LouisvilleCardinals

3-1 T1st (1-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsAustin PeayAPSU	W62-0
2	9/07	vsJacksonville StateJXST	W49-14
4	9/21	vsGeorgia TechGT	W31-19
5	9/28	@Notre DameND	L24-31
6	10/05	vsSMUSMU	Win prob:52%
7	10/12	@VirginiaUVA	Win prob:83%
8	10/19	vsMiamiMIA	Win prob:41%
9	10/25	@Boston CollegeBC	Win prob:75%
10	11/02	@ClemsonCLEM	Win prob:31%
12	11/16	@StanfordSTAN	Win prob:90%
13	11/23	vsPittsburghPITT	Win prob:84%
14	11/30	@KentuckyUK	Win prob:47%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	3.1%	100.0%
7-1	16.9%	98.5%
6-2	33.2%	24.1%
5-3	30.0%	0.2%
4-4	13.5%	0%
3-5	2.9%	0%
2-6	0.4%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

36.6%

35.1%

22.0%

4.2%

2.1%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU	11.5% (-16.3%)	42.5% (+14.7%)
Wake ForestWAKE@NC StateNCSU	27.4% (-0.4%)	28.0% (+0.2%)
Boston CollegeBC@VirginiaUVA	27.9% (+0.1%)	27.7% (-0.1%)
DukeDUKE@Georgia TechGT	26.9% (-1.0%)	28.9% (+1.1%)
ClemsonCLEM@Florida StateFSU	26.8% (-1.0%)	31.2% (+3.3%)
PittsburghPITT@North CarolinaUNC	28.5% (+0.7%)	27.4% (-0.4%)
Virginia TechVT@StanfordSTAN	27.5% (-0.4%)	29.6% (+1.8%)
SyracuseSYR@UNLVUNLV	27.5% (-0.3%)	27.9% (+0.0%)
MiamiMIA@CaliforniaCAL	26.8% (-1.0%)	31.9% (+4.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Louisville

Wake Forest

Virginia

Duke

Florida State

Stanford

Syracuse

California

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Louisville

CCG: 42.5% • Scenario: 52.6%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.4%

Any 1 loss

98.7%

9.5%

100.0%

1.7%

99.2%

0.5%

98.9%

0.3%

98.7%

3.3%

98.3%

0.3%

98.3%

2.1%

98.0%

1.3%

97.6%

0.2%

Any 2 losses

51.6%

24.7%

99.7%

0.3%

98.9%

0.5%

98.8%

2.4%

98.7%

1.5%

98.3%

3.8%

98.0%

0.4%

97.9%

0.2%

53.3%

<0.1%

53.1%

<0.1%

52.9%

<0.1%

51.8%

0.1%

46.0%

<0.1%

40.6%

0.1%

37.8%

0.4%

37.5%

1.1%

37.1%

0.4%

37.0%

0.4%

35.9%

0.6%

35.5%

0.7%

34.6%

0.7%

33.3%

0.1%

33.3%

0.4%

32.4%

0.3%

32.0%

0.2%

29.1%

0.3%

18.2%

3.0%

16.6%

1.8%

15.7%

4.7%

Any 3 losses

22.5%

18.8%

56.7%

0.1%

56.7%

<0.1%

56.5%

<0.1%

54.9%

<0.1%

52.8%

0.1%

41.4%

<0.1%

38.8%

0.4%

38.1%

0.3%

37.2%

0.5%

36.8%

0.7%

36.3%

0.2%

34.7%

0.3%

34.0%

0.4%

33.6%

1.2%

33.4%

0.8%

32.3%

0.7%

31.7%

0.5%

31.4%

0.3%

18.3%

3.4%

17.3%

2.1%

15.5%

5.3%

10.0%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.2%

0.9%

0.2%

0.8%

0.1%

0.5%

0.4%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com