Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17
Conference Standings
| T1 |  North Dakota StateNDSU | 1-0 | 3-0 | 75.3% | |
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 1-0 | 1-2 | 21.8% | |
| T3 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-0 | 2-0 | 71.5% | |
| T3 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 1-1 | 16.7% | |
| T3 |  Air ForceAF | 0-1 | 1-1 | 8.0% | |
| T3 |  San José StateSJSU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 3.4% | |
| T3 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3.1% | |
| T3 |  WyomingWYO | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.1% | |
| T3 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.1% | |
| T3 |  Northern IllinoisNIU | 0-0 | 0-2 | <0.1% | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 75.2% (-0.1%) | 75.3% (+0.1%) | ||
| 75.6% (+0.3%) | 75.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 75.3% (+0.0%) | 75.2% (-0.1%) | ||
| 75.1% (-0.2%) | 75.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 74.8% (-0.5%) | 75.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 75.3% (+0.0%) | 75.2% (-0.1%) | ||
| 75.3% (+0.0%) | 75.3% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-0 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota StateNDSU | 100% | - | 100% | - | 93.3% | - | 27.9% | - | 0.2% | - | 75.3% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 100% | - | 99.0% | - | 65.5% | - | 9.3% | - | <0.1% | 71.5% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 100% | - | 97.8% | - | 47.0% | - | 3.3% | - | - | 21.8% |
| NevadaNEV | - | 100% | - | 98.8% | - | 50.9% | - | 3.5% | - | - | 16.7% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | 99.9% | - | 46.9% | - | 1.8% | - | - | 8.0% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | - | 100% | - | 88.5% | - | 21.7% | - | <0.1% | - | 3.4% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - | - | 98.9% | - | 46.3% | - | 1.0% | - | - | 3.1% |
| WyomingWYO | - | 100% | - | 100% | - | 50.4% | - | 2.3% | - | - | 0.1% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | 100% | - | 97.7% | - | 42.0% | - | 1.4% | - | - | 0.1% |
| Northern IllinoisNIU | - | 100% | - | 90.7% | - | 32.2% | - | 1.2% | - | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-0 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 4-5 | 3-5 | 3-6 | 2-6 | 2-7 | 1-7 | 1-8 | 0-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota StateNDSU(1-0) | 7.8% | 0.0% | 28.5% | 0.0% | 35.5% | 0.0% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | - | 7.1 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-0) | - | 16.1% | 0.0% | 34.5% | 0.0% | 30.3% | 0.0% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 6.4 |
| UNLVUNLV(1-0) | - | 1.0% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 24.6% | 0.0% | 34.0% | 0.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | - | 0.7% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 30.1% | 0.0% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | 4.6 |
| Air ForceAF(0-1) | - | - | - | 1.6% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 30.7% | 0.0% | 32.6% | 0.0% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | 4.3 |
| San José StateSJSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 19.1% | 0.0% | 29.2% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.8 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-1) | - | - | - | 0.5% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 31.6% | 0.0% | 28.0% | 0.0% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | - | 3.7 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 34.3% | 0.0% | 24.2% | 0.0% | 6.5% | - | 2.1 |
| WyomingWYO(0-0) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 34.6% | 0.0% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 7.7% | - | 2.0 |
| Northern IllinoisNIU(0-0) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 21.5% | 0.0% | 33.6% | 0.0% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 8.3% | - | 2.0 |
Data from 2026-09-17
Who is still alive for the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
As of Week 3, North Dakota State (75.3%), New Mexico (71.5%) and UNLV (21.8%) currently have the best odds to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Mountain West Conference Championship Game matchup?
New Mexico vs. North Dakota State is the most likely Mountain West Conference Championship Game matchup at 50.0%, followed by New Mexico vs. UNLV (9.8%) and North Dakota State vs. UNLV (9.7%).