ArmyBlack Knights

4-0 T1st (3-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

51.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsLehighLEH	W42-7
2	9/07	@Florida AtlanticFAU	W24-7
4	9/21	vsRiceRICE	W37-14
5	9/26	@TempleTEM	W42-14
6	10/05	@TulsaTLSA	Win prob:88%
7	10/12	vsUABUAB	Win prob:89%
8	10/19	vsEast CarolinaECU	Win prob:72%
10	11/02	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:73%
11	11/09	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:52%
13	11/23	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:7%
14	11/30	vsUTSAUTSA	Win prob:78%
	12/14	vsNavyNAVY(N)	Win prob:56%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	13.0%	100.0%
8-1	34.0%	75.0%
7-2	33.2%	37.4%
6-3	15.7%	3.5%
5-4	3.7%	0%
4-5	0.4%	0%
3-6	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

51.2%

24.9%

9.3%

8.6%

6.1%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TulaneTULN@UABUAB	50.4% (-1.0%)	60.3% (+8.8%)
East CarolinaECU@CharlotteCLT	51.1% (-0.3%)	52.8% (+1.3%)
TempleTEM@UConnCONN	52.2% (+0.8%)	51.3% (-0.1%)
NavyNAVY@Air ForceAF	51.4% (-0.0%)	51.5% (+0.0%)
ArmyARMY@TulsaTLSA	55.3% (+3.9%)	22.3% (-29.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

UAB

East Carolina

Temple

Navy

Army

CCG: 67.8% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Army

CCG: 55.3% • Scenario: 88.2%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.6%

Any 1 loss

96.4%

10.8%

100.0%

8.9%

100.0%

0.5%

100.0%

0.3%

76.7%

0.2%

75.6%

<0.1%

73.4%

<0.1%

68.4%

0.6%

54.9%

0.3%

Any 2 losses

75.8%

28.6%

100.0%

6.9%

100.0%

3.2%

100.0%

0.2%

79.6%

<0.1%

72.9%

1.2%

71.0%

2.5%

70.0%

<0.1%

69.7%

<0.1%

69.6%

1.1%

68.1%

0.1%

67.4%

0.5%

65.6%

0.2%

65.5%

<0.1%

65.2%

8.1%

62.8%

<0.1%

56.5%

<0.1%

54.3%

3.4%

47.6%

0.2%

26.9%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.0%

<0.1%

7.5%

0.2%

6.3%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

47.0%

32.0%

100.0%

2.5%

73.7%

<0.1%

72.3%

0.9%

71.5%

0.8%

71.2%

<0.1%

70.1%

1.9%

69.7%

0.4%

69.2%

0.9%

68.9%

0.4%

64.4%

6.1%

64.3%

<0.1%

63.7%

0.2%

63.0%

3.0%

54.7%

2.6%

54.6%

1.3%

50.0%

<0.1%

44.1%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.2%

0.1%

13.8%

<0.1%

11.4%

0.3%

10.5%

0.3%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.9%

1.0%

7.7%

<0.1%

6.7%

1.0%

5.5%

2.4%

5.0%

0.4%

4.6%

<0.1%

4.4%

0.5%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.3%

0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.6%

0.9%

1.7%

3.1%

1.4%

0.1%

Any 4 losses

21.3%

16.6%

71.4%

0.3%

70.1%

0.4%

67.8%

0.7%

62.7%

2.4%

54.0%

0.9%

28.6%

<0.1%

18.2%

0.1%

15.9%

<0.1%

15.0%

<0.1%

14.2%

0.3%

13.0%

0.3%

9.5%

<0.1%

8.2%

0.4%

7.7%

0.1%

7.7%

0.1%

7.5%

0.8%

6.2%

0.4%

6.0%

0.8%

5.8%

0.2%

5.8%

0.9%

5.3%

0.4%

4.9%

1.8%

4.5%

<0.1%

3.3%

0.4%

3.1%

0.3%

2.7%

0.1%

2.6%

0.8%

2.0%

2.4%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.1%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com