Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W22-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L10-23 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:57% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:76% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:58% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:40% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:53% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 2.1% | 97.5% |
| 7-2 | 11.2% | 57.6% |
| 6-3 | 25.1% | 4.7% |
| 5-4 | 30.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 8.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.7% (+0.0%) | 9.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.3% (-0.4%) | 10.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 9.7% (+0.0%) | 9.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.0% (-0.7%) | 10.1% (+0.5%) | |
| 10.7% (+1.0%) | 9.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 9.5% (-0.2%) | 9.7% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Houston
Kansas
UCF
Oklahoma State
Baylor
ArizonaCCG: 15.6% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Oklahoma StateCCG: 10.1% • Scenario: 58.7%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.5%
2.1%Any 1 loss
57.6%
11.2%68.1%
1.8%
67.1%
1.1%
65.4%
1.6%
65.4%
1.4%60.9%
0.7%
53.6%
1.4%
41.9%
3.1%Any 2 losses
4.7%
25.1%8.7%
0.9%8.2%
0.4%7.5%
0.6%7.4%
0.7%7.2%
0.5%6.4%
0.8%6.3%
0.5%6.2%
1.0%6.1%
1.1%5.8%
1.3%5.7%
1.2%5.5%
1.3%5.1%
0.4%4.5%
1.0%4.0%
1.3%3.8%
1.0%3.7%
2.8%3.7%
2.1%3.7%
1.7%3.2%
2.5%1.7%
2.2%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29