American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-08-26

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1TulaneTULN0-00-044.6%
T1NavyNAVY0-00-032.7%
T1East CarolinaECU0-00-029.4%
T1South FloridaUSF0-00-025.9%
T1MemphisMEM0-00-020.5%
T1UT San AntonioUTSA0-00-012.5%
T1ArmyARMY0-00-010.3%
T1North TexasUNT0-00-09.1%
T1TulsaTLSA0-00-05.0%
T1TempleTEM0-00-04.7%
T1FL AtlanticFAU0-00-02.5%
T1RiceRICE0-00-01.3%
T1CharlotteCLT0-00-00.9%
T1UABUAB0-00-00.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

19.9%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
28.7%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
37.5%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
46.1%
East CarolinaECU
vs
NAVYNavy
56.0%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
64.8%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida
74.3%
East CarolinaECU
vs
USFSouth Florida
83.8%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
93.6%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
103.0%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
113.0%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
122.8%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
132.5%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
142.2%
NavyNAVY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
151.9%
East CarolinaECU
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 44.6%
Game
TulaneCCG OddsAway
TulaneCCG OddsHome
MemphisMEM@UNLVUNLV
44.4%
(-0.3%)		44.8%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-4Overall
TulaneTULN--100%-97.9%-60.6%-4.4%-44.6%
NavyNAVY99.9%94.0%-53.6%-16.2%-0.6%--32.7%
East CarolinaECU--99.9%-90.9%-33.0%-0.6%-29.4%
South FloridaUSF--100%-98.7%-64.6%-5.7%-25.9%
MemphisMEM--100%-99.5%-66.3%-5.4%-20.5%
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-97.2%-51.6%-2.7%-12.5%
ArmyARMY100%98.4%-72.4%-29.5%-2.6%--10.3%
North TexasUNT--100%-93.3%-33.5%-0.6%-9.1%
TulsaTLSA--100%-97.0%-46.8%-1.9%-5.0%
TempleTEM--100%-96.5%-48.4%-1.7%-4.7%
FL AtlanticFAU--100%-98.7%-66.1%-5.9%-2.5%
RiceRICE--100%-97.8%-59.2%-4.8%<0.1%1.3%
CharlotteCLT--100%-98.7%-68.7%-6.1%-0.9%
UABUAB--100%-100%-68.8%-6.3%-0.6%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-81-70-90-8Avg Wins
NavyNAVY(0-0)2.9%12.7%0.0%24.8%0.0%27.6%0.0%19.6%0.0%9.0%0.0%2.8%0.0%0.6%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.1
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%5.5%0.0%19.8%0.0%30.6%0.0%25.9%0.0%13.0%0.0%4.2%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%5.6
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%4.0%0.0%17.1%0.0%29.1%0.0%27.5%0.0%15.6%0.0%5.3%0.0%1.1%0.0%0.1%-0.0%5.5
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%1.5%0.0%8.9%0.0%21.7%0.0%29.0%0.0%23.4%0.0%11.6%0.0%3.4%0.0%0.5%-<0.1%4.8
MemphisMEM(0-0)-0.0%0.9%0.0%6.1%0.0%18.1%0.0%28.5%0.0%26.4%0.0%14.6%0.0%4.6%0.0%0.7%-<0.1%4.6
North TexasUNT(0-0)-0.0%0.5%0.0%3.9%0.0%14.6%0.0%26.9%0.0%28.7%0.0%17.9%0.0%6.3%0.0%1.2%-<0.1%4.4
ArmyARMY(0-0)0.1%1.2%0.0%5.7%0.0%14.7%0.0%24.0%0.0%26.0%0.0%18.2%0.0%8.0%0.0%1.9%0.0%0.2%0.0%4.4
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%0.5%0.0%4.2%0.0%13.9%0.0%25.5%0.0%27.6%0.0%18.9%0.0%7.5%0.0%1.8%-0.1%4.3
TempleTEM(0-0)-0.0%0.1%0.0%1.2%0.0%6.4%0.0%18.0%0.0%28.7%0.0%26.8%0.0%14.3%0.0%4.0%-0.4%3.7
TulsaTLSA(0-0)-0.0%0.1%0.0%1.4%0.0%6.8%0.0%18.1%0.0%27.9%0.0%26.3%0.0%14.6%0.0%4.4%-0.5%3.7
FL AtlanticFAU(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%2.4%0.0%9.0%0.0%20.3%0.0%29.1%0.0%24.7%0.0%11.7%-2.3%2.9
RiceRICE(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%1.4%0.0%6.2%0.0%16.6%0.0%27.3%0.0%28.2%0.0%16.1%-4.0%2.6
CharlotteCLT(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%4.0%0.0%12.6%0.0%25.1%0.0%30.5%0.0%20.8%-6.1%2.3
UABUAB(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.1%0.0%10.7%0.0%23.8%0.0%31.9%0.0%23.0%-6.9%2.2

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com