Conference USA Championship Probabilities

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	Overall
Western KentuckyWKU	100%	99.8%	86.0%	23.1%	0.1%	45.4%
DelawareDEL	100%	99.9%	85.3%	21.9%	<0.1%	32.5%
LibertyLIB	100%	99.7%	83.0%	19.4%	0.1%	30.2%
Jacksonville StateJXST	100%	99.6%	81.5%	18.3%	<0.1%	26.4%
Kennesaw StateKENN	100%	99.8%	85.2%	21.6%	<0.1%	22.8%
Missouri StateMOST	100%	99.8%	84.0%	20.8%	0.1%	16.7%
Florida InternationalFIU	100%	99.3%	80.0%	17.9%	<0.1%	12.3%
New Mexico StateNMSU	100%	100%	85.2%	22.6%	<0.1%	5.9%
Middle TennesseeMTSU	100%	99.8%	85.7%	22.0%	0.1%	5.0%
Sam HoustonSHSU	100%	99.4%	84.3%	22.3%	0.1%	2.7%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	2-6	1-7	0-8	Avg Wins
Western KentuckyWKU(0-0)	2.9%	13.5%	26.1%	28.4%	18.6%	8.0%	2.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	5.2
DelawareDEL(0-0)	1.3%	8.0%	20.0%	28.5%	24.2%	13.0%	4.3%	0.8%	<0.1%	4.7
LibertyLIB(0-0)	1.2%	7.3%	19.4%	28.4%	24.9%	13.4%	4.5%	0.8%	<0.1%	4.7
Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0)	0.8%	6.0%	17.7%	27.8%	26.3%	15.2%	5.1%	1.0%	<0.1%	4.6
Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0)	0.6%	4.5%	14.3%	25.3%	27.4%	18.3%	7.6%	1.8%	0.2%	4.3
Missouri StateMOST(0-0)	0.3%	2.8%	10.5%	22.6%	28.5%	22.1%	10.2%	2.6%	0.3%	4.0
Florida InternationalFIU(0-0)	0.2%	1.9%	8.4%	19.9%	28.6%	24.7%	12.5%	3.5%	0.4%	3.8
New Mexico StateNMSU(0-0)	<0.1%	0.5%	3.3%	10.9%	22.1%	28.5%	22.6%	10.1%	1.9%	3.1
Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0)	<0.1%	0.4%	2.8%	9.6%	21.2%	28.8%	23.9%	11.1%	2.1%	3.0
Sam HoustonSHSU(0-0)	<0.1%	0.2%	1.3%	6.1%	16.6%	27.9%	28.4%	15.9%	3.6%	2.6

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com