Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-08-26
Conference Standings
| T1 |  MiamiMIA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 76.2% | |
| T1 |  SMUSMU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 28.6% | |
| T1 |  ClemsonCLEM | 0-0 | 0-0 | 21.2% | |
| T1 |  LouisvilleLOU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 20.2% | |
| T1 |  VirginiaUVA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12.5% | |
| T1 |  Virginia TechVT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7.6% | |
| T1 |  PittsburghPITT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6.8% | |
| T1 |  Florida StateFSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6.4% | |
| T1 |  NC StateNCSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5.7% | |
| T1 |  Georgia TechGT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4.0% | |
| T1 |  DukeDUKE | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.8% | |
| T1 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.6% | |
| T1 |  North CarolinaUNC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.3% | |
| T1 |  CaliforniaCAL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.8% | |
| T1 |  SyracuseSYR | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.8% | |
| T1 |  Boston CollegeBC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.2% | |
| T1 |  StanfordSTAN | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.2% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 76.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 76.5% (+0.3%) | 76.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 75.8% (-0.5%) | 76.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.2% (+0.0%) | 76.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.1% (-0.1%) | 76.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-0 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiamiMIA | 100% | - | 98.8% | - | 73.5% | - | 9.5% | - | - | 76.2% |
| SMUSMU | 99.9% | - | 96.0% | - | 57.1% | - | 4.7% | - | - | 28.6% |
| ClemsonCLEM | - | 99.9% | - | 85.7% | - | 24.4% | - | 0.2% | - | 21.2% |
| LouisvilleLOU | 100% | - | 95.7% | - | 58.5% | - | 5.1% | - | - | 20.2% |
| VirginiaUVA | 99.8% | - | 94.1% | - | 53.5% | - | 4.7% | - | - | 12.5% |
| Virginia TechVT | 100% | - | 98.8% | - | 66.1% | - | 7.8% | - | <0.1% | 7.6% |
| PittsburghPITT | 100% | - | 96.7% | - | 58.1% | - | 5.6% | - | - | 6.8% |
| Florida StateFSU | - | 100% | - | 94.0% | - | 29.3% | - | 0.2% | - | 6.4% |
| NC StateNCSU | 99.4% | - | 92.7% | - | 50.9% | - | 3.9% | - | - | 5.7% |
| Georgia TechGT | - | 100% | - | 82.8% | - | 19.5% | - | <0.1% | - | 4.0% |
| DukeDUKE | 100% | - | 96.4% | - | 59.0% | - | 4.7% | - | - | 2.8% |
| Wake ForestWAKE | 100% | - | 99.2% | - | 65.7% | - | 7.8% | - | - | 2.6% |
| North CarolinaUNC | - | 100% | - | 91.7% | - | 27.8% | - | 0.2% | - | 2.3% |
| CaliforniaCAL | 100% | - | 95.8% | - | 60.1% | - | 5.1% | - | - | 1.8% |
| SyracuseSYR | 100% | - | 97.3% | - | 66.2% | - | 7.9% | - | - | 0.8% |
| Boston CollegeBC | - | 100% | - | 100% | - | 27.7% | - | 0.1% | - | 0.2% |
| StanfordSTAN | 100% | - | 100% | - | 68.9% | - | 8.8% | - | <0.1% | 0.2% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-0 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 4-5 | 3-5 | 3-6 | 2-6 | 2-7 | 1-7 | 1-8 | 0-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiamiMIA(0-0) | 18.6% | 0.0% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 28.8% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.5 |
| SMUSMU(0-0) | 2.4% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 28.2% | 0.0% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 |
| LouisvilleLOU(0-0) | 1.3% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 26.6% | 0.0% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 5.6 |
| ClemsonCLEM(0-0) | - | 2.8% | 0.0% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 28.7% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | 5.2 |
| VirginiaUVA(0-0) | 0.5% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 26.8% | 0.0% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 5.2 |
| Virginia TechVT(0-0) | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 25.4% | 0.0% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| PittsburghPITT(0-0) | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 17.8% | 0.0% | 26.6% | 0.0% | 24.8% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.6 |
| NC StateNCSU(0-0) | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 16.6% | 0.0% | 25.3% | 0.0% | 25.3% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.5 |
| Florida StateFSU(0-0) | - | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 11.4% | 0.0% | 23.7% | 0.0% | 29.1% | 0.0% | 21.0% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | - | 4.1 |
| DukeDUKE(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 22.3% | 0.0% | 27.9% | 0.0% | 22.0% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 4.0 |
| Georgia TechGT(0-0) | - | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 23.2% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | - | 3.9 |
| Wake ForestWAKE(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 24.2% | 0.0% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 3.8 |
| CaliforniaCAL(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 25.4% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.6 |
| North CarolinaUNC(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 28.0% | 0.0% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | - | 3.4 |
| SyracuseSYR(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 21.2% | 0.0% | 27.9% | 0.0% | 23.0% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 3.0 |
| StanfordSTAN(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 25.8% | 0.0% | 29.5% | 0.0% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 2.4 |
| Boston CollegeBC(0-0) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 25.5% | 0.0% | 31.4% | 0.0% | 20.9% | 0.0% | 5.9% | - | 2.3 |
Data from 2026-08-26