Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W32-25 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:14% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:68% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:30% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:22% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:64% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:46% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:35% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:34% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:53% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 5.3% | 99.1% |
| 6-2 | 16.3% | 67.3% |
| 5-3 | 27.8% | 8.7% |
| 4-4 | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 16.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 19.4% (-0.0%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.2% (-0.2%) | 19.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 19.2% (-0.1%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.4% (+0.0%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.1% (-0.3%) | 19.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.1%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.2% (-0.1%) | 19.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.4% (-0.0%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 19.7% • Scenario: 38.1%
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
95.0%
1.0%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
83.7%
4.6%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.2%
0.1%99.2%
0.2%99.0%
0.1%98.6%
0.3%98.3%
0.2%97.2%
0.1%96.0%
0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.0%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%52.3%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%47.8%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
61.1%
11.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.6%98.9%
0.3%98.1%
0.6%97.7%
0.4%94.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.5%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.3%
0.1%78.9%
0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%78.3%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.5%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.6%
0.1%76.4%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
<0.1%72.9%
0.1%72.9%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
0.1%65.3%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.7%
0.1%63.3%
0.2%63.2%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.9%
0.1%59.8%
0.3%59.8%
<0.1%58.5%
0.5%56.0%
0.2%55.4%
0.2%53.1%
0.2%52.5%
0.1%50.9%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.6%
0.2%46.2%
<0.1%46.1%
0.2%44.3%
0.1%43.0%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02