Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-08-26
Conference Standings
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 0-0 | 0-0 | 62.9% | |
| T1 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-0 | 0-0 | 43.7% | |
| T1 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-0 | 0-0 | 35.7% | |
| T1 |  Air ForceAF | 0-0 | 0-0 | 21.6% | |
| T1 |  North Dakota StateNDSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15.4% | |
| T1 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6.6% | |
| T1 |  WyomingWYO | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5.0% | |
| T1 |  San José StateSJSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4.0% | |
| T1 |  Northern IllinoisNIU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.3% | |
| T1 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.8% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 62.9%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 62.9% (+0.0%) | 62.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 63.0% (+0.1%) | 62.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.6% (-0.3%) | 62.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 63.1% (+0.2%) | 62.7% (-0.2%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-0 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV | - | 100% | - | 99.9% | - | 83.4% | - | 21.3% | - | <0.1% | 62.9% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 100% | - | 99.1% | - | 75.1% | - | 13.2% | - | <0.1% | 43.7% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 100% | - | 99.7% | - | 80.2% | - | 17.8% | - | <0.1% | 35.7% |
| Air ForceAF | - | 100% | - | 98.2% | - | 68.5% | - | 9.1% | - | <0.1% | 21.6% |
| North Dakota StateNDSU | 100% | - | 100% | - | 96.5% | - | 41.3% | - | 0.5% | - | 15.4% |
| NevadaNEV | - | 100% | - | 99.8% | - | 79.8% | - | 16.0% | - | <0.1% | 6.6% |
| WyomingWYO | - | 100% | - | 99.2% | - | 79.4% | - | 16.1% | - | <0.1% | 5.0% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | - | 100% | - | 96.7% | - | 47.0% | - | 0.8% | - | 4.0% |
| Northern IllinoisNIU | - | 100% | - | 99.1% | - | 66.7% | - | 9.0% | - | <0.1% | 3.3% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | 100% | - | 97.5% | - | 62.0% | - | 7.6% | - | <0.1% | 1.8% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-0 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 4-5 | 3-5 | 3-6 | 2-6 | 2-7 | 1-7 | 1-8 | 0-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV(0-0) | - | 7.2% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 32.3% | 0.0% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 10.1% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 5.8 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-0) | - | 3.7% | 0.0% | 15.5% | 0.0% | 27.9% | 0.0% | 28.3% | 0.0% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | 5.4 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-0) | - | 1.9% | 0.0% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 23.4% | 0.0% | 29.3% | 0.0% | 22.0% | 0.0% | 10.2% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | 5.0 |
| North Dakota StateNDSU(0-0) | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 27.2% | 0.0% | 25.4% | 0.0% | 15.2% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| Air ForceAF(0-0) | - | 0.9% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 28.0% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 14.9% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | 4.6 |
| San José StateSJSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 24.7% | 0.0% | 27.4% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 3.4 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 25.2% | 0.0% | 28.5% | 0.0% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% | - | 3.3 |
| WyomingWYO(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 29.2% | 0.0% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 1.6% | - | 3.1 |
| Northern IllinoisNIU(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 10.2% | 0.0% | 22.5% | 0.0% | 29.3% | 0.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 1.8% | - | 3.1 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 28.9% | 0.0% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 3.1% | - | 2.8 |
Data from 2026-08-26