Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-11-02

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

1Miami FLMIA6-08-099.9%
2Wake ForestWAKE5-17-182.4%
T3SMUSMU4-26-212.4%
T3LouisvilleLOU4-25-33.4%
T5DukeDUKE3-26-20.7%
T5ClemsonCLEM3-25-30.6%
T5Virginia TechVT3-26-20.4%
8PittsburghPITT3-36-30.1%
T9North CarolinaUNC2-34-4<0.1%
T9Boston CollegeBC2-34-4-
T9NC StateNCSU2-34-4-
T12CaliforniaCAL2-43-6-
T12StanfordSTAN2-44-5-
T12SyracuseSYR2-44-4-
T12VirginiaUVA2-44-5-
T16Florida StFSU1-43-5-
T16Georgia TechGT1-42-6-

Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

182.4%
Miami FLMIA
vs
WAKEWake Forest
212.4%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
33.4%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
40.6%
DukeDUKE
vs
MIAMiami FL
50.6%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
MIAMiami FL
60.4%
Miami FLMIA
vs
VTVirginia Tech
70.1%
Miami FLMIA
vs
PITTPittsburgh
8<0.1%
Virginia TechVT
vs
WAKEWake Forest
9<0.1%
Miami FLMIA
vs
UNCNorth Carolina
10<0.1%
SMUSMU
vs
WAKEWake Forest
11-
DukeDUKE
vs
VTVirginia Tech
12-
DukeDUKE
vs
WAKEWake Forest
13-
LouisvilleLOU
vs
WAKEWake Forest
14-
DukeDUKE
vs
SMUSMU

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 100.0%
Game
Miami FLCCG OddsAway Wins
Miami FLCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6
Virginia TechVT@SMUSMU
99.9%
(-0.1%)		100.0%
(+0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7
ClemsonCLEM@SyracuseSYR
100.0%
(+0.0%)		100.0%
(+0.0%)
Florida StFSU@Boston CollegeBC
100.0%
(+0.0%)		100.0%
(+0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@UConnCONN
100.0%
(+0.0%)		100.0%
(+0.0%)
DukeDUKE@NC StateNCSU
100.0%
(+0.0%)		100.0%
(+0.0%)
MerrimackMRMK@Wake ForestWAKE
100.0%
(+0.0%)		100.0%
(+0.0%)
LouisvilleLOU@Georgia TechGT
100.0%
(+0.0%)		100.0%
(+0.0%)
Miami FLMIA@Notre DameND
100.0%
(+0.0%)		100.0%
(-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Miami FL

SMUSMUNC StateNC State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 20.6%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Miami FL

SMUSMU

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 72.0%

Ways for Miami FL to Clinch Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Spot This Week

SMUSMUNC StateNC State
20.6%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Miami FLMIA100%100%88.1%-21.4%-99.9%
Wake ForestWAKE-100%78.1%-16.1%-82.4%
SMUSMU--52.3%-<0.1%-12.4%
LouisvilleLOU--8.3%---3.4%
DukeDUKE--77.0%-1.3%-0.7%
ClemsonCLEM---3.8%-<0.1%0.6%
Virginia TechVT--25.7%-1.3%-0.4%
PittsburghPITT----1.0%-0.1%
North CarolinaUNC-----<0.1%<0.1%
Boston CollegeBC-------
CaliforniaCAL-------
Florida StFSU-------
Georgia TechGT-------
NC StateNCSU-------
StanfordSTAN-------
SyracuseSYR-------
VirginiaUVA-------

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-7Avg Wins
Miami FLMIA(6-0)90.2%9.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%---------8.9
Wake ForestWAKE(5-1)-48.0%42.1%0.0%9.4%0.0%0.4%-------7.4
LouisvilleLOU(4-2)--41.1%0.0%44.9%0.0%13.1%0.0%0.9%-----6.3
SMUSMU(4-2)--23.8%0.0%54.4%0.0%20.6%0.0%1.2%-----6.0
Virginia TechVT(3-2)--0.5%0.0%18.5%0.0%53.9%0.0%25.7%0.0%1.4%---4.9
ClemsonCLEM(3-2)---15.7%0.0%48.2%0.0%32.2%0.0%3.8%----4.8
PittsburghPITT(3-3)----12.4%0.0%49.3%0.0%34.0%0.0%4.4%---4.7
DukeDUKE(3-2)--0.6%0.0%12.6%0.0%46.7%0.0%33.4%0.0%6.7%---4.7
North CarolinaUNC(2-3)-----18.5%0.0%45.9%0.0%30.5%0.0%5.1%--3.8
VirginiaUVA(2-4)------12.3%0.0%43.0%0.0%39.5%0.0%5.2%-3.6
SyracuseSYR(2-4)------12.2%0.0%38.3%0.0%37.9%0.0%11.6%-3.5
NC StateNCSU(2-3)----0.7%0.0%7.4%0.0%28.2%0.0%43.2%0.0%20.5%-3.2
Florida StFSU(1-4)-------24.8%0.0%50.4%0.0%22.0%0.0%2.8%3.0
CaliforniaCAL(2-4)------1.3%0.0%16.9%0.0%58.1%0.0%23.7%-3.0
Boston CollegeBC(2-3)-----<0.1%0.0%8.4%0.0%42.9%0.0%48.7%--2.6
StanfordSTAN(2-4)------0.1%0.0%4.1%0.0%36.1%0.0%59.7%-2.4
Georgia TechGT(1-4)-------<0.1%0.0%2.4%0.0%23.6%0.0%73.9%1.3

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Who is still alive for the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

As of Latest, Miami (99.9%), Wake Forest (82.4%), SMU (12.4%) and Louisville (3.4%) currently have the best odds to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.

What is the most likely Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game matchup?

Miami vs. Wake Forest is the most likely Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game matchup at 82.4%, followed by Miami vs. SMU (12.4%) and Louisville vs. Miami (3.4%).

What is the biggest game in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race this week?

SMU's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Virginia Tech would put its Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds at 17.3%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.

Which team can clinch a Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game spot as soon as this week?

Miami can clinch a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game as soon as this week if SMU and NC State both win.

Which Atlantic Coast Conference contender can least afford to lose again?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Duke's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds at 77.0%; even one more loss drops that to 1.6%.