Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-22 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:33% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:69% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:23% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:17% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:29% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:32% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:29% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:83% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 92.6% |
| 6-2 | 1.3% | 33.3% |
| 5-3 | 6.2% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 16.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 28.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 15.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 2.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.6%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.4%) | 1.5% (+0.9%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
97.5%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
51.1%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
29.6%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.3%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%26.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
5.5%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02