Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 46.2% | |
| T1 |  App StateAPP | 0-0 | 2-0 | 24.3% | |
| T1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 1-1 | 22.8% | |
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 0-0 | 1-1 | 21.7% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-0 | 1-1 | 20.6% | |
| T1 |  South AlabamaUSA | 0-0 | 1-1 | 13.2% | |
| T1 |  TroyTROY | 0-0 | 2-0 | 11.6% | |
| T1 |  Old DominionODU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10.5% | |
| T1 |  Arkansas StateARST | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10.1% | |
| T1 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| T1 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-0 | 2-0 | 5.1% | |
| T1 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4.6% | |
| T1 |  MarshallMRSH | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.8% | |
| T1 |  UL MonroeULM | 0-0 | 0-2 | <0.1% | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 46.2% (-0.0%) | 46.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.1% (-0.2%) | 46.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.4% (+0.2%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.1%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.1%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.1% (-0.2%) | 46.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.2% (-0.0%) | 46.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.2% (-0.1%) | 46.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.0%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.2% (-0.1%) | 46.3% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 78.8% | 42.1% | 15.0% | 3.2% | <0.1% | 46.2% |
| App StateAPP | 100% | 74.2% | 32.1% | 6.9% | 0.4% | - | 24.3% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 81.5% | 47.3% | 18.1% | 3.7% | - | 22.8% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 78.1% | 39.7% | 13.3% | 2.6% | - | 21.7% |
| Southern MissUSM | 100% | 83.9% | 55.8% | 26.4% | 6.2% | <0.1% | 20.6% |
| South AlabamaUSA | 100% | 78.7% | 39.1% | 13.0% | 2.6% | - | 13.2% |
| TroyTROY | 100% | 84.9% | 56.9% | 21.4% | 4.4% | <0.1% | 11.6% |
| Old DominionODU | 100% | 75.5% | 38.6% | 13.3% | 2.5% | <0.1% | 10.5% |
| Arkansas StateARST | 100% | 76.7% | 35.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | - | 10.1% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | 100% | 76.4% | 37.1% | 12.7% | 2.4% | <0.1% | 8.5% |
| Georgia StateGAST | 100% | 69.0% | 31.4% | 10.3% | 2.1% | <0.1% | 5.1% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | 100% | 70.5% | 34.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | <0.1% | 4.6% |
| MarshallMRSH | 100% | 66.3% | 21.9% | 4.7% | 0.5% | - | 0.8% |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | 66.7% | 23.1% | 3.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(0-0) | 8.5% | 25.9% | 32.6% | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.0 |
| App StateAPP(0-0) | 3.0% | 14.0% | 27.4% | 29.2% | 18.2% | 6.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.3 |
| LouisianaUL(0-0) | 1.5% | 8.9% | 21.9% | 29.3% | 23.3% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | 1.2% | 7.5% | 19.7% | 28.5% | 24.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.2% | 14.2% | 25.9% | 28.2% | 18.5% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| South AlabamaUSA(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.0% | 13.9% | 25.9% | 28.6% | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.3% | <0.1% | 4.3 |
| Arkansas StateARST(0-0) | 0.3% | 3.0% | 11.6% | 24.1% | 29.4% | 21.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | <0.1% | 4.1 |
| Old DominionODU(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.9% | 11.0% | 23.0% | 28.7% | 21.8% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 4.1 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.1% | 9.0% | 20.4% | 28.1% | 24.0% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 3.9 |
| TroyTROY(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.6% | 7.9% | 20.2% | 29.6% | 25.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 3.8 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 17.0% | 27.4% | 27.0% | 15.7% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 3.6 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 14.5% | 25.8% | 28.0% | 18.4% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 3.4 |
| MarshallMRSH(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 6.7% | 18.7% | 30.1% | 27.6% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 2.8 |
| UL MonroeULM(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.7% | 19.0% | 40.6% | 34.9% | 1.0 |
Data from 2026-09-17
Who is still alive for the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
As of Week 3, James Madison (46.2%), App State (24.3%), Louisiana Tech (22.8%) and Louisiana (21.7%) currently have the best odds to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Sun Belt Conference Championship Game matchup?
James Madison vs. Louisiana Tech is the most likely Sun Belt Conference Championship Game matchup at 10.4%, followed by James Madison vs. Louisiana (10.0%) and James Madison vs. Southern Miss (9.7%).