American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17
Conference Standings
| T1 |  South FloridaUSF | 1-0 | 2-0 | 50.1% | |
| T1 |  Florida AtlanticFAU | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1.3% | |
| T3 |  North TexasUNT | 0-0 | 1-1 | 34.4% | |
| T3 |  MemphisMEM | 0-0 | 2-1 | 30.3% | |
| T3 |  TulaneTULN | 0-0 | 1-1 | 26.7% | |
| T3 |  UTSAUTSA | 0-0 | 2-0 | 15.1% | |
| T3 |  East CarolinaECU | 0-0 | 0-2 | 12.9% | |
| T3 |  TulsaTLSA | 0-0 | 2-0 | 12.8% | |
| T3 |  ArmyARMY | 0-1 | 1-1 | 7.4% | |
| T3 |  TempleTEM | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5.1% | |
| T3 |  NavyNAVY | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3.8% | |
| T3 |  RiceRICE | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
| T3 |  UABUAB | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
| T3 |  CharlotteCLT | 0-0 | 0-2 | <0.1% | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 50.1% (+0.0%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.0% (-0.1%) | 50.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.1%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.0%) | 50.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.0%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.1%) | 50.1% (-0.1%) | ||
| 50.0% (-0.2%) | 50.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 50.3% (+0.2%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.0%) | 50.0% (-0.1%) | ||
| 50.3% (+0.1%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.1% (-0.1%) | 50.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 49.7% (-0.5%) | 50.2% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-3 | 6-2 | 5-4 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South FloridaUSF | - | 100% | - | 98.8% | - | 63.9% | - | 3.3% | 50.1% |
| North TexasUNT | - | 100% | - | 88.1% | - | 17.5% | - | <0.1% | 34.4% |
| MemphisMEM | - | 100% | - | 96.9% | - | 43.6% | - | 0.8% | 30.3% |
| TulaneTULN | - | 100% | - | 99.5% | - | 59.5% | - | 1.8% | 26.7% |
| UTSAUTSA | - | 100% | - | 97.3% | - | 43.3% | - | 0.8% | 15.1% |
| East CarolinaECU | - | 100% | - | 88.8% | - | 17.8% | - | <0.1% | 12.9% |
| TulsaTLSA | - | 100% | - | 91.5% | - | 28.2% | - | 0.3% | 12.8% |
| ArmyARMY | 97.3% | - | 58.7% | - | 13.7% | - | 0.7% | - | 7.4% |
| TempleTEM | - | 100% | - | 90.9% | - | 21.2% | - | <0.1% | 5.1% |
| NavyNAVY | 95.4% | - | 47.9% | - | 12.9% | - | 0.2% | - | 3.8% |
| Florida AtlanticFAU | - | 100% | - | 98.4% | - | 61.5% | - | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| RiceRICE | - | - | - | 100% | - | 60.7% | - | 3.9% | <0.1% |
| UABUAB | - | - | - | 100% | - | 58.5% | - | 2.8% | <0.1% |
| CharlotteCLT | - | 100% | - | 100% | - | 57.3% | - | 3.3% | <0.1% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-3 | 6-2 | 5-4 | 5-3 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 1-8 | 1-7 | 0-9 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North TexasUNT(0-0) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 24.5% | 0.0% | 34.6% | 0.0% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| South FloridaUSF(1-0) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 22.5% | 0.0% | 32.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | - | <0.1% | - | - | 5.8 |
| MemphisMEM(0-0) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 29.1% | 0.0% | 29.6% | 0.0% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | 0.0% | 5.4 |
| TulaneTULN(0-0) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | - | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| East CarolinaECU(0-0) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 23.2% | 0.0% | 31.5% | 0.0% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | - | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| TulsaTLSA(0-0) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 29.9% | 0.0% | 25.9% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | - | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| ArmyARMY(0-1) | 0.9% | - | 6.4% | 0.0% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 28.4% | 0.0% | 26.0% | 0.0% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 4.6 |
| UTSAUTSA(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 28.4% | 0.0% | 26.1% | 0.0% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | - | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| TempleTEM(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 26.5% | 0.0% | 31.9% | 0.0% | 20.1% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | - | <0.1% | 4.2 |
| NavyNAVY(0-1) | 0.4% | - | 3.6% | 0.0% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 24.7% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 4.2 |
| Florida AtlanticFAU(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 22.1% | 0.0% | 35.3% | 0.0% | 27.0% | - | 6.5% | - | - | 3.0 |
| UABUAB(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 33.5% | 0.0% | 34.2% | - | 11.5% | 1.7 |
| RiceRICE(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 13.5% | 0.0% | 29.2% | 0.0% | 34.9% | - | 17.8% | 1.5 |
| CharlotteCLT(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 27.6% | 0.0% | 37.9% | - | 21.1% | 1.4 |
Data from 2026-09-17
Who is still alive for the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
As of Week 3, South Florida (50.1%), North Texas (34.4%), Memphis (30.3%) and Tulane (26.7%) currently have the best odds to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely American Athletic Conference Championship Game matchup?
North Texas vs. South Florida is the most likely American Athletic Conference Championship Game matchup at 12.3%, followed by Memphis vs. South Florida (10.0%) and South Florida vs. Tulane (9.3%).