CaliforniaGolden Bears

3-1 T9th (0-1) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsUC DavisUCD	W31-13
2	9/07	@AuburnAUB	W21-14
3	9/14	vsSan Diego StateSDSU	W31-10
4	9/21	@Florida StateFSU	L9-14
6	10/05	vsMiamiMIA	Win prob:20%
7	10/12	@PittsburghPITT	Win prob:49%
8	10/19	vsNC StateNCSU	Win prob:66%
9	10/26	vsOregon StateORST	Win prob:46%
11	11/08	@Wake ForestWAKE	Win prob:66%
12	11/16	vsSyracuseSYR	Win prob:77%
13	11/23	vsStanfordSTAN	Win prob:84%
14	11/30	@SMUSMU	Win prob:22%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	0.6%	80.7%
6-2	6.1%	9.1%
5-3	21.9%	0.0%
4-4	33.7%	0%
3-5	25.6%	0%
2-6	10.1%	0%
1-7	1.8%	0%
0-8	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

46.6%

25.2%

14.6%

9.7%

3.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
LouisvilleLOU@Notre DameND	1.2% (+0.1%)	1.1% (-0.0%)
LouisianaUL@Wake ForestWAKE	1.1% (+0.0%)	1.1% (+0.0%)
Western KentuckyWKU@Boston CollegeBC	1.1% (+0.1%)	1.0% (-0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@ClemsonCLEM	1.8% (+0.8%)	1.0% (-0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@DukeDUKE	1.1% (+0.1%)	1.0% (-0.0%)
Holy CrossHC@SyracuseSYR	1.2% (+0.1%)	1.1% (-0.0%)
Florida StateFSU@SMUSMU	1.4% (+0.3%)	0.9% (-0.1%)
Northern IllinoisNIU@NC StateNCSU	1.1% (+0.1%)	1.0% (-0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@MiamiMIA	1.1% (+0.0%)	1.1% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Wake Forest

Western Kentucky

Stanford

North Carolina

Florida State

Northern Illinois

Virginia Tech

CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Florida State

CCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 28.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

79.0%

0.3%

Any 1 loss

17.5%

3.2%

82.1%

0.4%

19.5%

0.2%

19.2%

<0.1%

17.3%

0.2%

13.3%

0.3%

12.9%

<0.1%

8.3%

1.0%

6.3%

1.1%

Any 2 losses

8.8%

3.3%

21.6%

0.1%

20.5%

<0.1%

19.4%

0.2%

18.7%

0.2%

12.9%

0.3%

6.2%

1.1%

5.3%

1.3%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com