Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L19-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:6% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:38% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:70% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:68% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:33% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 99.2% |
| 8-1 | 2.5% | 49.5% |
| 7-2 | 12.3% | 4.1% |
| 6-3 | 26.7% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 30.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8% (+0.9%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.7%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.1% (+0.2%) | 1.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.0%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.0%) | 2.3% (+0.5%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.8% (+0.9%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.0%) | 1.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.0%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Illinois
Wisconsin
Indiana
Purdue
RutgersCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisCCG: 2.6% • Scenario: 8.8%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.2%
0.1%Any 1 loss
49.4%
2.5%
89.5%
<0.1%
86.7%
<0.1%
85.1%
<0.1%
81.9%
<0.1%
80.2%
0.2%74.6%
<0.1%
63.0%
0.2%
38.6%
1.8%Any 2 losses
5.2%
9.5%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.4%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.0%
0.1%17.0%
0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.4%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%7.5%
0.1%6.4%
0.4%5.8%
<0.1%5.5%
1.0%5.4%
0.7%5.0%
<0.1%4.7%
0.7%4.3%
<0.1%3.4%
0.9%2.8%
0.9%1.9%
3.8%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22