Big Ten Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Ohio StateOSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 79.5% | |
| T1 |  IndianaIU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 54.8% | |
| T1 |  Penn StatePSU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 26.6% | |
| T1 |  USCUSC | 0-0 | 3-0 | 13.3% | |
| T1 |  OregonORE | 0-0 | 1-1 | 11.8% | |
| T1 |  MichiganMICH | 0-0 | 2-0 | 5.5% | |
| T1 |  NebraskaNEB | 0-0 | 2-0 | 5.1% | |
| T1 |  IowaIOWA | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1.8% | |
| T1 |  UCLAUCLA | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.9% | |
| T1 |  Michigan StateMSU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.2% | |
| T1 |  MarylandMD | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.1% | |
| T1 |  WisconsinWIS | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.1% | |
| T1 |  IllinoisILL | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
| T1 |  WashingtonWASH | 0-0 | 2-0 | <0.1% | |
| T1 |  NorthwesternNU | 0-0 | 1-0 | <0.1% | |
| T1 |  MinnesotaMINN | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | |
| T1 |  PurduePUR | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | |
| T1 |  RutgersRUTG | 0-0 | 0-2 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 79.4% (-0.1%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 79.8% (+0.3%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.7% (+0.2%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 80.0% (+0.5%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 80.1% (+0.6%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.5% (-0.0%) | 80.3% (+0.8%) | ||
| 79.8% (+0.4%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 80.0% (+0.5%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.4% (-0.1%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 79.6% (+0.1%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.4% (-0.1%) | 79.5% (+0.1%) | ||
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 79.5% (+0.0%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.7% (+0.2%) | 79.4% (-0.1%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU | 100% | 94.0% | 39.0% | 1.0% | 79.5% |
| IndianaIU | 100% | 83.7% | 16.4% | <0.1% | 54.8% |
| Penn StatePSU | 99.8% | 52.8% | 3.9% | <0.1% | 26.6% |
| USCUSC | 100% | 97.7% | 22.9% | 0.2% | 13.3% |
| OregonORE | 100% | 81.3% | 13.6% | 0.2% | 11.8% |
| MichiganMICH | 100% | 96.1% | 23.1% | 0.1% | 5.5% |
| NebraskaNEB | 100% | 86.2% | 13.2% | <0.1% | 5.1% |
| IowaIOWA | 99.5% | 63.2% | 5.6% | <0.1% | 1.8% |
| UCLAUCLA | 99.8% | 56.6% | 4.9% | <0.1% | 0.9% |
| Michigan StateMSU | 97.7% | 51.5% | 4.7% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| MarylandMD | 100% | 81.7% | 10.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| WisconsinWIS | 100% | 51.4% | 4.2% | - | 0.1% |
| IllinoisILL | 100% | 71.1% | 8.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| WashingtonWASH | 100% | 81.5% | 23.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| NorthwesternNU | - | 80.0% | 14.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| MinnesotaMINN | - | 71.4% | 4.9% | <0.1% | - |
| PurduePUR | - | 69.6% | 3.5% | - | - |
| RutgersRUTG | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2026-09-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU(0-0) | 30.7% | 43.2% | 20.8% | 4.7% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 |
| IndianaIU(0-0) | 16.2% | 40.1% | 31.1% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6 |
| Penn StatePSU(0-0) | 9.6% | 29.6% | 34.4% | 19.5% | 5.9% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.1 |
| OregonORE(0-0) | 0.7% | 9.1% | 27.1% | 33.0% | 20.9% | 7.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.1 |
| USCUSC(0-0) | 0.7% | 7.2% | 24.1% | 34.5% | 23.5% | 8.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.0 |
| NebraskaNEB(0-0) | 0.3% | 3.3% | 15.0% | 30.2% | 30.0% | 15.8% | 4.5% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.4 |
| MichiganMICH(0-0) | 0.1% | 2.4% | 13.2% | 30.2% | 32.0% | 16.8% | 4.7% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.4 |
| IowaIOWA(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.8% | 9.9% | 23.5% | 30.1% | 22.2% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| UCLAUCLA(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.9% | 5.9% | 18.0% | 29.1% | 26.6% | 14.2% | 4.4% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| MarylandMD(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.0% | 6.9% | 21.4% | 32.3% | 25.6% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 3.9 |
| Michigan StateMSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 7.2% | 18.3% | 28.1% | 26.1% | 14.1% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 3.7 |
| WisconsinWIS(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 5.8% | 17.4% | 29.5% | 28.0% | 14.2% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 3.6 |
| IllinoisILL(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 12.6% | 24.7% | 29.1% | 20.3% | 7.5% | 1.1% | 3.3 |
| WashingtonWASH(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 9.7% | 23.8% | 32.2% | 23.0% | 7.9% | 1.0% | 3.1 |
| NorthwesternNU(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.1% | 7.0% | 21.5% | 33.4% | 26.5% | 9.4% | 1.0% | 2.9 |
| PurduePUR(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.7% | 15.2% | 28.7% | 30.3% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 2.5 |
| MinnesotaMINN(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 9.3% | 22.7% | 32.4% | 25.0% | 8.0% | 2.1 |
| RutgersRUTG(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 15.1% | 39.9% | 41.7% | 0.8 |
Data from 2026-09-17
Who is still alive for the Big Ten Championship Game?
As of Week 3, Ohio State (79.5%), Indiana (54.8%), Penn State (26.6%) and USC (13.3%) currently have the best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Big Ten Championship Game matchup?
Indiana vs. Ohio State is the most likely Big Ten Championship Game matchup at 38.1%, followed by Ohio State vs. Penn State (15.9%) and Ohio State vs. USC (8.6%).