Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
57.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:62% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:91% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:78% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:41% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:95% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 24.1% | 99.6% |
| 6-2 | 32.9% | 72.5% |
| 5-3 | 23.5% | 10.6% |
| 4-4 | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
32.1%
18.5%
18.2%
17.6%
13.5%
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 58.3% (+0.6%) | 57.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 70.2% (+12.4%) | 37.5% (-20.2%) | |
| 58.0% (+0.3%) | 57.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 57.7% (-0.0%) | 57.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 58.1% (+0.4%) | 57.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 58.3% (+0.6%) | 57.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 57.8% (+0.1%) | 57.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 57.6% (-0.1%) | 57.9% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 70.2% • Scenario: 61.9%
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.2%Any 1 loss
99.8%
10.8%100.0%
3.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%99.7%
0.8%99.7%
1.1%99.6%
1.3%99.6%
1.3%99.4%
1.8%Any 2 losses
88.5%
23.7%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.5%99.7%
0.3%99.7%
1.7%99.6%
1.9%99.6%
1.8%99.5%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.5%
1.1%99.4%
0.3%99.3%
2.6%99.2%
0.4%97.8%
0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.7%
0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
0.2%92.8%
<0.1%91.2%
0.1%91.0%
0.1%89.8%
<0.1%89.2%
0.2%89.1%
0.2%88.0%
0.3%87.9%
0.2%87.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%82.6%
0.1%81.5%
0.4%75.5%
0.4%73.4%
0.7%71.2%
0.5%69.6%
0.5%69.2%
1.0%68.7%
0.6%68.1%
0.8%64.5%
0.6%62.9%
1.1%62.1%
1.1%Any 3 losses
61.6%
28.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.4%99.7%
0.3%99.6%
0.3%99.5%
0.5%99.3%
0.7%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.5%98.4%
0.2%97.7%
0.2%96.4%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%92.7%
0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%89.8%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%89.0%
0.2%88.9%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.7%
0.1%88.0%
0.2%88.0%
<0.1%87.9%
0.1%87.4%
0.3%87.0%
<0.1%86.4%
0.3%86.3%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%85.2%
0.2%85.1%
0.2%84.9%
<0.1%83.8%
0.3%83.6%
0.4%83.5%
0.4%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.0%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
0.2%74.0%
<0.1%72.6%
0.6%72.2%
0.9%71.9%
0.9%71.2%
0.7%70.9%
0.2%70.3%
0.1%69.4%
0.1%69.2%
1.2%68.5%
0.2%68.5%
<0.1%68.5%
0.2%68.4%
1.3%68.0%
0.7%68.0%
0.1%67.4%
<0.1%67.4%
0.2%67.1%
0.9%67.0%
<0.1%65.3%
1.6%63.5%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
1.6%62.0%
0.3%62.0%
<0.1%61.8%
0.1%61.4%
0.3%59.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.6%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.1%13.1%
0.1%13.0%
0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%11.9%
0.2%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
0.1%10.7%
0.3%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
0.6%9.6%
0.2%9.4%
0.3%9.1%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.5%8.4%
0.1%7.6%
0.3%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.3%7.0%
0.7%6.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.7%
0.4%4.5%
0.4%Any 4 losses
30.8%
18.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%89.9%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.1%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.7%
0.3%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.6%
0.3%76.3%
<0.1%76.1%
0.1%75.0%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%71.3%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.9%
0.1%69.8%
0.1%69.5%
<0.1%68.5%
0.4%67.6%
0.1%67.4%
0.4%66.8%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.5%
0.1%64.3%
0.2%64.1%
0.4%63.3%
0.2%60.8%
0.2%60.7%
0.4%60.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.2%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.6%
0.2%15.5%
0.2%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
0.1%15.1%
0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.2%13.7%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.5%
0.2%13.2%
0.2%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
0.3%11.8%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
0.2%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
0.2%10.5%
0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
0.5%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
1.0%7.9%
0.8%7.8%
0.6%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.8%7.3%
<0.1%7.0%
0.6%6.9%
0.4%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
0.6%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
0.4%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%4.9%
0.4%4.6%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02