TCUHorned Frogs

2-2 T8th (0-1) in B12

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@StanfordSTAN	W34-27
2	9/07	vsLong Island UniversityLIU	W45-0
3	9/14	vsUCFUCF	L34-35
4	9/21	@SMUSMU	L42-66
5	9/28	vsKansasKU(N)	Win prob:40%
6	10/04	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:78%
8	10/19	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:28%
9	10/26	vsTexas TechTTU	Win prob:44%
10	11/02	@BaylorBAY	Win prob:48%
11	11/09	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:49%
13	11/23	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:38%
14	11/30	@CincinnatiCIN	Win prob:42%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	0.1%	95.5%
7-2	1.5%	60.0%
6-3	7.1%	6.8%
5-4	17.9%	0%
4-5	27.7%	0%
3-6	26.0%	0%
2-7	14.7%	0%
1-8	4.4%	0%
0-9	0.5%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

30.6%

27.4%

16.1%

15.3%

10.5%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BYUBYU@BaylorBAY	1.4% (-0.2%)	1.8% (+0.2%)
ColoradoCOLO@UCFUCF	1.7% (+0.2%)	1.5% (-0.0%)
CincinnatiCIN@Texas TechTTU	1.5% (+0.0%)	1.5% (-0.0%)
Iowa StateISU@HoustonHOU	1.4% (-0.1%)	2.0% (+0.5%)
ArizonaARIZ@UtahUTAH	1.4% (-0.1%)	1.6% (+0.1%)
Oklahoma StateOKST@Kansas StateKSU	1.9% (+0.3%)	1.4% (-0.1%)
TCUTCU@KansasKU	3.0% (+1.5%)	0.5% (-1.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

BYU

Colorado

Cincinnati

Houston

Arizona

Oklahoma State

TCU

CCG: 18.2% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

TCU

CCG: 3.0% • Scenario: 40.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

95.5%

0.1%

Any 1 loss

59.9%

1.5%

74.3%

<0.1%

72.8%

0.2%

68.2%

0.2%

64.4%

0.2%

58.4%

0.2%

57.9%

0.1%

53.2%

0.4%

48.4%

0.2%

Any 2 losses

6.7%

7.1%

14.9%

<0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

10.7%

0.2%

10.7%

0.2%

9.5%

0.2%

9.4%

0.3%

9.2%

0.2%

8.9%

0.2%

8.5%

0.3%

8.4%

0.2%

8.2%

0.4%

8.0%

<0.1%

7.9%

0.3%

7.8%

<0.1%

7.3%

0.4%

7.2%

0.3%

7.1%

0.2%

6.7%

0.3%

6.3%

0.2%

6.3%

0.6%

6.1%

0.3%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.9%

0.4%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.3%

0.4%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.0%

0.6%

2.1%

0.5%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com