Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L7-40 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:9% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:38% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:30% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:30% | |
| 8 | 10/16 | Win prob:71% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:40% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:34% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:24% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:4% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 1.0% | 69.0% |
| 5-3 | 5.1% | 10.4% |
| 4-4 | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 28.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 30.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 16.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 3.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.5% • Scenario: 32.7%
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
93.3%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
65.6%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02