Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-16 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-0 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:29% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:28% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:61% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:65% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:55% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:20% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:20% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.7% | 97.2% |
| 7-2 | 4.0% | 56.6% |
| 6-3 | 13.9% | 4.6% |
| 5-4 | 26.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 18.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4% (-0.2%) | 3.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 4.1% (+0.5%) | 3.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.2% (+4.6%) | 1.7% (-1.9%) | |
| 3.5% (-0.1%) | 4.1% (+0.5%) | |
| 3.5% (-0.1%) | 3.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.7% (+0.1%) | 3.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.7% (+0.1%) | 3.5% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Baylor
ColoradoCincinnati
Houston
Utah
Oklahoma State
KansasCCG: 22.2% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiCCG: 8.2% • Scenario: 29.0%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.2%
0.6%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.7%
0.2%
97.4%
0.1%
97.1%
<0.1%
93.0%
0.1%Any 2 losses
56.6%
4.0%84.2%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
0.1%70.6%
0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%66.3%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.8%
0.4%65.1%
<0.1%62.0%
0.1%60.5%
<0.1%59.5%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.1%
0.3%55.1%
0.4%53.1%
0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.0%
0.1%51.9%
0.7%50.6%
0.4%49.3%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.7%
0.4%Any 3 losses
4.6%
13.8%20.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.3%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.3%6.9%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.3%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.4%
1.0%5.3%
0.5%5.3%
0.3%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.3%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.2%4.3%
0.4%4.3%
1.6%4.3%
0.4%4.1%
0.4%4.1%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
1.8%3.4%
0.3%3.4%
1.0%3.3%
0.5%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.4%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.2%
0.3%0.7%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22