SEC Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17
Conference Standings
| 1 |  AlabamaALA | 1-0 | 2-0 | 27.3% | |
| T2 |  TexasTEX | 0-0 | 2-0 | 66.5% | |
| T2 |  GeorgiaUGA | 0-0 | 2-0 | 53.8% | |
| T2 |  LSULSU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 19.6% | |
| T2 |  Texas A&MTA&M | 0-0 | 2-0 | 16.4% | |
| T2 |  TennesseeTENN | 0-0 | 2-0 | 5.4% | |
| T2 |  OklahomaOU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3.6% | |
| T2 |  FloridaFLA | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2.6% | |
| T2 |  Ole MissMISS | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1.7% | |
| T2 |  South CarolinaSC | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1.5% | |
| T2 |  AuburnAUB | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.8% | |
| T2 |  MissouriMIZ | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.4% | |
| T2 |  Mississippi StateMSST | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.3% | |
| T2 |  VanderbiltVAN | 0-0 | 2-0 | <0.1% | |
| T2 |  ArkansasARK | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | |
| T2 |  KentuckyUK | 0-1 | 1-1 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 66.5%
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 66.4% (-0.1%) | 73.4% (+6.8%) | ||
| 66.6% (+0.1%) | 66.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 66.4% (-0.1%) | 66.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 68.5% (+1.9%) | 66.5% (-0.1%) | ||
| 67.7% (+1.2%) | 65.9% (-0.6%) | ||
| 67.3% (+0.8%) | 65.8% (-0.8%) | ||
| 66.4% (-0.1%) | 66.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 65.4% (-1.1%) | 68.6% (+2.1%) | ||
| 66.7% (+0.2%) | 66.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 65.7% (-0.8%) | 66.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 66.7% (+0.2%) | 66.5% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TexasTEX | 100% | 91.6% | 37.9% | 1.7% | 66.5% |
| GeorgiaUGA | 100% | 83.2% | 24.2% | 0.5% | 53.8% |
| AlabamaALA | 100% | 91.7% | 32.6% | 1.0% | 27.3% |
| LSULSU | 100% | 88.9% | 27.6% | 0.4% | 19.6% |
| Texas A&MTA&M | 100% | 90.6% | 30.3% | 0.7% | 16.4% |
| TennesseeTENN | 100% | 89.7% | 26.4% | 0.3% | 5.4% |
| OklahomaOU | 100% | 93.8% | 33.4% | 1.1% | 3.6% |
| FloridaFLA | 100% | 86.9% | 21.0% | 0.5% | 2.6% |
| Ole MissMISS | 100% | 96.0% | 39.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| South CarolinaSC | 100% | 87.8% | 26.2% | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| AuburnAUB | 100% | 87.4% | 26.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| MissouriMIZ | 100% | 87.6% | 24.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Mississippi StateMSST | 100% | 89.7% | 30.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| VanderbiltVAN | - | 72.6% | 18.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| ArkansasARK | - | - | - | - | - |
| KentuckyUK | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2026-09-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TexasTEX(0-0) | 20.8% | 38.2% | 27.9% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6 |
| GeorgiaUGA(0-0) | 16.4% | 36.0% | 30.3% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.5 |
| AlabamaALA(1-0) | 3.3% | 15.5% | 29.1% | 29.0% | 16.4% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.4 |
| LSULSU(0-0) | 2.1% | 11.6% | 25.6% | 30.0% | 20.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.1 |
| Texas A&MTA&M(0-0) | 1.4% | 8.8% | 22.8% | 30.8% | 23.4% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| TennesseeTENN(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.5% | 11.0% | 24.5% | 30.6% | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.1 |
| FloridaFLA(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.1% | 7.0% | 19.4% | 29.0% | 25.5% | 13.2% | 4.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| OklahomaOU(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.1% | 6.7% | 18.5% | 28.7% | 26.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| South CarolinaSC(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 12.6% | 25.5% | 30.0% | 19.9% | 6.8% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 4.3 |
| Ole MissMISS(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 11.1% | 23.3% | 29.0% | 21.5% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 4.1 |
| AuburnAUB(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 9.2% | 22.1% | 30.7% | 24.1% | 9.7% | 1.6% | <0.1% | 4.0 |
| MissouriMIZ(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 17.6% | 29.6% | 28.1% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 3.7 |
| Mississippi StateMSST(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 13.0% | 25.4% | 29.5% | 19.7% | 6.8% | 0.9% | 3.3 |
| VanderbiltVAN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 16.3% | 30.2% | 30.7% | 14.5% | 2.0% | 2.6 |
| KentuckyUK(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 9.7% | 27.9% | 39.9% | 20.3% | 1.3 |
| ArkansasARK(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 11.7% | 37.6% | 48.6% | 0.7 |
Data from 2026-09-17
Who is still alive for the SEC Championship Game?
As of Week 3, Texas (66.5%), Georgia (53.8%), Alabama (27.3%) and LSU (19.6%) currently have the best odds to reach the SEC Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely SEC Championship Game matchup?
Georgia vs. Texas is the most likely SEC Championship Game matchup at 30.4%, followed by Alabama vs. Texas (13.7%) and LSU vs. Texas (8.3%).