Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-30 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L13-27 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W43-24 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:46% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:17% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:6% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:39% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:29% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:2% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:14% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 91.4% |
| 6-2 | 0.7% | 24.8% |
| 5-3 | 4.4% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 16.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 32.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 13.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.2%) | 0.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisville
NC StateVirginia
Duke
Florida State
Pittsburgh
Virginia Tech
Syracuse
CaliforniaCCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
VirginiaCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 46.0%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 2 losses
80.2%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
90.9%
<0.1%
84.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
25.6%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
0.1%10.6%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29