Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L7-30 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L20-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-26 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L14-52 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W21-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:20% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:8% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:5% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:6% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:29% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:22% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:44% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 21.6% |
| 5-3 | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 10.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 39.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 20.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UABCharlotte
UConn
Air Force
TulsaCCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CharlotteCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 20.0%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29