American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-29
Conference Standings
| T1 |  ArmyARMY | 3-0 | 4-0 | 51.4% | |
| T1 |  NavyNAVY | 3-0 | 4-0 | 38.6% | |
| T1 |  TulaneTULN | 1-0 | 3-2 | 58.7% | |
| T1 |  East CarolinaECU | 1-0 | 3-2 | 16.8% | |
| T1 |  North TexasUNT | 1-0 | 4-1 | 13.1% | |
| T1 |  CharlotteCLT | 1-0 | 2-3 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  MemphisMEM | 0-1 | 4-1 | 18.2% | |
| T7 |  UTSAUTSA | 0-1 | 2-3 | 1.4% | |
| T7 |  South FloridaUSF | 0-1 | 2-3 | 1.0% | |
| T7 |  Florida AtlanticFAU | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0.6% | |
| T7 |  UABUAB | 0-1 | 1-3 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  TulsaTLSA | 0-1 | 2-3 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  RiceRICE | 0-2 | 1-4 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  TempleTEM | 0-2 | 1-4 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 58.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 62.0% (+3.3%) | 30.9% (-27.8%) | |
| 57.6% (-1.1%) | 63.3% (+4.5%) | |
| 58.6% (-0.2%) | 58.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 58.7% (-0.0%) | 58.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 58.0% (-0.8%) | 64.5% (+5.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TulaneCharlotteTemple
Air ForceTulsaCCG: 76.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 62.0% • Scenario: 89.5%
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-3 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TulaneTULN | - | - | 100% | - | 84.1% | - | 9.6% | - | - | 58.7% |
| ArmyARMY | 100% | 75.0% | - | 37.4% | - | 3.5% | - | - | - | 51.4% |
| NavyNAVY | 100% | 88.3% | - | 49.1% | - | 8.3% | - | - | <0.1% | 38.6% |
| MemphisMEM | - | - | - | - | 89.7% | - | 17.9% | 0.1% | - | 18.2% |
| East CarolinaECU | - | - | 100% | - | 85.4% | - | 12.3% | <0.1% | - | 16.8% |
| North TexasUNT | - | - | 100% | - | 97.6% | - | 31.1% | 0.1% | - | 13.1% |
| UTSAUTSA | - | - | - | - | 84.2% | - | 9.5% | - | - | 1.4% |
| South FloridaUSF | - | - | - | - | 72.5% | - | 6.1% | <0.1% | - | 1.0% |
| Florida AtlanticFAU | - | - | - | - | 61.7% | - | 6.2% | <0.1% | - | 0.6% |
| CharlotteCLT | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | 21.6% | 0.3% | - | <0.1% |
| UABUAB | - | - | - | - | 87.5% | - | 27.1% | <0.1% | - | <0.1% |
| TulsaTLSA | - | - | - | - | 88.9% | - | 9.5% | - | - | <0.1% |
| RiceRICE | - | - | - | - | - | - | 66.7% | 1.4% | - | <0.1% |
| TempleTEM | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.2% | - | - |
Data from 2024-09-29
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-3 | 6-2 | 5-4 | 5-3 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmyARMY(3-0) | 13.0% | 34.0% | 0.0% | 33.2% | 0.0% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | - | 7.4 |
| TulaneTULN(1-0) | - | 0.0% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 40.1% | 0.0% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 6.7 |
| NavyNAVY(3-0) | 3.6% | 18.1% | 0.0% | 33.9% | 0.0% | 29.6% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | - | 6.6 |
| MemphisMEM(0-1) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 37.9% | 0.0% | 33.5% | 0.0% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.4 |
| East CarolinaECU(1-0) | - | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% | 30.4% | 0.0% | 32.5% | 0.0% | 17.0% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 0.5% | <0.1% | - | 5.3 |
| North TexasUNT(1-0) | - | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 31.3% | 0.0% | 26.5% | 0.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 0.3% | - | 4.7 |
| UTSAUTSA(0-1) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 22.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 25.1% | 9.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 3.9 |
| South FloridaUSF(0-1) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 21.8% | 0.0% | 32.6% | 0.0% | 25.2% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 3.8 |
| Florida AtlanticFAU(0-1) | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 29.8% | 0.0% | 29.3% | 15.0% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 3.6 |
| UABUAB(0-1) | - | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 31.7% | 34.0% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 2.4 |
| CharlotteCLT(1-0) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 28.4% | 39.3% | 20.3% | - | 2.3 |
| TulsaTLSA(0-1) | - | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 19.3% | 33.1% | 29.2% | 10.5% | 1.9 |
| RiceRICE(0-2) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 13.9% | 32.7% | 35.7% | 14.7% | 1.5 |
| TempleTEM(0-2) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 28.4% | 42.3% | 20.1% | 1.3 |
Data from 2024-09-29