Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Q: Who is still alive for the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

As of Week 3, Miami (92.0%), SMU (43.4%), Louisville (21.3%) and Virginia (21.0%) currently have the best odds to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17

Conference Standings


T1	MiamiMIA	1-0	2-0	92.0%
T1	SMUSMU	1-0	2-0	43.4%
T1	VirginiaUVA	1-0	2-0	21.0%
T1	CaliforniaCAL	1-0	1-1	0.1%
T5	LouisvilleLOU	0-0	1-1	21.3%
T5	PittsburghPITT	0-0	2-0	10.0%
T5	Virginia TechVT	0-0	2-0	7.9%
T5	DukeDUKE	0-0	2-0	2.1%
T5	Wake ForestWAKE	0-0	2-0	0.6%
T5	ClemsonCLEM	0-0	1-1	0.5%
T5	North CarolinaUNC	0-0	2-0	0.3%
T5	NC StateNCSU	0-1	1-1	0.3%
T5	Georgia TechGT	0-0	0-2	0.2%
T5	Florida StateFSU	0-1	1-1	0.1%
T5	SyracuseSYR	0-1	1-1	<0.1%
T5	Boston CollegeBC	0-0	1-1	-
T5	StanfordSTAN	0-1	1-1	-

Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Matchups

138.1%

217.9%

317.5%

48.2%

56.7%

61.8%

71.8%

81.8%

90.9%

100.9%

110.5%

120.5%

130.4%

140.4%

150.4%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 92.0%

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Thu, Sep 17Thursday, September 17
	SyracuseSYR@PittsburghPITT	92.3% (+0.3%)	92.0% (-0.1%)
Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18
	MiamiMIA@Wake ForestWAKE	93.4% (+1.4%)	67.5% (-24.5%)
Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19
	MercerMER@Georgia TechGT	92.0% (-0.0%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	North CarolinaUNC@ClemsonCLEM	91.9% (-0.1%)	92.1% (+0.1%)
	NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN	92.0% (-0.0%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	MaineME@Boston CollegeBC	92.1% (+0.1%)	92.0% (-0.0%)
	Florida StateFSU@AlabamaALA	91.9% (-0.1%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU	91.7% (-0.3%)	92.3% (+0.3%)
	WagnerWAG@CaliforniaCAL	92.1% (+0.1%)	92.0% (-0.0%)
	StanfordSTAN@DukeDUKE	91.9% (-0.1%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD	92.0% (+0.0%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA	91.9% (-0.1%)	92.0% (+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	9-0	8-1	8-0	7-2	7-1	6-2	6-3	5-3	Overall
MiamiMIA	99.9%	88.3%	-	35.6%	-	-	1.4%	-	92.0%
SMUSMU	99.9%	78.9%	-	21.2%	-	-	0.5%	-	43.4%
LouisvilleLOU	98.9%	73.6%	-	17.7%	-	-	0.3%	-	21.3%
VirginiaUVA	99.7%	73.0%	-	17.6%	-	-	0.5%	-	21.0%
PittsburghPITT	100%	82.0%	-	19.4%	-	-	0.6%	-	10.0%
Virginia TechVT	100%	95.4%	-	30.6%	-	-	0.8%	-	7.9%
DukeDUKE	100%	72.1%	-	12.9%	-	-	0.2%	-	2.1%
Wake ForestWAKE	100%	98.2%	-	38.0%	-	-	1.6%	-	0.6%
ClemsonCLEM	-	-	100%	-	36.5%	1.7%	-	-	0.5%
North CarolinaUNC	-	-	100%	-	50.9%	2.9%	-	-	0.3%
NC StateNCSU	-	57.3%	-	9.3%	-	-	0.1%	-	0.3%
Georgia TechGT	-	-	98.5%	-	38.8%	2.1%	-	-	0.2%
Florida StateFSU	-	-	-	-	61.6%	4.2%	-	<0.1%	0.1%
CaliforniaCAL	100%	77.3%	-	17.7%	-	-	0.4%	-	0.1%
SyracuseSYR	-	95.0%	-	40.8%	-	-	1.1%	-	<0.1%
Boston CollegeBC	-	-	-	-	-	5.1%	-	-	-
StanfordSTAN	-	-	-	33.3%	-	-	1.5%	-	-

