Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W76-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:86% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:73% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:87% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:60% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:56% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:70% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:12% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 99.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.8% | 64.2% |
| 6-2 | 9.3% | 4.9% |
| 5-3 | 23.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 31.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 22.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.7% (+0.1%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.1%) | 1.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.0%) | 1.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.1%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.2%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.0%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.1%) | 1.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.1%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.1%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.1%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.1%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.1%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
66.6%
1.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
90.9%
<0.1%
87.5%
<0.1%
82.7%
<0.1%
78.6%
<0.1%
77.5%
0.2%
76.6%
0.1%
74.1%
<0.1%
72.0%
<0.1%
51.8%
0.5%Any 2 losses
11.3%
5.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%51.5%
0.2%47.4%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.6%
0.1%11.0%
0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.2%
0.4%5.9%
<0.1%5.2%
0.3%4.4%
0.4%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.8%
1.5%3.6%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%1.0%
1.1%Any 3 losses
7.6%
2.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.3%
0.5%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.3%
0.2%Any 4 losses
7.8%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02