Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:44% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:48% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:51% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:77% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:46% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:56% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:44% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:39% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 5.3% | 74.4% |
| 6-2 | 17.0% | 44.2% |
| 5-3 | 28.0% | 18.4% |
| 4-4 | 27.3% | 2.6% |
| 3-5 | 15.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 17.9% (-0.1%) | 18.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.7% (-0.3%) | 18.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.5% (-0.5%) | 18.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 17.8% (-0.2%) | 18.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.9% (-0.1%) | 18.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 17.8% (-0.1%) | 18.4% (+0.4%) | |
| 18.0% (+0.0%) | 18.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.9% (-0.1%) | 18.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.0% (+0.0%) | 18.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 18.0% (+0.0%) | 18.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 18.4% (+0.4%) | 17.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 17.9% (-0.1%) | 18.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 17.9% (-0.1%) | 18.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 17.7% (-0.3%) | 18.0% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
82.6%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%42.3%
0.1%35.9%
0.1%Any 2 losses
62.3%
3.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.2%
0.1%90.1%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%42.1%
0.1%40.6%
0.2%40.6%
0.1%38.9%
0.1%38.6%
0.1%37.4%
<0.1%35.8%
0.2%34.2%
0.1%29.0%
0.1%25.9%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%Any 3 losses
52.3%
9.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.2%
0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.7%
0.1%92.5%
<0.1%91.6%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%90.0%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.9%
0.2%45.0%
0.1%44.8%
0.2%44.2%
0.1%44.2%
0.2%43.4%
0.1%42.9%
0.3%42.8%
0.1%42.1%
0.2%41.9%
0.1%41.9%
0.2%40.9%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
0.1%37.3%
0.1%37.0%
0.3%35.4%
0.1%35.3%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
36.0%
15.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%92.9%
0.2%92.5%
0.2%92.5%
0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.8%
0.1%90.4%
<0.1%90.1%
0.1%89.9%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.6%
0.1%86.6%
<0.1%86.0%
0.1%85.0%
0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
0.3%48.5%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.1%
0.1%43.6%
0.2%43.6%
0.2%43.5%
<0.1%43.0%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%42.0%
0.2%41.8%
0.3%40.7%
0.2%40.4%
0.2%40.2%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.1%38.6%
0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
0.2%36.4%
<0.1%36.3%
0.2%36.1%
0.1%36.0%
0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.5%
0.3%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
0.2%32.4%
<0.1%31.1%
0.3%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.1%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.4%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%3.7%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
0.1%3.2%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.4%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02