Navy

NavyMidshipmen

2-0 T1st (1-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

8.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

NavySchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/31
vsBucknellBUCK
W49-21
29/07
vsTempleTEM
W38-11
49/21
vsMemphisMEM
Win prob:28%
59/28
@UABUAB
Win prob:62%
610/05
@Air ForceAF
Win prob:25%
810/19
vsCharlotteCLT
Win prob:83%
910/26
vsNotre DameND(N)
Win prob:7%
1011/02
@RiceRICE
Win prob:56%
1111/09
@South FloridaUSF
Win prob:39%
1211/16
vsTulaneTULN
Win prob:35%
1411/29
@East CarolinaECU
Win prob:41%
12/14
vsArmyARMY(N)
Win prob:42%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.2%
100.0%
8-1
2.1%
93.3%
7-2
8.8%
43.7%
6-3
20.8%
10.9%
5-4
28.8%
0.1%
4-5
24.4%
0%
3-6
11.8%
0%
2-7
2.9%
0%
1-8
0.3%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Navy CCG Opponents

if Navy makes the CCG

MemphisMemphis
41.7%
TulaneTulane
22.3%
ArmyArmy
19.0%
UTSAUT San Antonio
9.7%
North TexasNorth Texas
7.3%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyThis Week's Impact

Game
NavyCCG OddsAway
NavyCCG OddsHome
TulaneTULN@OklahomaOU
8.0%
(-0.3%)		8.3%
(+0.0%)
MemphisMEM@Florida StFSU
8.3%
(+0.0%)		8.3%
(-0.0%)
Oklahoma StOKST@TulsaTLSA
8.3%
(+0.1%)		8.1%
(-0.2%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
8.5%
(+0.2%)		8.3%
(-0.0%)
North TexasUNT@Texas TechTTU
8.3%
(+0.0%)		8.2%
(-0.0%)
Gardner-WebbGWEB@CharlotteCLT
8.2%
(-0.1%)		8.3%
(+0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@FL AtlanticFAU
8.3%
(+0.1%)		8.2%
(-0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@Southern MissUSM
8.3%
(+0.0%)		8.2%
(-0.1%)
Coastal CarCCU@TempleTEM
8.3%
(+0.0%)		7.8%
(-0.5%)
UABUAB@ArkansasARK
8.4%
(+0.2%)		8.2%
(-0.0%)
Appalachian StAPP@East CarolinaECU
8.4%
(+0.1%)		8.2%
(-0.1%)
RiceRICE@HoustonHOU
8.4%
(+0.1%)		8.2%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Navy CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
96.1%
0.1%
Notre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
South Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
East Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
Air Force
100.0%
<0.1%
Army
100.0%
<0.1%
Charlotte
100.0%
<0.1%
Tulane
85.7%
<0.1%
Memphis
71.4%
<0.1%
Rice
66.7%
<0.1%
UAB
50.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
87.0%
0.8%
ArmyNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmy
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre Dame
100.0%
0.1%
Air ForceUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotte
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRice
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRice
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRice
97.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth Florida
95.1%
<0.1%
Notre DameUAB
93.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre Dame
93.2%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulane
91.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphis
90.6%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre Dame
88.8%
0.1%
ArmyTulane
87.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceTulane
86.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre Dame
85.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotte
66.7%
<0.1%
MemphisUAB
55.6%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRice
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceTulane
42.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth Florida
37.5%
<0.1%
MemphisRice
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulane
27.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMemphis
22.2%
<0.1%
South FloridaUAB
14.3%
<0.1%
MemphisTulane
10.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
61.0%
4.0%
Air ForceArmyNotre Dame
100.0%
0.2%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotte
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRice
97.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameUAB
96.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyTulane
95.8%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre Dame
95.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRice
95.2%
0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth Florida
95.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre Dame
93.8%
0.2%
ArmyNotre DameSouth Florida
93.8%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast Carolina
93.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth Florida
93.2%
0.2%
ArmyNotre DameUAB
92.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyUAB
92.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre Dame
90.7%
0.3%
Air ForceArmyMemphis
90.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTulane
89.6%
0.3%
ArmyNotre DameTulane
87.4%
0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre Dame
84.1%
0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteEast Carolina
83.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRice
71.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameUAB
71.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteRice
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteSouth Florida
66.7%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceUAB
66.7%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaRice
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth FloridaUAB
60.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceSouth Florida
53.8%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceUAB
51.6%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisRice
47.6%
<0.1%
ArmyTulaneUAB
42.9%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceSouth Florida
42.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaUAB
41.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameRice
36.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameUAB
35.7%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteEast Carolina
33.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphisNotre Dame
32.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameSouth Florida
32.0%
0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaMemphis
31.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameSouth Florida
30.8%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTulane
28.6%
0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaRice
28.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulaneUAB
