Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W73-17 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:38% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:51% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:72% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:16% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.4% | 87.1% |
| 6-2 | 2.9% | 19.3% |
| 5-3 | 11.9% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 20.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.9%) | 0.3% (-0.6%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
SMU
NC State
Virginia
Duke
Florida StatePittsburgh
Stanford
Syracuse
CaliforniaCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PittsburghCCG: 1.8% • Scenario: 37.8%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
87.7%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
96.2%
<0.1%
88.0%
<0.1%82.5%
0.1%
80.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
19.2%
2.9%69.2%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.2%
0.2%30.6%
<0.1%29.5%
0.2%29.4%
<0.1%28.1%
0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.9%
0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.3%
0.1%19.2%
0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.6%
0.5%11.6%
0.6%11.4%
0.4%Any 3 losses
1.4%
0.7%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29