Big XII

Big XII Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-22

Big XIIConference Standings

T1UCFUCF1-03-027.9%
T1UtahUTAH1-04-027.0%
T1Texas TechTTU1-03-119.3%
T1BYUBYU1-04-016.4%
T1West VirginiaWVU1-02-25.5%
T1CincinnatiCIN1-03-13.6%
T1ColoradoCOLO1-03-10.2%
T8Iowa StISU0-03-042.9%
T8ArizonaARIZ0-02-128.6%
T8Kansas StKSU0-13-119.3%
T8Oklahoma StOKST0-13-13.7%
T8KansasKU0-11-32.9%
T8TCUTCU0-12-21.5%
T8Arizona StASU0-13-10.7%
T8BaylorBAY0-12-20.4%
T8HoustonHOU0-11-3<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big XII CCG Matchups

18.7%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
ISUIowa St
28.1%
Iowa StISU
vs
UCFUCF
37.5%
Iowa StISU
vs
UTAHUtah
45.1%
Iowa StISU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
54.6%
BYUBYU
vs
ISUIowa St
64.5%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
UCFUCF
74.4%
Iowa StISU
vs
KSUKansas St
84.2%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
UTAHUtah
94.1%
UCFUCF
vs
UTAHUtah
103.3%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
KSUKansas St
113.1%
Kansas StKSU
vs
UCFUCF
123.1%
Texas TechTTU
vs
UTAHUtah
133.0%
Kansas StKSU
vs
UTAHUtah
142.9%
Texas TechTTU
vs
UCFUCF
152.9%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
TTUTexas Tech

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIICCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big XII CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 42.9%
Game
Iowa StCCG OddsAway
Iowa StCCG OddsHome
BYUBYU@BaylorBAY
41.4%
(-1.5%)		44.9%
(+2.1%)
ColoradoCOLO@UCFUCF
44.5%
(+1.7%)		42.6%
(-0.3%)
CincinnatiCIN@Texas TechTTU
43.8%
(+1.0%)		42.4%
(-0.4%)
Iowa StISU@HoustonHOU
46.5%
(+3.6%)		22.6%
(-20.2%)
ArizonaARIZ@UtahUTAH
41.7%
(-1.1%)		43.9%
(+1.0%)
Oklahoma StOKST@Kansas StKSU
43.0%
(+0.2%)		42.8%
(-0.1%)
TCUTCU@KansasKU
42.2%
(-0.7%)		43.3%
(+0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for Iowa St

BaylorBaylorColoradoColoradoTexas TechTexas TechIowa StIowa StateUtahUtahOklahoma StOklahoma StateKansasKansas

CCG: 55.0% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Iowa St

Iowa StIowa State

CCG: 46.5% • Scenario: 84.8%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIICCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-4Overall
Iowa StISU100%99.2%74.2%12.5%<0.1%42.9%
ArizonaARIZ100%98.3%63.9%5.6%<0.1%28.6%
UCFUCF100%99.1%69.2%9.6%<0.1%27.9%
UtahUTAH100%99.0%66.2%5.7%-27.0%
Kansas StKSU-96.6%48.4%3.6%-19.3%
Texas TechTTU100%95.9%51.6%4.8%-19.3%
BYUBYU100%97.9%64.3%6.4%<0.1%16.4%
West VirginiaWVU100%98.8%75.4%18.3%<0.1%5.5%
Oklahoma StOKST-95.3%51.8%5.4%-3.7%
CincinnatiCIN100%97.2%56.6%4.6%-3.6%
KansasKU-96.7%53.2%3.1%-2.9%
TCUTCU-95.5%60.0%6.8%-1.5%
Arizona StASU-100%80.2%23.2%<0.1%0.7%
BaylorBAY-96.3%58.6%3.2%-0.4%
ColoradoCOLO-85.7%76.1%14.6%<0.1%0.2%
HoustonHOU--100%14.3%-<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIIFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
Iowa StISU(0-0)3.7%15.4%27.5%27.3%17.0%6.9%1.8%0.3%<0.1%0.0%6.3
ArizonaARIZ(0-0)2.0%10.3%23.3%29.2%21.7%10.1%2.9%0.4%<0.1%0.0%6.0
UtahUTAH(1-0)1.6%9.1%22.3%29.2%23.1%11.2%3.2%0.5%<0.1%-5.9
UCFUCF(1-0)1.3%8.6%22.0%29.7%23.4%11.3%3.2%0.5%<0.1%-5.9
Kansas StKSU(0-1)-6.9%23.7%32.7%23.6%10.1%2.6%0.4%<0.1%0.0%5.8
Texas TechTTU(1-0)0.9%6.8%20.0%30.1%25.1%12.7%3.7%0.6%<0.1%-5.7
BYUBYU(1-0)0.6%4.6%15.1%26.2%27.6%17.8%6.7%1.4%0.1%-5.4
Oklahoma StOKST(0-1)-0.6%4.5%14.8%26.3%27.8%17.7%6.8%1.4%0.1%4.4
CincinnatiCIN(1-0)<0.1%0.7%4.0%13.9%26.5%29.4%18.5%6.2%0.9%-4.4
KansasKU(0-1)-0.4%3.9%14.4%26.5%28.6%18.2%6.5%1.2%0.1%4.3
West VirginiaWVU(1-0)<0.1%0.6%3.6%11.6%23.2%29.0%21.6%8.8%1.5%-4.2
TCUTCU(0-1)-0.1%1.5%7.1%17.9%27.7%26.0%14.7%4.4%0.5%3.7
BaylorBAY(0-1)-<0.1%0.5%3.3%11.3%23.3%29.1%22.0%9.0%1.5%3.1
Arizona StASU(0-1)-<0.1%0.3%1.9%7.6%18.6%28.4%26.7%13.5%3.1%2.8
ColoradoCOLO(1-0)0.0%<0.1%0.1%0.9%4.4%14.9%30.0%33.7%15.9%-2.6
HoustonHOU(0-1)-0.0%0.0%0.1%0.8%4.8%15.3%30.5%33.1%15.4%1.6

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com