Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W57-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W35-34 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:87% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:60% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:72% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:32% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:64% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:54% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 8.6% | 99.1% |
| 7-2 | 22.0% | 69.2% |
| 6-3 | 29.7% | 9.6% |
| 5-4 | 23.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 11.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 27.6% (-0.4%) | 28.4% (+0.5%) | |
| 12.7% (-15.2%) | 30.2% (+2.3%) | |
| 29.8% (+1.9%) | 27.2% (-0.8%) | |
| 27.5% (-0.5%) | 30.5% (+2.6%) | |
| 27.6% (-0.4%) | 28.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 29.4% (+1.5%) | 27.4% (-0.5%) | |
| 28.8% (+0.9%) | 27.3% (-0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BaylorUCF
Cincinnati
Houston
Arizona
Kansas State
TCUCCG: 41.9% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCFCCG: 30.2% • Scenario: 86.8%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.8%Any 1 loss
99.2%
5.7%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
0.1%
99.6%
0.5%
99.3%
0.6%99.2%
0.7%99.0%
0.3%
98.9%
0.7%
98.5%
1.8%Any 2 losses
75.3%
16.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%99.8%
0.4%99.5%
0.4%99.4%
0.5%99.4%
0.3%98.1%
1.2%87.3%
<0.1%85.3%
0.3%84.8%
0.2%83.7%
0.2%81.5%
0.1%80.6%
0.1%79.7%
0.4%79.0%
0.4%78.7%
0.2%78.2%
0.3%77.0%
0.3%76.8%
0.4%76.1%
<0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.5%
0.4%72.6%
0.4%71.1%
0.3%71.1%
1.1%70.3%
0.6%70.0%
0.7%68.1%
0.5%67.4%
0.3%65.5%
0.4%65.4%
1.4%63.3%
1.0%59.5%
1.3%57.8%
1.5%Any 3 losses
29.4%
26.5%85.7%
0.2%85.0%
0.1%83.3%
0.3%83.3%
<0.1%80.9%
0.1%80.9%
<0.1%80.6%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%79.6%
0.2%79.4%
0.2%78.6%
0.3%78.1%
<0.1%77.5%
0.1%77.4%
<0.1%75.2%
0.3%75.2%
0.3%75.1%
0.4%73.9%
0.5%71.5%
0.3%70.1%
0.2%68.3%
0.2%68.1%
0.8%67.3%
0.3%66.3%
0.9%62.6%
0.3%62.5%
0.7%60.6%
0.8%59.1%
1.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%19.2%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.1%
0.2%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
0.1%15.4%
0.2%14.9%
<0.1%14.6%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.2%
0.3%13.0%
0.4%12.9%
0.3%12.6%
0.2%12.6%
0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.4%
0.2%12.3%
0.2%12.3%
0.1%12.2%
0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
0.2%12.0%
0.1%11.5%
0.2%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
0.4%11.1%
0.5%11.0%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
0.5%10.5%
0.4%10.2%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.4%
0.3%9.2%
0.3%8.6%
0.3%8.5%
0.6%8.4%
0.6%8.2%
0.8%8.2%
0.3%8.1%
0.2%8.0%
1.0%7.9%
0.2%7.6%
0.7%7.6%
0.9%7.5%
0.8%7.4%
1.0%7.4%
0.9%7.1%
1.1%6.7%
1.2%Any 4 losses
9.0%
12.5%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.3%
0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.9%
0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.9%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
0.3%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.2%11.3%
0.3%11.2%
0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.9%
0.2%10.8%
0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.1%
0.3%10.1%
0.3%10.1%
0.4%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.2%9.4%
0.2%9.2%
0.5%9.2%
0.6%9.1%
0.4%9.0%
0.6%9.0%
0.2%8.9%
0.2%8.8%
0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.4%
0.3%8.3%
0.1%8.3%
0.1%7.6%
0.4%7.6%
0.6%7.2%
0.5%7.2%
0.7%7.1%
0.5%7.1%
0.8%6.9%
0.6%6.5%
0.2%5.8%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22