28.6%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameRice
26.8%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceTulane
26.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisUAB
26.7%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisRice
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaTulane
25.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameRice
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaSouth Florida
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceSouth Florida
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaTulane
23.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceTulaneUAB
23.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
20.8%
0.2%
MemphisNotre DameUAB
20.8%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
20.5%
0.2%
East CarolinaNotre DameTulane
19.5%
0.1%
MemphisNotre DameTulane
16.8%
0.2%
ArmyEast CarolinaMemphis
16.7%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaUAB
16.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisTulane
15.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth FloridaTulane
14.3%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisTulane
14.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceUAB
14.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceTulane
13.3%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisSouth Florida
12.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteEast CarolinaNotre Dame
11.1%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameTulane
11.1%
<0.1%
MemphisTulaneUAB
10.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisSouth Florida
3.3%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
38.2%
8.7%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteNotre Dame
97.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameRice
95.9%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameUAB
95.5%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameSouth Florida
95.1%
0.3%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaNotre Dame
94.5%
0.3%
Air ForceArmyMemphisNotre Dame
90.1%
0.5%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameTulane
86.7%
0.3%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameSouth Florida
70.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRiceUAB
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameRice
60.7%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameRice
57.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRiceSouth Florida
55.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameUAB
53.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisRice
46.4%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameUAB
45.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceUAB
43.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaUAB
42.9%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceUAB
41.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteEast CarolinaNotre Dame
41.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth FloridaTulane
40.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameSouth Florida
40.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameUAB
39.6%
0.1%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameRice
39.6%
0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameSouth Florida
37.6%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
37.3%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisUAB
36.8%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteEast CarolinaNotre Dame
36.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth FloridaUAB
36.4%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTulaneUAB
36.1%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
34.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameUAB
32.8%
0.2%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameSouth Florida
32.7%
0.3%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaSouth Florida
31.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
30.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceCharlotteNotre DameTulane
30.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaRice
30.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
30.3%
0.2%
Air ForceCharlotteMemphisNotre Dame
29.8%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceTulane
28.9%
0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameRice
28.7%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceTulane
28.0%
0.2%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameRice
27.4%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
26.2%
0.2%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameTulane
26.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTulaneUAB
26.0%
0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameUAB
25.0%
0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameRice
24.7%
0.3%
Air ForceArmyRiceTulane
24.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteMemphisNotre Dame
22.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
21.8%
0.5%
Air ForceEast CarolinaNotre DameTulane
20.9%
0.4%
Air ForceArmyCharlotteSouth Florida
20.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaTulane
20.0%
0.4%
Air ForceEast CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
19.7%
0.5%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaTulane
19.3%
0.2%
Air ForceArmyMemphisTulane
18.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisSouth Florida
17.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaMemphis
17.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameTulane
16.2%
0.2%
Air ForceArmyEast CarolinaTulane
15.8%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameTulane
15.3%
0.3%
Air ForceCharlotteEast CarolinaMemphis
14.3%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaMemphisNotre Dame
13.3%
0.2%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameTulane
13.2%
0.7%
ArmyMemphisRiceUAB
12.5%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNotre DameUAB
11.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyTulaneUAB
8.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteNotre DameRiceTulane
6.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameRiceUAB
2.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
1.7%
<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com