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.9 |
| ToledoTOL(0-0) | 18.3% | 38.8% | 29.6% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6 |
| OhioOHIO(0-0) | 3.3% | 16.6% | 31.3% | 28.8% | 14.8% | 4.4% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.5 |
| MassachusettsMASS(0-0) | 1.2% | 10.0% | 25.6% | 31.3% | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| Miami (OH)M-OH(0-0) | 0.6% | 7.1% | 21.7% | 31.3% | 24.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| BuffaloBUF(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 4.1% | 14.7% | 28.1% | 29.6% | 17.3% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 3.4 |
| Ball StateBALL(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 4.1% | 14.5% | 27.8% | 29.7% | 17.6% | 5.2% | 0.6% | 3.4 |
| AkronAKR(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 4.1% | 13.8% | 26.3% | 29.1% | 18.7% | 6.4% | 0.9% | 3.3 |
| Eastern MichiganEMU(1-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 8.4% | 24.9% | 36.4% | 23.6% | 5.2% | - | 3.1 |
| Central MichiganCMU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 8.9% | 22.0% | 31.2% | 24.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% | 3.0 |
| Bowling GreenBGSU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 5.5% | 19.4% | 33.5% | 28.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | 2.8 |
| Kent StateKENT(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.0% | 5.3% | 16.1% | 28.4% | 29.3% | 16.1% | 3.7% | 2.6 |
| Sacramento StateSAC(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 12.9% | 30.3% | 36.5% | 16.9% | 1.5 |
Data from 2026-09-17
Who is still alive for the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
As of Week 3, Western Michigan (78.5%), Toledo (68.7%), Ohio (20.9%) and Massachusetts (12.6%) currently have the best odds to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Mid-American Conference Championship Game matchup?
Toledo vs. Western Michigan is the most likely Mid-American Conference Championship Game matchup at 49.9%, followed by Ohio vs. Western Michigan (12.0%) and Ohio vs. Toledo (7.0%).