Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-29
Conference Standings
| T1 |  ClemsonCLEM | 2-0 | 3-1 | 55.3% | |
| T1 |  MiamiMIA | 1-0 | 5-0 | 57.3% | |
| T1 |  SMUSMU | 1-0 | 4-1 | 41.7% | |
| T1 |  LouisvilleLOU | 1-0 | 3-1 | 27.8% | |
| T1 |  DukeDUKE | 1-0 | 5-0 | 7.9% | |
| T1 |  Boston CollegeBC | 1-0 | 4-1 | 1.7% | |
| T1 |  VirginiaUVA | 1-0 | 3-1 | 0.2% | |
| T8 |  SyracuseSYR | 1-1 | 3-1 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  StanfordSTAN | 1-1 | 2-2 | <0.1% | |
| 10 |  Georgia TechGT | 1-2 | 3-2 | 0.1% | |
| 11 |  Florida StateFSU | 1-3 | 1-4 | - | |
| T12 |  Virginia TechVT | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4.7% | |
| T12 |  North CarolinaUNC | 0-1 | 3-2 | 1.0% | |
| T12 |  PittsburghPITT | 0-0 | 4-0 | 0.9% | |
| T12 |  NC StateNCSU | 0-1 | 3-2 | 0.6% | |
| T12 |  CaliforniaCAL | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0.6% | |
| T12 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 0-1 | 1-3 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 57.3%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 53.5% (-3.8%) | 60.8% (+3.5%) | |
| 58.6% (+1.3%) | 56.8% (-0.5%) | |
| 57.3% (+0.0%) | 57.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 56.2% (-1.1%) | 58.6% (+1.3%) | |
| 55.0% (-2.3%) | 65.0% (+7.7%) | |
| 56.6% (-0.7%) | 57.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 57.5% (+0.2%) | 56.1% (-1.2%) | |
| 57.1% (-0.2%) | 57.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 63.1% (+5.8%) | 33.9% (-23.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LouisvilleWake ForestFlorida StatePittsburghStanfordSyracuseCaliforniaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MiamiCCG: 63.1% • Scenario: 80.2%
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiamiMIA | 99.3% | 75.5% | 15.5% | 0.1% | 57.3% |
| ClemsonCLEM | 98.2% | 70.3% | 9.4% | <0.1% | 55.3% |
| SMUSMU | 98.9% | 67.8% | 10.4% | <0.1% | 41.7% |
| LouisvilleLOU | 100% | 98.5% | 24.1% | 0.2% | 27.8% |
| DukeDUKE | 100% | 79.7% | 12.3% | <0.1% | 7.9% |
| Virginia TechVT | - | 80.8% | 10.5% | <0.1% | 4.7% |
| Boston CollegeBC | 98.8% | 70.7% | 9.6% | <0.1% | 1.7% |
| North CarolinaUNC | - | 38.8% | 2.4% | - | 1.0% |
| PittsburghPITT | 100% | 87.1% | 19.3% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| NC StateNCSU | - | 52.9% | 3.7% | <0.1% | 0.6% |
| CaliforniaCAL | - | 75.5% | 5.0% | - | 0.6% |
| VirginiaUVA | - | 91.4% | 24.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Georgia TechGT | - | - | 12.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| SyracuseSYR | - | 50.0% | 8.7% | - | <0.1% |
| StanfordSTAN | - | 50.0% | 18.8% | - | <0.1% |
| Wake ForestWAKE | - | 100% | 14.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida StateFSU | - | - | - | 0.7% | - |
Data from 2024-09-29
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ClemsonCLEM(2-0) | 25.0% | 40.3% | 25.4% | 7.9% | 1.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | 6.8 |
| MiamiMIA(1-0) | 23.2% | 39.9% | 26.4% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 6.7 |
| SMUSMU(1-0) | 14.1% | 35.9% | 32.5% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.4 |
| LouisvilleLOU(1-0) | 3.1% | 16.9% | 33.2% | 30.0% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | 5.6 |
| DukeDUKE(1-0) | 0.7% | 6.0% | 19.7% | 31.3% | 26.4% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 0.3% | - | 4.7 |
| Virginia TechVT(0-1) | - | 3.5% | 17.7% | 32.9% | 28.9% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| North CarolinaUNC(0-1) | - | 2.0% | 10.7% | 24.4% | 30.0% | 21.7% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 4.1 |
| Boston CollegeBC(1-0) | <0.1% | 1.3% | 7.5% | 21.6% | 32.2% | 25.6% | 10.1% | 1.5% | - | 3.9 |
| CaliforniaCAL(0-1) | - | 0.5% | 5.4% | 20.7% | 33.9% | 26.8% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 3.8 |
| NC StateNCSU(0-1) | - | 0.8% | 5.9% | 19.1% | 31.2% | 27.3% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 0.2% | 3.7 |
| PittsburghPITT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 11.9% | 26.0% | 31.3% | 20.3% | 6.6% | 0.7% | 3.2 |
| Georgia TechGT(1-2) | - | - | 0.9% | 8.2% | 25.7% | 36.6% | 23.2% | 5.3% | - | 3.1 |
| VirginiaUVA(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.4% | 16.3% | 32.6% | 32.9% | 13.0% | - | 2.7 |
| SyracuseSYR(1-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 12.1% | 29.3% | 36.7% | 18.9% | - | 2.4 |
| Florida StateFSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.5% | 7.3% | 30.1% | 44.0% | 18.0% | - | 2.3 |
| StanfordSTAN(1-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 6.6% | 24.1% | 42.6% | 25.7% | - | 2.1 |
| Wake ForestWAKE(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 5.6% | 18.8% | 33.9% | 30.4% | 10.2% | 1.8 |
Data from 2024-09-29