Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W16-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:87% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:57% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:81% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:30% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:82% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:52% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:47% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:35% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.9% | 92.6% |
| 6-2 | 13.7% | 30.0% |
| 5-3 | 26.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 28.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 18.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.8% (-0.4%) | 8.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 8.2% (+0.0%) | 8.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.9% (-0.3%) | 8.7% (+0.5%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.1%) | 8.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.2% (+0.0%) | 8.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.2% (-0.0%) | 8.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.1%) | 8.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 8.0% (-0.2%) | 8.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.0%) | 8.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 8.2% (+0.1%) | 8.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.1%) | 8.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.7% (-1.5%) | 8.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.0% (-0.2%) | 10.9% (+2.7%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
93.1%
3.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.7%
0.3%
95.3%
0.4%
93.6%
0.7%
93.5%
0.4%
91.5%
0.1%
89.7%
0.8%
88.8%
0.3%Any 2 losses
34.6%
11.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.3%
0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%86.8%
0.1%86.1%
0.1%85.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%46.6%
0.4%45.8%
0.4%44.8%
<0.1%43.8%
0.1%43.7%
0.3%42.6%
0.3%38.4%
0.6%38.3%
0.3%37.7%
0.4%37.4%
0.2%36.4%
<0.1%33.5%
0.2%30.2%
0.2%28.8%
0.8%28.0%
0.2%28.0%
0.5%27.2%
0.7%27.1%
0.7%25.4%
1.0%25.3%
0.9%24.7%
0.6%15.6%
1.6%Any 3 losses
26.8%
3.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.6%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.5%
<0.1%35.9%
0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%27.9%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.1%
0.1%25.8%
0.1%25.3%
<0.1%25.2%
0.1%24.5%
0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.3%
0.1%22.8%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.3%
0.1%13.8%
0.3%11.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
11.2%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08