ArmyBlack Knights

2-0 T1st (1-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

31.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsLehighLEH	W42-7
2	9/07	@Florida AtlanticFAU	W24-7
4	9/21	vsRiceRICE	Win prob:77%
5	9/26	@TempleTEM	Win prob:87%
6	10/05	@TulsaTLSA	Win prob:72%
7	10/12	vsUABUAB	Win prob:81%
8	10/19	vsEast CarolinaECU	Win prob:65%
10	11/02	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:46%
11	11/09	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:43%
13	11/23	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:9%
14	11/30	vsUTSAUTSA	Win prob:58%
	12/14	vsNavyNAVY(N)	Win prob:58%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	3.7%	100.0%
8-1	15.9%	86.1%
7-2	29.0%	41.4%
6-3	28.4%	9.1%
5-4	16.1%	0.1%
4-5	5.7%	0%
3-6	1.2%	0%
2-7	0.1%	0%
1-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

47.6%

29.4%

9.6%

7.6%

5.7%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TulaneTULN@OklahomaOU	32.4% (+0.5%)	31.9% (-0.1%)
MemphisMEM@Florida StateFSU	31.8% (-0.1%)	32.0% (+0.1%)
Oklahoma StateOKST@TulsaTLSA	31.9% (-0.0%)	32.0% (+0.0%)
UTSAUTSA@TexasTEX	32.1% (+0.2%)	31.9% (-0.0%)
North TexasUNT@Texas TechTTU	31.9% (-0.0%)	31.9% (+0.0%)
Gardner-WebbGWEB@CharlotteCLT	31.9% (+0.0%)	31.9% (+0.0%)
Florida InternationalFIU@Florida AtlanticFAU	32.0% (+0.1%)	31.9% (-0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@Southern MissUSM	32.0% (+0.1%)	31.8% (-0.1%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@TempleTEM	31.9% (-0.0%)	32.2% (+0.3%)
UABUAB@ArkansasARK	32.1% (+0.2%)	31.9% (-0.0%)
App StateAPP@East CarolinaECU	32.0% (+0.1%)	31.9% (-0.1%)
RiceRICE@HoustonHOU	31.6% (-0.3%)	32.1% (+0.1%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.2%

Any 1 loss

96.1%

2.4%

100.0%

1.5%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.1%

93.8%

<0.1%

91.7%

<0.1%

86.8%

<0.1%

85.3%

0.2%

79.2%

<0.1%

79.0%

<0.1%

77.6%

0.1%

Any 2 losses

83.4%

10.4%

100.0%

1.1%

100.0%

1.8%

100.0%

0.1%

95.1%

<0.1%

93.1%

<0.1%

91.8%

<0.1%

90.9%

<0.1%

89.8%

<0.1%

89.5%

<0.1%

87.9%

0.2%

87.3%

<0.1%

86.1%

0.6%

85.7%

<0.1%

85.5%

0.2%

85.2%

<0.1%

84.8%

0.4%

84.7%

0.1%

83.6%

0.3%

83.1%

0.9%

82.4%

1.1%

82.0%

2.0%

81.8%

0.2%

81.3%

<0.1%

80.8%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

29.6%

<0.1%

28.1%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

27.2%

<0.1%

26.3%

<0.1%

23.5%

<0.1%

21.4%

<0.1%

20.6%

<0.1%

19.7%

<0.1%

19.1%

<0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

15.6%

<0.1%

13.1%

0.1%

13.0%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.5%

0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

56.5%

21.9%

100.0%

1.3%

94.1%

<0.1%

91.7%

<0.1%

90.8%

0.2%

89.8%

0.4%

88.6%

0.3%

87.5%

<0.1%

86.6%

0.5%

86.4%

0.3%

85.9%

0.4%

85.5%

0.7%

83.9%

0.3%

83.7%

<0.1%

83.3%

1.4%

83.2%

2.3%

82.1%

0.6%

81.5%

1.0%

81.2%

0.2%

81.2%

0.8%

80.3%

1.3%

80.2%

0.1%

78.7%

<0.1%

54.5%

<0.1%

53.3%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

36.4%

0.2%

36.0%

<0.1%

34.6%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

31.3%

<0.1%

30.6%

<0.1%

30.2%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

28.9%

0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

27.5%

0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

26.8%

0.1%

26.7%

<0.1%

25.8%

<0.1%

25.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

23.6%

0.6%

23.5%

<0.1%

23.5%

<0.1%

23.5%

0.2%

23.3%

0.2%

23.1%

<0.1%

22.9%

0.8%

22.8%

0.3%

22.8%

0.1%

22.6%

<0.1%

22.4%

0.5%

22.3%

0.3%

22.1%

<0.1%

21.4%

<0.1%

21.0%

0.4%

21.0%

0.3%

20.8%

<0.1%

20.7%

<0.1%

20.0%

0.2%

19.6%

0.3%

18.3%

<0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

17.4%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.0%

0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

14.7%

1.5%

14.7%

1.1%

14.3%

0.6%

14.0%

0.1%

13.0%

<0.1%

13.0%

0.2%

12.0%

<0.1%

10.9%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

8.9%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

Any 4 losses

33.7%

21.3%

88.2%

0.2%

88.0%

0.5%

87.6%

0.3%

86.6%

0.4%

83.8%

1.7%

83.0%

1.0%

82.2%

0.7%

42.1%

<0.1%

37.7%

<0.1%

35.7%

<0.1%

33.6%

0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.9%

<0.1%

30.2%

<0.1%

29.1%

0.1%

28.4%

<0.1%

28.4%

0.2%

28.1%

0.1%

27.9%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

27.1%

0.1%

27.0%

<0.1%

25.6%

0.4%

25.0%

<0.1%

24.4%

0.1%

24.3%

0.3%

24.2%

0.5%

24.1%

1.0%

23.8%

<0.1%

23.8%

<0.1%

23.5%

<0.1%

23.5%

<0.1%

23.0%

0.4%

22.8%

0.2%

22.5%

0.3%

22.4%

<0.1%

21.9%

0.3%

21.6%

0.5%

21.4%

0.2%

21.3%

<0.1%

20.8%

0.4%

20.8%

0.3%

20.7%

0.7%

20.7%

<0.1%

20.4%

0.6%

20.3%

0.2%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.7%

0.2%

19.3%

0.2%

18.6%

0.1%

18.3%

0.4%

18.0%

0.2%

17.7%

0.1%

17.7%

0.2%

17.5%

0.1%

16.2%

0.4%

15.8%

<0.1%

15.6%

0.8%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.0%

1.8%

13.6%

1.3%

12.8%

1.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.0%

0.7%

11.4%

0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.1%

0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

0.9%

0.1%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com