Big Ten Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-11-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  UCLAUCLA | 5-0 | 8-0 | 49.3% | |
| 2 |  IndianaIU | 5-1 | 8-1 | 68.9% | |
| 3 |  Ohio StateOSU | 4-1 | 6-2 | 61.9% | |
| 4 |  USCUSC | 4-2 | 7-2 | 8.4% | |
| T5 |  OregonORE | 3-2 | 5-3 | 5.0% | |
| T5 |  WisconsinWIS | 3-2 | 5-3 | 4.2% | |
| T5 |  IowaIOWA | 3-2 | 6-2 | 1.4% | |
| T5 |  NorthwesternNU | 3-2 | 6-2 | 0.8% | |
| T5 |  MinnesotaMINN | 3-2 | 5-3 | 0.1% | |
| T5 |  IllinoisILL | 3-2 | 5-3 | <0.1% | |
| T11 |  MichiganMICH | 2-3 | 5-3 | - | |
| T11 |  NebraskaNEB | 2-3 | 5-3 | - | |
| T11 |  PurduePUR | 2-3 | 3-5 | - | |
| T11 |  WashingtonWASH | 2-3 | 5-3 | - | |
| T15 |  Penn StatePSU | 1-4 | 4-4 | - | |
| T15 |  RutgersRUTG | 1-4 | 2-6 | - | |
| T17 |  MarylandMD | 0-5 | 2-6 | - | |
| T17 |  Michigan StateMSU | 0-5 | 2-6 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 69.0% (+0.1%) | 68.7% (-0.3%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 65.1% (-3.8%) | 78.8% (+9.9%) | ||
| 68.7% (-0.2%) | 69.0% (+0.1%) | ||
| 73.8% (+4.9%) | 67.9% (-1.0%) | ||
| 68.8% (-0.1%) | 69.0% (+0.1%) | ||
| 69.5% (+0.6%) | 68.8% (-0.1%) | ||
| 68.3% (-0.6%) | 69.4% (+0.5%) | ||
| 68.6% (-0.3%) | 69.0% (+0.1%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
WashingtonMichiganRutgersPurdueNorthwesternMinnesotaNebraskaOhio StateCCG: 82.1% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MinnesotaCCG: 78.8% • Scenario: 27.9%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IndianaIU | - | 93.1% | 28.4% | 0.4% | 68.9% |
| Ohio StateOSU | - | 86.9% | 40.2% | 3.3% | 61.9% |
| UCLAUCLA | 100% | 84.4% | 16.1% | <0.1% | 49.3% |
| USCUSC | - | - | 79.6% | <0.1% | 8.4% |
| OregonORE | - | - | 49.5% | 0.1% | 5.0% |
| WisconsinWIS | - | - | 12.3% | - | 4.2% |
| IowaIOWA | - | - | 9.6% | <0.1% | 1.4% |
| NorthwesternNU | - | - | 23.1% | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| MinnesotaMINN | - | - | 27.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| IllinoisILL | - | - | 10.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| MarylandMD | - | - | - | - | - |
| MichiganMICH | - | - | - | 0.5% | - |
| Michigan StateMSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| NebraskaNEB | - | - | - | - | - |
| Penn StatePSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| PurduePUR | - | - | - | 0.3% | - |
| RutgersRUTG | - | - | - | - | - |
| WashingtonWASH | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
Data from 2026-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IndianaIU(5-1) | - | 64.4% | 31.3% | 4.2% | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.6 |
| UCLAUCLA(5-0) | 12.8% | 36.4% | 35.6% | 13.5% | 1.8% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.4 |
| Ohio StateOSU(4-1) | - | 53.9% | 36.7% | 8.6% | 0.8% | <0.1% | - | - | - | - | 7.4 |
| WisconsinWIS(3-2) | - | - | 33.9% | 43.8% | 18.9% | 3.2% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| OregonORE(3-2) | - | - | 10.0% | 54.6% | 29.6% | 5.4% | 0.3% | - | - | - | 5.7 |
| USCUSC(4-2) | - | - | 10.5% | 49.0% | 39.2% | 1.3% | - | - | - | - | 5.7 |
| IowaIOWA(3-2) | - | - | 14.2% | 39.0% | 34.6% | 11.2% | 1.0% | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| NorthwesternNU(3-2) | - | - | 3.5% | 35.9% | 42.7% | 16.0% | 1.8% | - | - | - | 5.2 |
| NebraskaNEB(2-3) | - | - | - | 6.4% | 33.4% | 43.6% | 15.6% | 1.1% | - | - | 4.3 |
| Penn StatePSU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 40.7% | 44.8% | 13.1% | 1.4% | <0.1% | - | 4.2 |
| IllinoisILL(3-2) | - | - | 0.4% | 5.2% | 22.6% | 42.4% | 29.3% | - | - | - | 4.1 |
| MinnesotaMINN(3-2) | - | - | 0.3% | 3.7% | 19.0% | 42.4% | 34.7% | - | - | - | 3.9 |
| MichiganMICH(2-3) | - | - | - | 0.7% | 12.5% | 45.5% | 36.4% | 5.0% | - | - | 3.7 |
| WashingtonWASH(2-3) | - | - | - | 0.6% | 7.8% | 32.6% | 43.3% | 15.8% | - | - | 3.3 |
| PurduePUR(2-3) | - | - | - | 0.1% | 4.5% | 33.2% | 50.2% | 12.0% | - | - | 3.3 |
| RutgersRUTG(1-4) | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.7% | 9.4% | 44.2% | 45.7% | - | 1.7 |
| Michigan StateMSU(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.4% | 6.0% | 28.8% | 45.3% | 19.5% | 1.2 |
| MarylandMD(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.8% | 9.2% | 37.7% | 52.3% | 0.6 |
Data from 2026-11-02
Who is still alive for the Big Ten Championship Game?
As of Latest, Indiana (68.9%), Ohio State (61.9%), UCLA (49.3%) and USC (8.4%) currently have the best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely Big Ten Championship Game matchup?
Indiana vs. Ohio State is the most likely Big Ten Championship Game matchup at 35.5%, followed by Indiana vs. UCLA (26.7%) and Ohio State vs. UCLA (18.5%).
What is the biggest game in the Big Ten Championship Game race this week?
Ohio State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Oregon would put its Big Ten Championship Game odds at 71.2%, while a loss would drop them to 16.7%.
Which Big Ten contender can least afford to lose again?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts USC's Big Ten Championship Game odds at 79.6%; even one more loss drops that to 0.9%.