Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-11-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 4-0 | 6-2 | 93.3% | |
| 2 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 3-1 | 4-4 | 6.3% | |
| 3 |  James MadisonJMU | 4-2 | 7-2 | 92.1% | |
| T4 |  Southern MissUSM | 2-2 | 3-5 | 1.8% | |
| T4 |  Arkansas StateARST | 2-2 | 4-4 | 1.4% | |
| T4 |  LouisianaUL | 2-2 | 5-3 | 1.4% | |
| T4 |  TroyTROY | 2-2 | 4-4 | 1.3% | |
| T4 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 2-2 | 3-5 | 1.3% | |
| T4 |  South AlabamaUSA | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0.9% | |
| T4 |  App StateAPP | 2-2 | 5-3 | 0.3% | |
| T4 |  MarshallMRSH | 2-2 | 5-3 | - | |
| T12 |  Georgia StateGAST | 1-3 | 4-4 | - | |
| T12 |  UL MonroeULM | 1-3 | 1-7 | - | |
| 14 |  Old DominionODU | 1-5 | 2-7 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 5Thursday, November 5 | |||
| 93.3% (+0.0%) | 93.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 93.5% (+0.2%) | 93.2% (-0.1%) | ||
| 93.2% (-0.0%) | 93.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 95.0% (+1.7%) | 93.2% (-0.1%) | ||
| 93.2% (-0.0%) | 93.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 98.5% (+5.2%) | 82.8% (-10.5%) | ||
| 90.7% (-2.6%) | 93.9% (+0.7%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana TechSouthern MissGeorgia StateMarshallUL MonroeLouisianaOld DominionCCG: 99.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Louisiana TechCCG: 98.5% • Scenario: 66.9%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 100% | 89.1% | 43.3% | - | 93.3% |
| James MadisonJMU | - | - | 100% | 61.5% | 8.1% | 92.1% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 6.3% |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | 31.6% | 15.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | - | 11.3% | 2.4% | - | 1.4% |
| LouisianaUL | - | - | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| TroyTROY | - | - | 22.8% | 5.3% | - | 1.3% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | - | 16.1% | 5.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | - | 11.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | 0.9% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MarshallMRSH | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2026-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana TechLT(4-0) | 22.7% | 44.2% | 26.7% | 6.0% | 0.4% | - | - | - | 6.8 |
| James MadisonJMU(4-2) | - | - | 80.9% | 18.1% | 1.0% | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(3-1) | - | 15.8% | 38.8% | 33.0% | 11.2% | 1.1% | - | - | 5.6 |
| LouisianaUL(2-2) | - | - | 38.3% | 43.7% | 15.8% | 2.1% | <0.1% | - | 5.2 |
| App StateAPP(2-2) | - | - | 15.8% | 40.4% | 33.7% | 9.7% | 0.4% | - | 4.6 |
| Arkansas StateARST(2-2) | - | - | 5.6% | 31.7% | 43.9% | 18.0% | 0.9% | - | 4.2 |
| South AlabamaUSA(2-2) | - | - | 3.4% | 21.3% | 39.2% | 28.7% | 7.4% | - | 3.8 |
| MarshallMRSH(2-2) | - | - | 2.0% | 17.8% | 41.3% | 32.7% | 6.2% | - | 3.8 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(2-2) | - | - | 0.7% | 11.0% | 42.1% | 38.2% | 8.1% | - | 3.6 |
| TroyTROY(2-2) | - | - | 2.3% | 14.4% | 34.1% | 35.5% | 13.7% | - | 3.6 |
| Southern MissUSM(2-2) | - | - | 0.3% | 5.9% | 30.1% | 44.2% | 19.4% | - | 3.2 |
| Georgia StateGAST(1-3) | - | - | - | 3.2% | 18.0% | 36.7% | 32.1% | 10.0% | 2.7 |
| Old DominionODU(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 11.0% | 48.5% | 40.5% | 1.7 |
| UL MonroeULM(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.3% | 28.8% | 67.8% | 1.4 |
Data from 2026-11-02
Who is still alive for the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
As of Latest, Louisiana Tech (93.3%), James Madison (92.1%), Georgia Southern (6.3%) and Southern Miss (1.8%) currently have the best odds to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Sun Belt Conference Championship Game matchup?
James Madison vs. Louisiana Tech is the most likely Sun Belt Conference Championship Game matchup at 85.9%, followed by Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Tech (5.8%) and James Madison vs. Southern Miss (1.6%).
What is the biggest game in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race this week?
Louisiana Tech's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Troy would put its Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 98.5%, while a loss would drop them to 82.8%.
Which team can clinch a Sun Belt Conference Championship Game spot as soon as this week?
James Madison can clinch a spot in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game as soon as this week if Georgia State, Marshall and Old Dominion all win.
Which Sun Belt Conference contender can least afford to lose again?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts James Madison's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 86.5%.