Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:58% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:98% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:93% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:54% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:85% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 12.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 32.2% | 82.3% |
| 6-2 | 33.6% | 11.1% |
| 5-3 | 16.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 42.3% (-0.2%) | 42.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 43.6% (+1.2%) | 42.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 42.4% (-0.1%) | 42.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.7% (-1.8%) | 45.0% (+2.5%) | |
| 42.6% (+0.1%) | 42.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 42.7% (+0.3%) | 42.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 42.5% (+0.1%) | 42.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 42.4% (+0.0%) | 42.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 42.4% (-0.1%) | 42.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.6% (+0.1%) | 42.4% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
UL Monroe
Auburn
Georgia SouthernCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 45.0% • Scenario: 41.1%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
11.0%Any 1 loss
82.8%
30.2%
100.0%
1.2%98.0%
0.5%
95.6%
0.8%
90.7%
0.2%86.7%
4.8%
86.5%
1.8%
85.1%
3.5%
83.2%
9.3%
73.1%
8.0%Any 2 losses
18.2%
33.4%96.9%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%91.8%
0.2%88.1%
0.6%88.0%
<0.1%85.6%
0.4%84.3%
1.1%77.1%
0.9%53.6%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%29.1%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.1%
0.3%25.2%
0.3%24.8%
0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
0.2%21.1%
<0.1%20.9%
0.7%19.8%
0.2%19.0%
<0.1%17.7%
0.1%16.1%
0.8%16.0%
0.6%15.9%
1.6%15.7%
0.5%12.8%
0.6%12.4%
1.5%11.7%
0.4%11.2%
4.1%10.9%
3.2%9.8%
1.4%8.2%
3.6%8.1%
2.6%6.3%
6.9%Any 3 losses
11.5%
3.4%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%15.2%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
0.2%11.9%
0.4%11.8%
0.4%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.3%9.8%
0.2%7.0%
0.4%5.9%
0.7%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15