Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W73-17 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:38% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:51% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:72% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:17% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:44% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.4% | 91.9% |
| 6-2 | 3.4% | 25.7% |
| 5-3 | 12.7% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 26.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 19.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.3%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.2%) | 1.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.3%) | 1.3% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisville
Wake Forest
Boston College
Stanford
North Carolina
Holy Cross
SMUCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Virginia TechCCG: 1.7% • Scenario: 16.7%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
91.9%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
94.4%
<0.1%91.5%
0.1%91.2%
0.1%90.3%
<0.1%
89.0%
0.1%Any 2 losses
25.6%
3.4%100.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.1%39.4%
0.1%37.1%
0.2%37.0%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.9%
0.1%29.3%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.2%
0.2%26.4%
0.1%25.0%
0.1%21.7%
<0.1%19.9%
0.6%16.7%
0.5%12.7%
0.5%Any 3 losses
1.1%
2.1%11.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22