Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 0-0 | 1-0 | 57.7% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 0-1 | 40.7% | |
| T1 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 25.7% | |
| T1 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 25.3% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 0-0 | 0-1 | 23.7% | |
| T1 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 19.4% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3.9% | |
| T1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2.3% | |
| T1 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1.3% | |
| T1 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 0-1 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 57.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 58.3% (+0.6%) | 57.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 70.2% (+12.4%) | 37.5% (-20.2%) | |
| 58.0% (+0.3%) | 57.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 57.7% (-0.0%) | 57.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 58.1% (+0.4%) | 57.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 58.3% (+0.6%) | 57.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 57.8% (+0.1%) | 57.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 57.6% (-0.1%) | 57.9% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern UtahNew Mexico State
Eastern KentuckyFlorida InternationalJacksonville StateMiddle TennesseeCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 70.2% • Scenario: 61.9%
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 99.6% | 72.5% | 10.6% | <0.1% | 57.7% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 99.1% | 70.0% | 10.2% | <0.1% | 40.7% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 98.9% | 67.4% | 8.8% | <0.1% | 25.7% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | 100% | 98.7% | 64.5% | 7.7% | <0.1% | 25.3% |
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.5% | 69.8% | 9.6% | <0.1% | 23.7% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | 100% | 99.1% | 67.3% | 8.7% | <0.1% | 19.4% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 100% | 75.1% | 10.9% | - | 3.9% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 98.5% | 68.4% | 8.8% | - | 2.3% |
| UTEPUTEP | 100% | 100% | 69.0% | 10.4% | <0.1% | 1.3% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | 90.0% | 13.2% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB(0-0) | 7.3% | 24.1% | 32.9% | 23.5% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | 3.3% | 14.9% | 28.2% | 28.4% | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.3 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-0) | 1.2% | 8.0% | 21.6% | 30.7% | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-0) | 1.1% | 7.7% | 21.2% | 30.3% | 24.6% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0) | 0.8% | 6.6% | 19.3% | 29.5% | 25.8% | 13.5% | 4.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0) | 0.7% | 5.3% | 16.3% | 27.8% | 27.3% | 16.1% | 5.4% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 10.9% | 24.0% | 30.7% | 21.9% | 7.9% | 1.1% | 3.2 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 8.3% | 20.3% | 30.0% | 25.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 2.9 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 15.8% | 28.8% | 30.1% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 2.6 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 10.3% | 27.0% | 38.0% | 22.2% | 1.3 |
Data from 2024-09-02