American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-08

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1ArmyARMY1-02-031.9%
T1NavyNAVY1-02-08.3%
T3MemphisMEM0-02-058.8%
T3TulaneTULN0-01-140.2%
T3UT San AntonioUTSA0-01-118.5%
T3North TexasUNT0-02-015.6%
T3East CarolinaECU0-02-011.3%
T3South FloridaUSF0-01-110.0%
T3FL AtlanticFAU0-10-22.3%
T3RiceRICE0-01-11.4%
T3UABUAB0-01-10.8%
T3TulsaTLSA0-01-10.7%
T3CharlotteCLT0-00-20.1%
T3TempleTEM0-10-2-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

117.4%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
213.4%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
38.3%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
47.7%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
56.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
64.5%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
74.2%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
83.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
93.2%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
103.0%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
112.7%
ArmyARMY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
122.5%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
132.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
142.1%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
151.6%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 58.8%
Game
MemphisCCG OddsAway
MemphisCCG OddsHome
TulaneTULN@OklahomaOU
59.0%
(+0.2%)		58.8%
(-0.0%)
MemphisMEM@Florida StFSU
58.8%
(-0.0%)		58.9%
(+0.0%)
Oklahoma StOKST@TulsaTLSA
58.9%
(+0.1%)		58.6%
(-0.3%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
57.7%
(-1.1%)		58.9%
(+0.0%)
North TexasUNT@Texas TechTTU
58.6%
(-0.3%)		59.0%
(+0.2%)
Gardner-WebbGWEB@CharlotteCLT
58.7%
(-0.1%)		58.9%
(+0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@FL AtlanticFAU
58.8%
(-0.1%)		58.9%
(+0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@Southern MissUSM
58.8%
(+0.0%)		58.9%
(+0.0%)
Coastal CarCCU@TempleTEM
58.9%
(+0.0%)		58.6%
(-0.2%)
UABUAB@ArkansasARK
58.4%
(-0.4%)		59.0%
(+0.1%)
Appalachian StAPP@East CarolinaECU
58.9%
(+0.1%)		58.8%
(-0.1%)
RiceRICE@HoustonHOU
59.0%
(+0.2%)		58.8%
(-0.1%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-3Overall
MemphisMEM--100%-97.9%-57.4%-2.5%58.8%
TulaneTULN--100%-90.3%-26.0%-0.2%40.2%
ArmyARMY100%86.1%-41.4%-9.1%-<0.1%-31.9%
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-96.0%-40.8%-0.8%18.5%
North TexasUNT--100%-99.5%-58.6%-2.4%15.6%
East CarolinaECU--100%-85.4%-21.0%-0.1%11.3%
South FloridaUSF--100%-92.0%-27.9%-0.6%10.0%
NavyNAVY100%93.3%-43.7%-10.9%-0.1%-8.3%
FL AtlanticFAU----83.9%-20.6%-0.1%2.3%
RiceRICE--100%-99.0%-60.7%-2.9%1.4%
UABUAB--100%-100%-47.5%-1.3%0.8%
TulsaTLSA--100%-90.7%-32.5%-0.4%0.7%
CharlotteCLT--100%-88.9%-44.8%-1.8%0.1%
TempleTEM--------3.3%-

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-81-70-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(1-0)3.7%15.9%0.0%29.0%0.0%28.4%0.0%16.1%0.0%5.7%0.0%1.2%0.0%0.1%0.0%<0.1%0.0%-6.4
MemphisMEM(0-0)-0.0%10.3%0.0%29.4%0.0%33.5%0.0%19.1%0.0%6.4%0.0%1.2%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.1
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%8.0%0.0%26.0%0.0%33.4%0.0%22.3%0.0%8.3%0.0%1.8%0.0%0.2%0.0%<0.1%0.0%6.0
NavyNAVY(1-0)0.2%2.1%0.0%8.8%0.0%20.8%0.0%28.8%0.0%24.4%0.0%11.8%0.0%2.9%0.0%0.3%0.0%-4.9
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%1.4%0.0%8.3%0.0%22.0%0.0%30.1%0.0%23.8%0.0%11.2%0.0%2.9%0.0%0.4%<0.1%4.9
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%1.0%0.0%7.1%0.0%19.9%0.0%29.4%0.0%25.4%0.0%13.0%0.0%3.6%0.0%0.5%<0.1%4.7
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%0.5%0.0%4.9%0.0%17.2%0.0%29.3%0.0%27.7%0.0%15.1%0.0%4.6%0.0%0.7%<0.1%4.5
North TexasUNT(0-0)-0.0%0.6%0.0%4.9%0.0%16.3%0.0%28.7%0.0%28.2%0.0%15.7%0.0%4.9%0.0%0.8%<0.1%4.5
FL AtlanticFAU(0-1)---0.0%0.9%0.0%7.0%0.0%20.7%0.0%31.5%0.0%25.9%0.0%11.4%0.0%2.4%0.2%3.8
RiceRICE(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%1.6%0.0%7.9%0.0%20.3%0.0%30.7%0.0%26.2%0.0%11.2%1.9%2.9
TulsaTLSA(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%1.6%0.0%7.1%0.0%18.5%0.0%29.2%0.0%27.2%0.0%13.5%2.6%2.8
UABUAB(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.3%0.0%6.4%0.0%18.5%0.0%30.9%0.0%27.6%0.0%12.8%2.4%2.8
CharlotteCLT(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%1.2%0.0%6.1%0.0%18.1%0.0%31.8%0.0%30.8%11.9%1.8
TempleTEM(0-1)---0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%4.8%0.0%19.8%0.0%41.5%33.1%1.0

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com