Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-11-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  OhioOHIO | 4-0 | 6-2 | 46.2% | |
| 2 |  Western MichiganWMU | 4-1 | 6-3 | 69.0% | |
| T3 |  ToledoTOL | 3-1 | 6-2 | 62.6% | |
| T3 |  Miami (OH)M-OH | 3-1 | 5-3 | 12.8% | |
| T3 |  BuffaloBUF | 3-1 | 5-3 | 9.2% | |
| 6 |  Eastern MichiganEMU | 3-2 | 4-5 | 0.2% | |
| 7 |  Ball StateBALL | 2-2 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  Bowling GreenBGSU | 2-3 | 2-7 | - | |
| T8 |  Kent StateKENT | 2-3 | 3-6 | - | |
| T10 |  Central MichiganCMU | 1-3 | 3-5 | - | |
| T10 |  MassachusettsMASS | 1-3 | 4-4 | - | |
| 12 |  Sacramento StateSAC | 1-5 | 2-7 | - | |
| 13 |  AkronAKR | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 3Tuesday, November 3 | |||
| 68.0% (-1.0%) | 74.9% (+5.9%) | ||
| 66.2% (-2.9%) | 70.3% (+1.3%) | ||
| Wed, Nov 4Wednesday, November 4 | |||
| 69.2% (+0.2%) | 69.0% (-0.1%) | ||
| 68.9% (-0.1%) | 75.8% (+6.8%) | ||
| 69.2% (+0.2%) | 68.8% (-0.2%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
AkronSacramento StateCentral MichiganMiami (OH)MassachusettsCCG: 83.1% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AkronCCG: 74.7% • Scenario: 14.3%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western MichiganWMU | - | 97.9% | 21.9% | 0.2% | 69.0% |
| ToledoTOL | - | 99.9% | 32.5% | 0.3% | 62.6% |
| OhioOHIO | 100% | 71.1% | 4.9% | <0.1% | 46.2% |
| Miami (OH)M-OH | - | 100% | 17.0% | <0.1% | 12.8% |
| BuffaloBUF | - | 63.7% | 9.4% | <0.1% | 9.2% |
| Eastern MichiganEMU | - | - | 6.2% | - | 0.2% |
| Ball StateBALL | - | - | 9.8% | - | <0.1% |
| AkronAKR | - | - | - | - | - |
| Bowling GreenBGSU | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
| Central MichiganCMU | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
| Kent StateKENT | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
| MassachusettsMASS | - | - | - | - | - |
| Sacramento StateSAC | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2026-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OhioOHIO(4-0) | 14.6% | 42.0% | 35.1% | 7.8% | 0.5% | - | - | - | - | 6.6 |
| Western MichiganWMU(4-1) | - | 63.4% | 32.0% | 4.4% | 0.2% | - | - | - | - | 6.6 |
| ToledoTOL(3-1) | - | 48.5% | 43.4% | 7.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.4 |
| BuffaloBUF(3-1) | - | 9.3% | 34.4% | 37.7% | 16.2% | 2.4% | - | - | - | 5.3 |
| Miami (OH)M-OH(3-1) | - | 7.0% | 33.8% | 40.8% | 16.5% | 2.0% | - | - | - | 5.3 |
| Eastern MichiganEMU(3-2) | - | - | 3.8% | 37.9% | 48.5% | 9.9% | - | - | - | 4.4 |
| Central MichiganCMU(1-3) | - | - | - | 11.2% | 36.8% | 37.9% | 13.3% | 0.8% | - | 3.4 |
| Bowling GreenBGSU(2-3) | - | - | - | 2.6% | 38.3% | 47.8% | 11.3% | - | - | 3.3 |
| MassachusettsMASS(1-3) | - | - | - | 3.4% | 32.8% | 44.4% | 17.4% | 2.0% | - | 3.2 |
| Ball StateBALL(2-2) | - | - | 0.4% | 5.9% | 25.5% | 43.1% | 25.0% | - | - | 3.1 |
| Kent StateKENT(2-3) | - | - | - | 0.8% | 9.9% | 38.9% | 50.3% | - | - | 2.6 |
| Sacramento StateSAC(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.1% | 8.2% | 91.7% | - | 1.1 |
| AkronAKR(0-4) | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 1.3% | 11.3% | 39.5% | 47.9% | 0.7 |
Data from 2026-11-02
Who is still alive for the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
As of Latest, Western Michigan (69.0%), Toledo (62.6%), Ohio (46.2%) and Miami (OH) (12.8%) currently have the best odds to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Mid-American Conference Championship Game matchup?
Toledo vs. Western Michigan is the most likely Mid-American Conference Championship Game matchup at 39.4%, followed by Ohio vs. Western Michigan (25.7%) and Ohio vs. Toledo (12.9%).
What is the biggest game in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game race this week?
Toledo's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Sacramento State would put its Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 63.1%, while a loss would drop them to 33.9%.
Which Mid-American Conference contender can least afford to lose again?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Miami (OH)'s Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 17.0%.