Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L12-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W31-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L31-38 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L28-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:15% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:48% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:34% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.1% | 48.1% |
| 6-3 | 1.1% | 3.2% |
| 5-4 | 6.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 18.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 30.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 2.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.4%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Houston
Arizona State
UCF
Oklahoma StateBaylor
Texas TechCCG: 2.2% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BaylorCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 15.1%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
48.1%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
3.2%
1.1%
7.2%
<0.1%
5.3%
0.1%3.4%
0.2%
2.8%
0.1%
2.3%
0.4%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29