Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W27-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L24-27 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:83% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:77% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:39% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:52% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:85% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:43% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:82% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:27% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 3.1% | 62.8% |
| 7-2 | 15.6% | 6.8% |
| 6-3 | 30.2% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 15.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5% (+1.4%) | 2.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.2% (+0.2%) | 3.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-2.6%) | 3.6% (+0.5%) | |
| 3.2% (+0.1%) | 2.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 3.0% (-0.1%) | 4.6% (+1.5%) | |
| 2.9% (-0.1%) | 4.9% (+1.9%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.1%) | 2.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 2.9% (-0.1%) | 3.4% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan State
PurdueCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 3.6% • Scenario: 82.8%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
60.9%
0.8%Any 1 loss
27.2%
6.4%
63.4%
2.3%
14.7%
0.2%11.4%
0.3%
9.5%
0.2%
9.4%
0.2%
8.7%
0.1%8.3%
0.8%
4.9%
1.1%
4.0%
1.3%Any 2 losses
6.8%
11.5%16.6%
0.4%12.2%
0.5%10.2%
0.6%10.2%
0.5%8.9%
0.5%8.7%
2.1%5.0%
3.7%4.0%
3.2%4.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
0.8%
0.7%1.3%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22