Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-11-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 4-0 | 7-1 | 99.8% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 4-0 | 6-2 | 90.5% | |
| T3 |  DelawareDEL | 2-2 | 4-4 | 8.0% | |
| T3 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 2-2 | 3-5 | 0.7% | |
| T3 |  Missouri StateMOST | 2-2 | 3-5 | 0.5% | |
| T3 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 2-2 | 3-5 | 0.2% | |
| T3 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0.2% | |
| T8 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 1-3 | 2-6 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 1-3 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| 10 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 99.8% (-0.0%) | 99.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 99.9% (+0.0%) | 99.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 99.8% (-0.0%) | 99.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 99.9% (+0.1%) | 99.8% (-0.0%) | ||
| 100.0% (+0.1%) | 98.3% (-1.5%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateLibertyFlorida InternationalSam HoustonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 3.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 99.9% • Scenario: 93.5%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 100% | 89.0% | 24.0% | - | 99.8% |
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 100% | 80.5% | 26.3% | 1.0% | 90.5% |
| DelawareDEL | - | - | 52.5% | 5.5% | <0.1% | 8.0% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | - | - | 60.0% | 4.2% | <0.1% | 0.7% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | - | 65.8% | 4.4% | <0.1% | 0.5% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | 15.3% | 1.5% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | 22.2% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | - | - | - | 0.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | - | 1.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
Data from 2026-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB(4-0) | 81.9% | 16.9% | 1.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | - | - | 7.8 |
| Jacksonville StateJXST(4-0) | 23.4% | 44.5% | 26.2% | 5.5% | 0.4% | - | - | - | - | 6.9 |
| DelawareDEL(2-2) | - | - | 11.7% | 34.0% | 35.8% | 16.0% | 2.6% | - | - | 4.4 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(2-2) | - | - | 0.2% | 12.5% | 37.2% | 37.5% | 12.7% | - | - | 3.5 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(2-2) | - | - | 0.4% | 10.6% | 35.7% | 39.3% | 14.0% | - | - | 3.4 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(2-2) | - | - | 0.5% | 8.3% | 30.8% | 41.5% | 18.9% | - | - | 3.3 |
| Missouri StateMOST(2-2) | - | - | 0.3% | 6.0% | 29.5% | 45.5% | 18.6% | - | - | 3.2 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(1-3) | - | - | - | 9.2% | 30.7% | 37.2% | 19.3% | 3.6% | - | 3.2 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(1-3) | - | - | - | 5.4% | 26.6% | 41.5% | 22.8% | 3.8% | - | 3.1 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.4% | 6.5% | 27.9% | 43.7% | 21.5% | 1.2 |
Data from 2026-11-02
Who is still alive for the Conference USA Championship Game?
As of Latest, Liberty (99.8%), Jacksonville State (90.5%) and Delaware (8.0%) currently have the best odds to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Conference USA Championship Game matchup?
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty is the most likely Conference USA Championship Game matchup at 90.3%, followed by Delaware vs. Liberty (8.0%) and Liberty vs. Western Kentucky (0.6%).
What is the biggest game in the Conference USA Championship Game race this week?
Jacksonville State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Sam Houston would put its Conference USA Championship Game odds at 92.4%, while a loss would drop them to 74.0%.