Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-11-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  New MexicoUNM | 4-0 | 7-1 | 94.0% | |
| 2 |  WyomingWYO | 4-1 | 5-3 | 8.0% | |
| 3 |  UNLVUNLV | 3-1 | 5-3 | 25.4% | |
| 4 |  North Dakota StateNDSU | 4-2 | 7-2 | 64.2% | |
| 5 |  Air ForceAF | 3-2 | 6-2 | 6.6% | |
| 6 |  NevadaNEV | 2-2 | 3-5 | 1.1% | |
| 7 |  San José StateSJSU | 2-3 | 4-5 | 0.7% | |
| 8 |  Hawai'iHAW | 1-4 | 2-6 | - | |
| T9 |  Northern IllinoisNIU | 0-4 | 0-8 | - | |
| T9 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 96.3% (+2.3%) | 81.7% (-12.3%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 93.9% (-0.1%) | 94.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 94.0% (-0.0%) | 94.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 94.0% (-0.0%) | 94.0% (+0.1%) | ||
| 95.3% (+1.3%) | 93.8% (-0.2%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'iNew MexicoSan José StateWyomingCCG: 97.2% • Scenario: 9.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New MexicoCCG: 96.1% • Scenario: 84.0%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New MexicoUNM | 100% | 100% | - | 38.4% | - | 0.7% | - | 94.0% |
| North Dakota StateNDSU | - | - | 95.0% | - | 29.8% | - | <0.1% | 64.2% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 100% | - | 40.9% | - | 3.0% | - | 25.4% |
| WyomingWYO | - | 100% | - | 40.7% | - | 0.4% | - | 8.0% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | 51.4% | - | 0.7% | - | 6.6% |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | 48.5% | - | 0.1% | - | 1.1% |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | - | - | 72.2% | - | <0.1% | 0.7% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Northern IllinoisNIU | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2026-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 4-5 | 3-5 | 3-6 | 2-6 | 2-7 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New MexicoUNM(4-0) | 55.3% | 35.4% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.5 |
| North Dakota StateNDSU(4-2) | - | - | 55.8% | 0.0% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| UNLVUNLV(3-1) | - | 6.7% | 0.0% | 42.8% | 0.0% | 38.0% | 0.0% | 11.4% | 0.0% | 1.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.4 |
| WyomingWYO(4-1) | - | 1.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 65.0% | 0.0% | 17.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| Air ForceAF(3-2) | - | - | - | 11.8% | 0.0% | 70.5% | 0.0% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | - | - | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| NevadaNEV(2-2) | - | - | - | 2.2% | 0.0% | 19.3% | 0.0% | 46.0% | 0.0% | 28.2% | 0.0% | 4.2% | - | - | - | 3.9 |
| San José StateSJSU(2-3) | - | - | - | - | 1.0% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 37.2% | 0.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | - | - | 3.5 |
| Hawai'iHAW(1-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8.8% | 0.0% | 39.4% | 0.0% | 45.2% | 0.0% | 6.6% | - | 2.5 |
| Northern IllinoisNIU(0-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 21.0% | 0.0% | 55.1% | 21.4% | 1.0 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 41.9% | 44.2% | 0.7 |
Data from 2026-11-02
Who is still alive for the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
As of Latest, New Mexico (94.0%), North Dakota State (64.2%) and UNLV (25.4%) currently have the best odds to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Mountain West Conference Championship Game matchup?
New Mexico vs. North Dakota State is the most likely Mountain West Conference Championship Game matchup at 59.8%, followed by New Mexico vs. UNLV (22.1%) and New Mexico vs. Wyoming (6.4%).
What is the biggest game in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game race this week?
Wyoming's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating UNLV would put its Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 38.8%, while a loss would drop them to 2.4%.
Which Mountain West Conference contender can least afford to lose again?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts North Dakota State's Mountain West Conference Championship Game odds at 95.0%; even one more loss drops that to 29.8%.