Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-08-26
Conference Standings
| T1 |  ToledoTOL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 47.7% | |
| T1 |  Western MichiganWMU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 40.9% | |
| T1 |  Miami (OH)M-OH | 0-0 | 0-0 | 29.0% | |
| T1 |  OhioOHIO | 0-0 | 0-0 | 24.6% | |
| T1 |  Sacramento StateSAC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 17.0% | |
| T1 |  BuffaloBUF | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12.7% | |
| T1 |  Central MichiganCMU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.2% | |
| T1 |  Bowling GreenBGSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5.9% | |
| T1 |  AkronAKR | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.2% | |
| T1 |  Eastern MichiganEMU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.1% | |
| T1 |  Ball StateBALL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.7% | |
| T1 |  Kent StateKENT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.3% | |
| T1 |  MassachusettsMASS | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.7% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 47.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 46.9% (-0.8%) | 48.7% (+1.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern MichiganCCG: 55.0% • Scenario: 42.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Eastern MichiganCCG: 55.0% • Scenario: 42.1%
Data from 2026-08-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ToledoTOL | 100% | 98.8% | 67.1% | 9.0% | <0.1% | 47.7% |
| Western MichiganWMU | 100% | 98.4% | 65.1% | 8.1% | - | 40.9% |
| Miami (OH)M-OH | 100% | 97.0% | 59.0% | 5.7% | - | 29.0% |
| OhioOHIO | 100% | 97.4% | 59.8% | 5.7% | - | 24.6% |
| Sacramento StateSAC | 100% | 95.8% | 52.6% | 3.6% | - | 17.0% |
| BuffaloBUF | 100% | 98.6% | 61.1% | 5.8% | - | 12.7% |
| Central MichiganCMU | 100% | 97.8% | 64.5% | 8.0% | - | 9.2% |
| Bowling GreenBGSU | 100% | 98.9% | 63.8% | 6.4% | <0.1% | 5.9% |
| AkronAKR | 100% | 96.6% | 60.0% | 4.9% | - | 3.2% |
| Eastern MichiganEMU | 100% | 97.7% | 62.5% | 5.9% | - | 3.1% |
| Ball StateBALL | 100% | 95.9% | 56.7% | 5.2% | - | 2.7% |
| Kent StateKENT | 100% | 98.2% | 60.9% | 5.9% | - | 2.3% |
| MassachusettsMASS | 100% | 96.3% | 59.5% | 5.1% | <0.1% | 1.7% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ToledoTOL(0-0) | 5.4% | 19.6% | 30.6% | 25.8% | 13.3% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 5.6 |
| Western MichiganWMU(0-0) | 3.7% | 16.2% | 29.1% | 27.9% | 16.1% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 5.4 |
| Miami (OH)M-OH(0-0) | 2.1% | 11.2% | 24.5% | 29.1% | 20.9% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| OhioOHIO(0-0) | 1.4% | 8.8% | 21.6% | 28.8% | 23.7% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Sacramento StateSAC(0-0) | 1.0% | 6.0% | 17.6% | 27.2% | 26.2% | 15.3% | 5.6% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| BuffaloBUF(0-0) | 0.4% | 3.3% | 12.4% | 24.4% | 28.6% | 20.3% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 4.2 |
| Central MichiganCMU(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.0% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 27.7% | 24.5% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 3.8 |
| Bowling GreenBGSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.1% | 5.9% | 17.1% | 28.0% | 27.2% | 15.5% | 4.6% | 0.5% | 3.6 |
| AkronAKR(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 11.3% | 23.0% | 29.0% | 21.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | 3.1 |
| Eastern MichiganEMU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 10.9% | 22.8% | 29.3% | 22.3% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 3.1 |
| Ball StateBALL(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 10.5% | 22.0% | 28.4% | 23.1% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 3.0 |
| Kent StateKENT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 8.9% | 20.6% | 29.1% | 24.6% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 2.9 |
| MassachusettsMASS(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 7.8% | 19.3% | 29.2% | 26.2% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 2.8 |
Data from 2026-08-26