Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W62-28 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L24-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:22% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:43% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:18% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:28% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:67% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:28% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:39% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:35% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:20% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 90.7% |
| 6-2 | 1.6% | 32.5% |
| 5-3 | 7.1% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 18.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 13.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 2.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.2%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
83.3%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
51.2%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
37.4%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.4%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08