Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W21-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W31-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L9-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:20% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.5% | 75.5% |
| 6-2 | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| 5-3 | 20.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 33.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 26.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 10.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.6%) | 2.9% (+2.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 2.9% • Scenario: 19.8%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
73.6%
0.2%Any 1 loss
11.8%
2.8%77.0%
0.3%16.1%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.6%
0.1%11.4%
0.2%10.9%
0.1%3.6%
1.1%2.7%
0.9%Any 2 losses
5.0%
2.9%18.9%
<0.1%18.1%
0.1%13.2%
<0.1%11.7%
0.1%9.0%
0.3%3.2%
1.0%2.5%
1.2%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29