Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17
Conference Standings
| T1 |  DelawareDEL | 0-0 | 1-1 | 67.5% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 0-0 | 1-2 | 28.2% | |
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 0-0 | 1-1 | 27.0% | |
| T1 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 22.5% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 1-1 | 18.4% | |
| T1 |  Missouri StateMOST | 0-0 | 1-1 | 11.0% | |
| T1 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7.0% | |
| T1 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5.9% | |
| T1 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3.4% | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 67.6% (+0.1%) | 67.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 67.5% (+0.0%) | 67.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 66.8% (-0.7%) | 67.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 67.5% (-0.0%) | 67.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 67.4% (-0.1%) | 67.5% (+0.1%) | ||
| 67.6% (+0.1%) | 67.4% (-0.1%) | ||
| 67.5% (-0.0%) | 67.6% (+0.1%) | ||
| 67.6% (+0.1%) | 67.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 68.3% (+0.8%) | 67.5% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DelawareDEL | 100% | 99.9% | 88.5% | 26.6% | 0.1% | 67.5% |
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.4% | 80.4% | 19.5% | 0.1% | 28.2% |
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 99.4% | 80.0% | 19.2% | 0.1% | 27.0% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 99.7% | 81.2% | 19.4% | 0.1% | 22.5% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 99.8% | 84.5% | 22.1% | 0.1% | 18.4% |
| Missouri StateMOST | 100% | 99.8% | 83.0% | 20.9% | 0.1% | 11.0% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | 100% | 99.6% | 83.5% | 21.3% | 0.1% | 9.2% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 99.7% | 82.7% | 20.7% | 0.1% | 7.0% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 99.2% | 77.8% | 17.5% | 0.1% | 5.9% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | 100% | 99.7% | 84.7% | 22.1% | 0.1% | 3.4% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DelawareDEL(0-0) | 8.8% | 25.2% | 31.3% | 22.0% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0) | 0.9% | 6.5% | 18.9% | 28.7% | 25.8% | 14.0% | 4.4% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| LibertyLIB(0-0) | 0.8% | 6.1% | 18.2% | 28.7% | 26.2% | 14.4% | 4.7% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.4% | 15.1% | 27.3% | 28.3% | 17.2% | 6.1% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 4.4 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | 0.4% | 3.3% | 11.4% | 22.7% | 27.7% | 21.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 4.1 |
| Missouri StateMOST(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.4% | 6.9% | 18.1% | 28.0% | 26.2% | 14.5% | 4.4% | 0.6% | 3.7 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.1% | 5.6% | 15.5% | 26.0% | 27.2% | 17.3% | 6.2% | 0.9% | 3.5 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.2% | 12.9% | 24.1% | 28.1% | 20.3% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 3.2 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 12.6% | 24.5% | 28.9% | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 3.2 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 18.6% | 28.9% | 26.8% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 2.8 |
Data from 2026-09-17
Who is still alive for the Conference USA Championship Game?
As of Week 3, Delaware (67.5%), Jacksonville State (28.2%) and Liberty (27.0%) currently have the best odds to reach the Conference USA Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Conference USA Championship Game matchup?
Delaware vs. Jacksonville State is the most likely Conference USA Championship Game matchup at 14.8%, followed by Delaware vs. Liberty (14.1%) and Delaware vs. Florida International (11.6%).