Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W22-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:53% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:72% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:77% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:41% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.6% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 9.1% | 99.0% |
| 7-2 | 22.3% | 66.2% |
| 6-3 | 29.2% | 5.7% |
| 5-4 | 23.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 11.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 26.7% (-0.2%) | 27.3% (+0.3%) | |
| 29.2% (+2.2%) | 26.6% (-0.3%) | |
| 27.7% (+0.8%) | 26.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 26.5% (-0.4%) | 29.4% (+2.5%) | |
| 13.6% (-13.4%) | 38.8% (+11.8%) | |
| 29.3% (+2.3%) | 26.1% (-0.8%) | |
| 27.9% (+0.9%) | 26.3% (-0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BYU
Colorado
Cincinnati
HoustonUtah
Oklahoma State
KansasCCG: 55.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 38.8% • Scenario: 53.0%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.6%Any 1 loss
99.0%
9.0%100.0%
0.5%
99.9%
0.7%
99.4%
2.2%99.4%
0.5%
99.3%
1.0%99.1%
0.9%
98.5%
1.4%
98.1%
1.9%Any 2 losses
66.2%
22.3%87.4%
0.2%86.8%
0.2%85.1%
0.4%84.8%
0.3%81.7%
0.1%81.3%
0.4%80.8%
0.4%80.6%
0.7%77.7%
0.3%77.3%
0.4%76.6%
0.7%76.3%
0.9%74.1%
1.6%73.7%
0.6%71.2%
0.3%71.2%
0.6%69.4%
0.9%68.9%
0.5%66.3%
0.6%66.2%
0.8%65.8%
0.4%65.1%
1.3%61.8%
2.1%61.6%
0.9%61.4%
1.3%54.4%
2.7%54.2%
1.1%49.4%
1.7%Any 3 losses
5.7%
29.2%21.2%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%17.0%
0.1%16.1%
0.1%12.2%
0.2%12.0%
<0.1%11.5%
0.3%11.4%
0.4%11.1%
0.2%10.4%
0.3%10.2%
0.1%9.8%
0.6%9.8%
0.4%9.3%
0.1%8.7%
0.2%8.6%
0.2%8.6%
0.3%8.3%
0.3%8.1%
0.1%8.1%
0.6%7.9%
0.2%7.9%
0.8%7.8%
0.3%7.7%
0.1%7.5%
0.3%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
0.4%6.9%
0.4%6.9%
0.4%6.9%
0.4%6.6%
0.8%6.5%
0.2%6.2%
0.2%6.1%
0.4%6.1%
0.5%5.7%
0.3%5.6%
0.6%5.6%
0.3%5.6%
0.4%5.4%
0.5%5.2%
0.6%5.1%
1.1%4.8%
0.9%4.7%
0.6%4.6%
1.1%4.5%
1.4%4.3%
0.7%4.2%
1.0%4.0%
0.8%3.7%
0.4%3.6%
1.1%3.5%
1.6%3.5%
1.0%3.3%
2.5%2.9%
0.5%2.6%
1.8%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22