Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W57-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:76% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:42% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:86% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:54% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:80% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:37% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:78% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:38% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:54% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:47% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.5% | 94.0% |
| 7-2 | 12.3% | 44.4% |
| 6-3 | 23.8% | 2.2% |
| 5-4 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 8.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.6% (-0.1%) | 9.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.6% (-0.1%) | 9.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.6% (-0.1%) | 9.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.6% (-0.1%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.7% (-0.1%) | 9.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.6% (-0.1%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.3%) | 9.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.3%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 10.3% (+0.6%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.3% (+0.6%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
94.5%
1.7%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
96.3%
0.2%
96.2%
0.2%
96.0%
<0.1%
95.6%
0.3%
95.3%
0.2%
93.2%
0.2%
90.6%
<0.1%
87.2%
0.3%Any 2 losses
57.0%
6.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.5%
0.2%95.5%
0.2%95.1%
0.1%94.4%
0.1%93.4%
0.2%93.2%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.6%
0.3%88.9%
0.1%66.2%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%53.9%
0.2%53.7%
<0.1%52.0%
0.1%51.6%
<0.1%51.1%
0.2%50.6%
<0.1%50.2%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.6%
0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.4%
0.2%44.9%
0.3%44.1%
<0.1%43.7%
0.4%41.0%
0.3%40.8%
0.3%40.3%
0.4%38.9%
0.2%38.9%
<0.1%38.3%
0.3%37.5%
<0.1%36.7%
0.4%36.1%
<0.1%35.8%
0.3%Any 3 losses
22.0%
14.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.5%
0.2%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
0.2%53.5%
0.2%52.6%
<0.1%52.5%
0.4%52.3%
<0.1%50.2%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%47.1%
0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.0%
0.1%45.9%
<0.1%45.5%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.9%
0.1%42.3%
0.2%40.3%
<0.1%40.0%
0.3%39.8%
0.1%39.6%
<0.1%38.6%
0.2%38.0%
<0.1%37.0%
0.3%36.6%
0.2%35.7%
0.4%34.7%
<0.1%33.8%
0.1%33.6%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%30.2%
0.2%26.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%4.9%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.6%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.4%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
0.3%2.0%
0.4%2.0%
0.4%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.5%1.6%
0.3%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.3%1.2%
0.3%1.0%
0.3%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%Any 4 losses
7.5%
10.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.9%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%34.0%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.3%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.3%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
0.3%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.3%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.5%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
0.5%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.4%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
0.3%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
0.3%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.4%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02