Big Ten Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-08-26
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Ohio StateOSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 61.1% | |
| T1 |  OregonORE | 0-0 | 0-0 | 49.8% | |
| T1 |  IndianaIU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 40.1% | |
| T1 |  Penn StatePSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 14.7% | |
| T1 |  USCUSC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12.2% | |
| T1 |  MichiganMICH | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10.4% | |
| T1 |  IowaIOWA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4.1% | |
| T1 |  WashingtonWASH | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.3% | |
| T1 |  WisconsinWIS | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.8% | |
| T1 |  NebraskaNEB | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.3% | |
| T1 |  IllinoisILL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.1% | |
| T1 |  UCLAUCLA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.2% | |
| T1 |  MarylandMD | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.2% | |
| T1 |  Michigan StateMSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.2% | |
| T1 |  MinnesotaMINN | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.1% | |
| T1 |  RutgersRUTG | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.1% | |
| T1 |  PurduePUR | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.1% | |
| T1 |  NorthwesternNU | 0-0 | 0-0 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 61.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 62.5% (+1.4%) | 61.1% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU | 100% | 98.2% | 52.9% | 4.0% | 61.1% |
| OregonORE | 99.9% | 93.3% | 38.3% | 1.9% | 49.8% |
| IndianaIU | 99.9% | 88.2% | 32.4% | 1.0% | 40.1% |
| Penn StatePSU | 99.5% | 72.7% | 15.3% | 0.2% | 14.7% |
| USCUSC | 100% | 97.9% | 47.0% | 2.1% | 12.2% |
| MichiganMICH | 100% | 97.8% | 42.1% | 1.5% | 10.4% |
| IowaIOWA | 99.0% | 81.2% | 20.7% | 0.4% | 4.1% |
| WashingtonWASH | 100% | 92.0% | 35.6% | 1.0% | 2.3% |
| WisconsinWIS | 100% | 71.5% | 13.1% | <0.1% | 1.8% |
| NebraskaNEB | 100% | 96.2% | 37.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| IllinoisILL | 100% | 82.3% | 17.8% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| UCLAUCLA | 100% | 80.8% | 18.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| MarylandMD | 100% | 90.6% | 21.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Michigan StateMSU | 100% | 75.8% | 19.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| MinnesotaMINN | - | 79.5% | 22.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| RutgersRUTG | - | 88.9% | 27.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| PurduePUR | - | 78.6% | 19.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| NorthwesternNU | - | 100% | 36.0% | 1.7% | <0.1% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU(0-0) | 12.3% | 31.6% | 32.2% | 17.4% | 5.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.2 |
| OregonORE(0-0) | 8.7% | 29.5% | 34.4% | 19.8% | 6.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.1 |
| IndianaIU(0-0) | 7.1% | 24.9% | 33.4% | 23.1% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.9 |
| Penn StatePSU(0-0) | 2.2% | 11.8% | 25.2% | 29.4% | 20.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.1 |
| USCUSC(0-0) | 0.4% | 4.3% | 14.9% | 27.5% | 28.1% | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 5.4 |
| MichiganMICH(0-0) | 0.3% | 3.6% | 14.5% | 28.4% | 29.2% | 17.0% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 5.4 |
| IowaIOWA(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.2% | 9.7% | 21.4% | 28.1% | 22.9% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| WisconsinWIS(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.3% | 6.1% | 16.0% | 26.0% | 26.0% | 16.5% | 6.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 4.5 |
| WashingtonWASH(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 13.5% | 25.1% | 28.1% | 19.1% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| IllinoisILL(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.7% | 12.9% | 24.3% | 28.2% | 19.7% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 4.2 |
| NebraskaNEB(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 10.3% | 21.9% | 29.0% | 22.7% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 4.0 |
| UCLAUCLA(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 13.3% | 25.0% | 28.6% | 19.4% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 3.3 |
| MarylandMD(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 12.7% | 24.9% | 28.8% | 20.0% | 7.7% | 1.2% | 3.3 |
| Michigan StateMSU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 3.5% | 11.3% | 22.3% | 28.3% | 22.3% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 3.1 |
| MinnesotaMINN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 9.3% | 21.2% | 29.2% | 24.2% | 10.9% | 2.1% | 3.0 |
| PurduePUR(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 8.5% | 20.1% | 29.1% | 25.2% | 11.9% | 2.5% | 2.9 |
| NorthwesternNU(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 7.0% | 19.0% | 29.9% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 2.8 |
| RutgersRUTG(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 7.2% | 18.0% | 28.2% | 26.9% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 2.7 |
Data from 2026-08-26
Who is still alive for the Big Ten Championship Game?
As of Week 1, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland and 13 others remain mathematically alive. Northwestern has been eliminated from contention.