DukeBlue Devils

5-0 T1st (1-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

7.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsElonELON	W26-3
2	9/06	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	W26-20
3	9/14	vsUConnCONN	W26-21
4	9/21	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	W45-17
5	9/28	vsNorth CarolinaUNC	W21-20
6	10/05	@Georgia TechGT	Win prob:53%
8	10/18	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:68%
9	10/26	vsSMUSMU	Win prob:39%
10	11/02	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:18%
11	11/09	@NC StateNCSU	Win prob:61%
13	11/23	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:58%
14	11/30	@Wake ForestWAKE	Win prob:75%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.7%	100.0%
7-1	6.0%	79.7%
6-2	19.7%	12.3%
5-3	31.3%	0.1%
4-4	26.4%	0%
3-5	12.4%	0%
2-6	3.2%	0%
1-7	0.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

33.7%

30.3%

19.9%

14.6%

1.4%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU	8.3% (+0.4%)	7.6% (-0.3%)
Wake ForestWAKE@NC StateNCSU	7.7% (-0.2%)	8.0% (+0.1%)
Boston CollegeBC@VirginiaUVA	7.9% (+0.0%)	7.9% (+0.0%)
DukeDUKE@Georgia TechGT	12.2% (+4.3%)	3.0% (-4.9%)
ClemsonCLEM@Florida StateFSU	7.0% (-0.9%)	10.8% (+2.9%)
PittsburghPITT@North CarolinaUNC	7.5% (-0.4%)	8.1% (+0.2%)
Virginia TechVT@StanfordSTAN	7.9% (+0.0%)	7.7% (-0.1%)
SyracuseSYR@UNLVUNLV	7.9% (+0.0%)	7.9% (+0.0%)
MiamiMIA@CaliforniaCAL	7.5% (-0.4%)	9.4% (+1.5%)

Best Winner Combination for

SMU

Wake Forest

Boston College

Duke

Florida State

Pittsburgh

Syracuse

California

CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Duke

CCG: 12.2% • Scenario: 53.1%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.7%

Any 1 loss

79.6%

6.0%

95.5%

0.6%

90.4%

0.4%

89.2%

0.2%

85.1%

0.4%

80.0%

0.3%

76.3%

1.0%

74.7%

3.1%

Any 2 losses

12.3%

19.7%

35.3%

0.2%

31.6%

0.4%

31.3%

0.2%

26.4%

0.2%

26.3%

0.3%

25.7%

0.1%

23.8%

0.3%

22.2%

0.1%

21.6%

0.2%

19.1%

0.4%

15.9%

0.7%

15.6%

1.9%

14.7%

2.7%

14.6%

1.0%

12.9%

0.9%

12.9%

0.4%

11.6%

0.5%

10.9%

2.2%

8.8%

1.5%

8.8%

0.8%

4.2%

4.9%

Any 3 losses

0.7%

0.9%

1.0%

0.2%

0.8%

0.3%

0.5%

0.2%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com