ArizonaWildcats

2-1 T8th (0-0) in B12

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

28.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsNew MexicoUNM	W61-39
2	9/07	vsNorthern ArizonaNAU	W22-10
3	9/13	@Kansas StateKSU	L7-31
5	9/28	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:47%
6	10/05	vsTexas TechTTU	Win prob:63%
7	10/12	@BYUBYU	Win prob:52%
8	10/19	vsColoradoCOLO	Win prob:89%
9	10/26	vsWest VirginiaWVU	Win prob:73%
10	11/02	@UCFUCF	Win prob:46%
12	11/15	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:89%
13	11/23	@TCUTCU	Win prob:62%
14	11/30	vsArizona StateASU	Win prob:78%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	2.0%	100.0%
8-1	10.3%	98.3%
7-2	23.3%	63.9%
6-3	29.2%	5.6%
5-4	21.7%	0.0%
4-5	10.1%	0%
3-6	2.9%	0%
2-7	0.4%	0%
1-8	0.0%	0%
0-9	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

36.9%

18.9%

18.0%

13.9%

12.3%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BYUBYU@BaylorBAY	28.1% (-0.6%)	29.5% (+0.8%)
ColoradoCOLO@UCFUCF	30.8% (+2.1%)	28.3% (-0.3%)
CincinnatiCIN@Texas TechTTU	28.7% (+0.1%)	28.6% (-0.0%)
Iowa StateISU@HoustonHOU	28.0% (-0.7%)	32.3% (+3.6%)
ArizonaARIZ@UtahUTAH	42.9% (+14.3%)	16.0% (-12.6%)
Oklahoma StateOKST@Kansas StateKSU	29.5% (+0.8%)	28.3% (-0.3%)
TCUTCU@KansasKU	29.0% (+0.3%)	28.4% (-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

Baylor

Colorado

Cincinnati

Houston

Arizona

Kansas State

TCU

CCG: 62.5% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Arizona

CCG: 42.9% • Scenario: 46.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

2.0%

Any 1 loss

98.3%

10.3%

100.0%

0.3%

99.7%

1.2%

99.6%

0.2%

99.6%

0.7%

99.3%

0.6%

98.4%

1.8%

98.2%

2.2%

97.7%

1.1%

97.1%

2.1%

Any 2 losses

63.9%

23.3%

86.8%

0.4%

86.5%

0.1%

85.9%

<0.1%

85.7%

0.1%

81.7%

0.4%

78.1%

<0.1%

77.5%

0.1%

75.0%

1.1%

74.1%

0.2%

73.6%

0.2%

73.2%

0.1%

72.0%

0.3%

72.0%

<0.1%

71.7%

1.4%

71.5%

0.7%

70.9%

0.1%

70.8%

0.3%

70.5%

1.4%

70.5%

0.3%

70.0%

0.6%

69.6%

<0.1%

69.5%

0.3%

69.1%

0.2%

67.2%

0.7%

65.6%

0.8%

65.1%

0.3%

65.0%

0.5%

60.5%

0.7%

59.2%

0.8%

58.7%

1.3%

57.9%

1.3%

57.7%

1.1%

57.1%

0.4%

57.0%

2.1%

56.1%

2.1%

53.3%

2.5%

Any 3 losses

5.6%

29.2%

21.4%

<0.1%

17.0%

0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.7%

<0.1%

12.8%

<0.1%

12.7%

<0.1%

12.7%

0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.3%

<0.1%

12.2%

<0.1%

11.8%

0.1%

11.4%

0.3%

11.4%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.6%

<0.1%

10.5%

<0.1%

10.3%

<0.1%

10.2%

0.2%

9.3%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.8%

<0.1%

8.8%

0.1%

8.8%

<0.1%

8.6%

0.2%

8.0%

0.2%

8.0%

<0.1%

8.0%

0.3%

7.9%

0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.6%

0.2%

7.5%

1.4%

7.5%

1.3%

7.5%

0.2%

7.4%

<0.1%

7.3%

0.4%

7.3%

0.4%

7.3%

0.1%

7.1%

0.1%

7.1%

0.2%

7.0%

0.2%

7.0%

<0.1%

7.0%

0.6%

6.9%

0.2%

6.9%

0.3%

6.6%

0.3%

6.5%

0.4%

6.4%

0.4%

6.4%

1.6%

6.3%

0.5%

6.3%

<0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

6.1%

0.1%

5.9%

0.2%

5.7%

0.3%

5.5%

0.8%

5.4%

0.3%

5.3%

0.8%

5.1%

0.1%

5.0%

0.4%

4.9%

0.1%

4.8%

0.3%

4.8%

0.3%

4.8%

0.8%

4.7%

0.4%

4.6%

2.4%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.5%

0.6%

4.3%

1.2%

4.2%

1.5%

3.8%

0.3%

3.6%

0.8%

3.6%

1.0%

3.4%

0.7%

3.1%

1.3%

3.1%

0.5%

2.9%

0.1%

2.7%

0.1%

2.3%

0.2%

2.2%

0.7%

2.1%

0.4%

1.8%

0.5%

1.3%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com