American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-11-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  UTSAUTSA | 4-0 | 7-1 | 76.9% | |
| T1 |  North TexasUNT | 4-0 | 6-2 | 67.6% | |
| 3 |  MemphisMEM | 4-1 | 7-2 | 44.5% | |
| 4 |  ArmyARMY | 4-2 | 5-3 | 4.0% | |
| T5 |  South FloridaUSF | 2-2 | 6-2 | 4.0% | |
| T5 |  TulaneTULN | 2-2 | 4-4 | 2.2% | |
| T5 |  East CarolinaECU | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0.4% | |
| T5 |  Florida AtlanticFAU | 2-2 | 5-3 | 0.2% | |
| T5 |  UABUAB | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0.1% | |
| T10 |  TulsaTLSA | 1-3 | 4-4 | <0.1% | |
| T10 |  CharlotteCLT | 1-3 | 1-7 | - | |
| T10 |  TempleTEM | 1-3 | 2-6 | - | |
| 13 |  NavyNAVY | 1-4 | 2-6 | - | |
| 14 |  RiceRICE | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 5Thursday, November 5 | |||
| 84.4% (+7.5%) | 52.6% (-24.2%) | ||
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 77.5% (+0.6%) | 76.3% (-0.5%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 78.5% (+1.6%) | 75.6% (-1.3%) | ||
| 74.2% (-2.6%) | 77.6% (+0.8%) | ||
| 73.8% (-3.1%) | 78.1% (+1.2%) | ||
| 80.7% (+3.8%) | 76.6% (-0.2%) | ||
| 76.9% (+0.1%) | 76.8% (-0.0%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
TulsaRiceNavyEast CarolinaUABUTSACCG: 91.1% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UTSACCG: 84.2% • Scenario: 76.3%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-3 | 6-2 | 5-4 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSAUTSA | 100% | - | 95.6% | - | 41.9% | - | 1.2% | 76.9% |
| North TexasUNT | 100% | - | 77.2% | - | 11.3% | - | <0.1% | 67.6% |
| MemphisMEM | - | - | 84.7% | - | 24.6% | - | <0.1% | 44.5% |
| ArmyARMY | - | 8.2% | - | 3.5% | - | <0.1% | - | 4.0% |
| South FloridaUSF | - | - | - | - | 46.7% | - | 0.4% | 4.0% |
| TulaneTULN | - | - | - | - | 47.3% | - | 0.2% | 2.2% |
| East CarolinaECU | - | - | - | - | 2.8% | - | - | 0.4% |
| Florida AtlanticFAU | - | - | - | - | 44.7% | - | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| UABUAB | - | - | - | - | 60.5% | - | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| TulsaTLSA | - | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| CharlotteCLT | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.9% | - |
| NavyNAVY | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| RiceRICE | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TempleTEM | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2026-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-3 | 6-2 | 5-4 | 5-3 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 3-6 | 2-6 | 2-7 | 1-7 | 1-8 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North TexasUNT(4-0) | 27.7% | 0.0% | 48.5% | 0.0% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 2.1% | - | <0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.0 |
| UTSAUTSA(4-0) | 24.4% | 0.0% | 43.6% | 0.0% | 25.4% | 0.0% | 6.0% | - | 0.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.9 |
| MemphisMEM(4-1) | - | 0.0% | 39.5% | 0.0% | 45.1% | 0.0% | 14.4% | - | 1.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| ArmyARMY(4-2) | - | 29.7% | - | 45.4% | 0.0% | 21.8% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| East CarolinaECU(2-2) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 40.5% | 0.0% | 35.4% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 0.8% | - | - | - | - | 4.6 |
| South FloridaUSF(2-2) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 30.6% | 0.0% | 38.4% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 3.4% | - | - | - | - | 4.2 |
| TulaneTULN(2-2) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 23.4% | 0.0% | 40.2% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 5.5% | - | - | - | - | 4.0 |
| TulsaTLSA(1-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 37.6% | 41.8% | 0.0% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | - | - | 3.4 |
| NavyNAVY(1-4) | - | - | - | - | - | 7.3% | - | 32.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% | 0.0% | 1.7% | - | 3.3 |
| UABUAB(2-2) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 29.5% | 52.3% | 0.0% | 13.2% | - | - | - | - | 3.3 |
| Florida AtlanticFAU(2-2) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 20.9% | 42.4% | 0.0% | 31.8% | - | - | - | - | 3.0 |
| TempleTEM(1-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 17.9% | 47.3% | 0.0% | 28.4% | 0.0% | 5.0% | - | - | 2.8 |
| CharlotteCLT(1-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 36.5% | 0.0% | 54.2% | - | - | 1.6 |
| RiceRICE(0-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 42.5% | 0.0% | 39.1% | 0.8 |
Data from 2026-11-02
Who is still alive for the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
As of Latest, UTSA (76.9%), North Texas (67.6%), Memphis (44.5%) and Army (4.0%) currently have the best odds to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely American Athletic Conference Championship Game matchup?
North Texas vs. UTSA is the most likely American Athletic Conference Championship Game matchup at 45.9%, followed by Memphis vs. UTSA (25.5%) and Memphis vs. North Texas (17.7%).
What is the biggest game in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game race this week?
North Texas's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Rice would put its American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 69.5%, while a loss would drop them to 33.9%.
Which American Athletic Conference contender can least afford to lose again?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Memphis's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 84.7%; even one more loss drops that to 24.6%.