Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W62-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:79% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:67% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:14% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:49% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:65% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:42% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:75% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 13.3% | 96.0% |
| 6-2 | 26.6% | 43.3% |
| 5-3 | 29.3% | 1.0% |
| 4-4 | 18.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 7.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 27.2% (-0.1%) | 27.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 27.4% (+0.1%) | 27.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 27.6% (+0.3%) | 27.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 27.4% (+0.1%) | 27.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 27.1% (-0.2%) | 27.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 27.3% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-27.3%) | |
| 27.2% (-0.1%) | 27.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 27.3% (-0.0%) | 27.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 27.3% (+0.0%) | 27.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 27.1% (-0.2%) | 27.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 27.3% (-0.0%) | 27.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 28.3% (+1.0%) | 26.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 27.7% (+0.4%) | 27.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 27.4% (+0.1%) | 27.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 26.7% (-0.6%) | 27.6% (+0.3%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
98.4%
1.5%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%96.1%
0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.5%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
87.9%
7.1%100.0%
1.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.2%98.1%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.4%
0.1%97.2%
0.2%97.1%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.3%
1.0%96.3%
0.5%95.9%
0.4%95.7%
0.4%95.3%
0.8%95.2%
0.1%95.0%
0.2%93.9%
<0.1%92.6%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.2%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
0.2%30.6%
<0.1%27.4%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
64.7%
16.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
0.1%98.2%
0.2%97.3%
0.3%97.3%
0.2%96.8%
<0.1%96.8%
0.8%96.6%
0.4%96.5%
1.6%96.4%
0.3%96.3%
0.6%96.3%
0.6%95.6%
<0.1%95.0%
0.2%95.0%
<0.1%94.4%
1.1%92.4%
0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.1%
0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.7%
0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.9%
0.1%52.7%
<0.1%52.2%
0.1%50.6%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.8%
0.2%48.3%
0.1%47.7%
0.1%47.7%
0.5%47.5%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%47.1%
0.2%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
0.3%46.2%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.5%
0.2%45.3%
0.3%44.5%
0.3%44.3%
0.3%43.7%
<0.1%43.6%
0.3%42.4%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
0.7%41.7%
<0.1%41.6%
0.4%41.5%
<0.1%41.0%
0.2%40.4%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
0.1%38.2%
0.5%37.8%
0.5%36.8%
<0.1%36.5%
1.0%36.4%
0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.9%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
0.3%29.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
34.0%
21.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.5%
0.2%96.9%
0.1%96.9%
0.2%96.8%
<0.1%96.0%
0.4%95.0%
0.3%93.8%
0.2%93.1%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.9%
0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
0.1%54.4%
0.1%53.2%
0.2%53.1%
<0.1%53.0%
0.3%52.8%
0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.3%
0.2%52.0%
<0.1%51.7%
0.2%51.6%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.4%49.3%
0.2%48.6%
0.4%48.3%
0.1%48.2%
0.3%48.1%
<0.1%47.8%
0.4%47.7%
0.3%47.7%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%46.6%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.4%
0.8%45.3%
<0.1%44.7%
0.1%44.0%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.5%
0.5%43.1%
<0.1%43.1%
1.1%42.1%
0.2%41.7%
<0.1%41.6%
0.6%40.4%
0.2%40.4%
0.1%40.0%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
0.8%38.8%
0.8%38.2%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.6%
0.4%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.6%
0.3%35.5%
<0.1%34.8%
0.6%34.1%
1.5%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.6%
0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
0.3%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.6%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.7%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.5%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02