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Final Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team	9-0	8-1	8-0	7-1	7-2	6-2	6-3	5-3	5-4	4-4	4-5	3-5	3-6	2-6	2-7	1-7	1-8	0-8	0-9	Avg Wins
MiamiMIA(1-0)	63.7%	29.7%	0.0%	0.0%	5.9%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-	-	8.6
SMUSMU(1-0)	11.3%	31.6%	0.0%	0.0%	33.5%	0.0%	17.6%	0.0%	5.1%	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-	-	7.2
VirginiaUVA(1-0)	3.5%	16.4%	0.0%	0.0%	30.4%	0.0%	28.8%	0.0%	15.4%	0.0%	4.7%	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-	-	6.5
LouisvilleLOU(0-0)	4.1%	16.5%	0.0%	0.0%	28.4%	0.0%	27.2%	0.0%	16.1%	0.0%	6.0%	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	6.4
PittsburghPITT(0-0)	0.4%	6.4%	0.0%	0.0%	21.8%	0.0%	32.3%	0.0%	24.9%	0.0%	10.9%	0.0%	2.9%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.8
Virginia TechVT(0-0)	0.2%	3.2%	0.0%	0.0%	14.6%	0.0%	28.8%	0.0%	29.8%	0.0%	17.1%	0.0%	5.4%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.4
DukeDUKE(0-0)	<0.1%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	8.3%	0.0%	21.8%	0.0%	30.1%	0.0%	24.1%	0.0%	11.1%	0.0%	2.9%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	<0.1%	4.9
NC StateNCSU(0-1)	-	0.1%	-	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	7.9%	0.0%	19.9%	0.0%	29.0%	0.0%	25.1%	0.0%	12.6%	0.0%	3.4%	0.0%	0.4%	3.8
ClemsonCLEM(0-0)	-	0.0%	<0.1%	1.1%	0.0%	6.4%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	28.8%	0.0%	26.6%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%	0.5%	-	3.6
Wake ForestWAKE(0-0)	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%	6.0%	0.0%	17.3%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	27.5%	0.0%	15.0%	0.0%	4.0%	0.0%	0.4%	3.6
CaliforniaCAL(1-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	2.8%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%	26.4%	0.0%	33.4%	0.0%	20.8%	0.0%	4.6%	-	-	3.3
North CarolinaUNC(0-0)	-	0.0%	<0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	3.2%	0.0%	12.3%	0.0%	26.0%	0.0%	30.8%	0.0%	20.1%	0.0%	6.5%	0.0%	0.8%	-	3.3
Florida StateFSU(0-1)	-	-	-	<0.1%	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	10.7%	0.0%	27.8%	0.0%	33.8%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	5.4%	0.0%	0.6%	-	3.2
Georgia TechGT(0-0)	-	0.0%	<0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	2.9%	0.0%	11.3%	0.0%	24.8%	0.0%	30.9%	0.0%	21.3%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	1.0%	-	3.2
SyracuseSYR(0-1)	-	0.0%	-	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	3.8%	0.0%	13.1%	0.0%	26.6%	0.0%	31.5%	0.0%	19.5%	0.0%	4.9%	2.4
StanfordSTAN(0-1)	-	0.0%	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	3.3%	0.0%	13.3%	0.0%	30.4%	0.0%	35.7%	0.0%	16.9%	1.5
Boston CollegeBC(0-0)	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	2.4%	0.0%	10.9%	0.0%	28.4%	0.0%	38.1%	0.0%	19.9%	-	1.4

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Who is still alive for the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

As of Week 3, Miami (92.0%), SMU (43.4%), Louisville (21.3%) and Virginia (21.0%) currently have the best odds to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.

What is the most likely Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game matchup?

Miami vs. SMU is the most likely Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game matchup at 38.1%, followed by Louisville vs. Miami (17.9%) and Miami vs. Virginia (17.5%).