Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-08-26
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 34.2% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-0 | 0-0 | 29.0% | |
| T1 |  Old DominionODU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 26.2% | |
| T1 |  TroyTROY | 0-0 | 0-0 | 18.5% | |
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15.7% | |
| T1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13.1% | |
| T1 |  Arkansas StateARST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12.6% | |
| T1 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11.7% | |
| T1 |  MarshallMRSH | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10.2% | |
| T1 |  South AlabamaUSA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| T1 |  App StateAPP | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.4% | |
| T1 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5.7% | |
| T1 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.7% | |
| T1 |  UL MonroeULM | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.3% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 34.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 83.3% | 50.4% | 21.2% | 5.0% | <0.1% | 34.2% |
| Southern MissUSM | 100% | 85.9% | 58.7% | 28.9% | 7.6% | <0.1% | 29.0% |
| Old DominionODU | 100% | 82.1% | 48.1% | 20.3% | 4.7% | <0.1% | 26.2% |
| TroyTROY | 100% | 84.7% | 54.0% | 21.6% | 5.1% | <0.1% | 18.5% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 79.5% | 37.1% | 11.9% | 2.3% | - | 15.7% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 83.3% | 49.5% | 20.9% | 5.0% | <0.1% | 13.1% |
| Arkansas StateARST | 100% | 80.0% | 36.7% | 11.1% | 2.1% | - | 12.6% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | 100% | 80.0% | 43.6% | 15.7% | 3.4% | <0.1% | 11.7% |
| MarshallMRSH | 100% | 76.1% | 29.6% | 8.6% | 1.4% | - | 10.2% |
| South AlabamaUSA | 100% | 81.3% | 43.1% | 15.8% | 3.5% | <0.1% | 9.8% |
| App StateAPP | 100% | 79.9% | 36.1% | 10.4% | 1.4% | - | 9.4% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | 100% | 79.5% | 42.7% | 15.8% | 3.3% | <0.1% | 5.7% |
| Georgia StateGAST | 100% | 78.8% | 44.3% | 15.3% | 3.5% | <0.1% | 2.7% |
| UL MonroeULM | 100% | 86.7% | 47.9% | 19.6% | 4.1% | <0.1% | 1.3% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(0-0) | 2.9% | 13.3% | 26.2% | 28.5% | 19.0% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.2 |
| Old DominionODU(0-0) | 1.7% | 9.2% | 21.3% | 28.0% | 23.2% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-0) | 1.2% | 7.5% | 19.3% | 28.1% | 24.9% | 13.5% | 4.7% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| LouisianaUL(0-0) | 0.9% | 6.0% | 16.8% | 27.1% | 26.3% | 15.8% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 4.5 |
| Arkansas StateARST(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.3% | 14.1% | 25.5% | 27.8% | 18.6% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| TroyTROY(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.2% | 13.9% | 25.3% | 27.8% | 18.8% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| MarshallMRSH(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.0% | 13.7% | 25.4% | 28.1% | 18.9% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 4.3 |
| App StateAPP(0-0) | 0.3% | 3.0% | 10.8% | 22.6% | 28.5% | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 4.0 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.9% | 10.5% | 22.0% | 28.0% | 22.3% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 4.0 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.6% | 9.9% | 20.9% | 27.7% | 22.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 3.9 |
| South AlabamaUSA(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.1% | 8.7% | 19.9% | 28.1% | 24.4% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 3.8 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 13.8% | 24.8% | 28.0% | 18.9% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 3.3 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 17.6% | 28.0% | 27.3% | 14.7% | 3.4% | 2.7 |
| UL MonroeULM(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 10.0% | 22.7% | 31.2% | 24.3% | 8.3% | 2.1 |
Data from 2026-08-26