Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W48-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:59% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:61% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:53% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:78% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:21% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:51% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 5.1% | 91.7% |
| 7-2 | 16.1% | 39.9% |
| 6-3 | 27.0% | 2.1% |
| 5-4 | 26.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 16.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.2% (-0.0%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.4% (+0.2%) | 12.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.1%) | 12.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.7% (+0.5%) | 12.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.1%) | 12.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.1%) | 12.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.4% (+0.2%) | 12.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.1%) | 12.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 12.2% (-0.1%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.2% (-0.0%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.1%) | 12.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.1%) | 12.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.2% (-0.1%) | 12.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.9% (-0.3%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.2% (-0.0%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
93.0%
2.1%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
98.4%
<0.1%
96.5%
<0.1%
96.0%
0.2%
95.9%
0.2%
94.2%
0.1%
93.5%
0.2%
92.7%
<0.1%
87.9%
0.9%Any 2 losses
56.1%
8.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.2%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%94.8%
0.1%94.6%
0.1%93.6%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.4%
0.1%92.7%
0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.9%
0.1%90.5%
<0.1%89.4%
0.5%86.8%
0.6%73.7%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.4%
0.1%56.2%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.4%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.6%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%44.9%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
0.1%43.7%
0.1%43.4%
0.1%43.3%
<0.1%43.1%
0.4%42.3%
0.2%42.3%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.9%
0.2%40.5%
0.2%40.3%
<0.1%40.0%
0.1%36.5%
0.5%35.3%
0.8%34.3%
0.8%27.0%
0.6%Any 3 losses
23.2%
17.3%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%93.6%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%87.2%
0.4%83.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.2%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.7%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.7%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.2%
0.3%46.6%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.2%
0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.7%
<0.1%44.6%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.2%
0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.3%
0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.5%
0.2%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
0.2%38.7%
0.4%38.2%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%38.0%
0.1%37.1%
<0.1%36.9%
0.1%36.8%
0.5%36.7%
0.1%36.5%
0.1%36.1%
0.5%35.7%
0.1%34.9%
0.5%34.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.5%
0.5%31.4%
0.4%29.5%
<0.1%29.1%
0.4%28.7%
0.4%28.6%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.3%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.4%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
0.3%2.4%
0.7%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.0%
0.2%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.3%1.7%
0.5%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.3%
0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.6%1.0%
0.6%1.0%
0.3%1.0%
0.5%0.8%
0.3%Any 4 losses
9.4%
13.7%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%54.8%
0.2%53.6%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.6%
<0.1%46.2%
0.1%43.8%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%39.8%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.8%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.8%
0.3%30.6%
0.4%26.4%
0.3%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.3%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.6%
0.2%1.6%
0.2%1.6%
0.4%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
0.5%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.4%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.5%1.0%
0.4%1.0%
0.3%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.4%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02