Big XII

Big XII Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-29

Big XIIConference Standings

T1BYUBYU2-05-025.8%
T1Texas TechTTU2-04-122.7%
T1ColoradoCOLO2-04-13.5%
T1ArizonaARIZ1-03-151.7%
T1Iowa StISU1-04-045.6%
T1West VirginiaWVU1-02-24.4%
T7Kansas StKSU1-14-127.6%
T7UtahUTAH1-14-19.7%
T7TCUTCU1-13-23.3%
T7UCFUCF1-13-12.6%
T7CincinnatiCIN1-13-21.4%
T12Oklahoma StOKST0-23-20.7%
T12Arizona StASU0-13-10.5%
T12KansasKU0-21-40.4%
T12BaylorBAY0-22-3<0.1%
T12HoustonHOU0-21-4<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big XII CCG Matchups

118.5%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
ISUIowa St
210.0%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
KSUKansas St
37.9%
BYUBYU
vs
ISUIowa St
47.5%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
BYUBYU
57.0%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
TTUTexas Tech
66.6%
Iowa StISU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
76.3%
Iowa StISU
vs
KSUKansas St
84.5%
BYUBYU
vs
KSUKansas St
93.8%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
UTAHUtah
103.3%
Kansas StKSU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
113.0%
BYUBYU
vs
TTUTexas Tech
122.1%
Iowa StISU
vs
UTAHUtah
131.4%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
WVUWest Virginia
141.2%
Kansas StKSU
vs
UTAHUtah
151.1%
ArizonaARIZ
vs
COLOColorado

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIICCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big XII CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 51.7%
Game
ArizonaCCG OddsAway
ArizonaCCG OddsHome
HoustonHOU@TCUTCU
51.9%
(+0.2%)		51.7%
(-0.1%)
KansasKU@Arizona StASU
51.2%
(-0.5%)		52.3%
(+0.6%)
UCFUCF@FloridaFLA
51.9%
(+0.2%)		51.6%
(-0.1%)
West VirginiaWVU@Oklahoma StOKST
51.5%
(-0.2%)		51.9%
(+0.1%)
BaylorBAY@Iowa StISU
55.8%
(+4.1%)		51.0%
(-0.7%)
Texas TechTTU@ArizonaARIZ
28.1%
(-23.6%)		63.6%
(+11.8%)

Best Winner Combination for Arizona

HoustonHoustonKansasKansasUCFUCFOklahoma StOklahoma StateBaylorBaylorArizonaArizona

CCG: 71.3% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Arizona

ArizonaArizona

CCG: 63.6% • Scenario: 66.6%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIICCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-4Overall
ArizonaARIZ100%98.1%65.6%7.4%<0.1%51.7%
Iowa StISU100%96.1%55.5%5.0%-45.6%
Kansas StKSU-95.2%44.6%3.3%-27.6%
BYUBYU100%95.9%53.2%2.6%-25.8%
Texas TechTTU100%97.0%54.8%5.8%<0.1%22.7%
UtahUTAH-97.5%57.6%4.7%-9.7%
West VirginiaWVU100%98.5%65.8%8.8%<0.1%4.4%
ColoradoCOLO96.3%94.8%56.0%6.6%<0.1%3.5%
TCUTCU-94.6%45.0%2.1%-3.3%
UCFUCF-100%74.0%12.1%<0.1%2.6%
CincinnatiCIN-97.1%53.6%4.0%-1.4%
Oklahoma StOKST--51.8%6.3%<0.1%0.7%
Arizona StASU-100%68.5%9.3%<0.1%0.5%
KansasKU--68.8%4.5%-0.4%
BaylorBAY--48.1%3.2%-<0.1%
HoustonHOU---21.1%0.3%<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Big XIIFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
ArizonaARIZ(1-0)6.9%22.7%31.7%24.3%10.8%3.1%0.5%<0.1%0.0%-6.8
Iowa StISU(1-0)6.4%21.6%31.2%24.7%11.9%3.5%0.6%<0.1%0.0%-6.7
Kansas StKSU(1-1)-12.4%33.0%32.8%16.4%4.6%0.7%<0.1%<0.1%-6.3
BYUBYU(2-0)1.8%10.4%24.8%30.7%21.7%8.8%1.7%0.1%--6.1
Texas TechTTU(2-0)1.1%7.8%22.4%31.7%24.4%10.3%2.3%0.2%--5.9
UtahUTAH(1-1)-2.1%11.2%25.1%30.4%20.7%8.5%1.8%0.2%-5.1
TCUTCU(1-1)-0.7%5.3%16.6%28.9%28.3%15.4%4.5%0.4%-4.5
ColoradoCOLO(2-0)<0.1%0.5%3.8%13.3%26.6%31.5%19.5%4.8%--4.4
West VirginiaWVU(1-0)<0.1%0.7%3.9%13.0%25.1%29.0%19.7%7.4%1.1%-4.3
CincinnatiCIN(1-1)-0.1%1.8%8.8%22.6%31.3%24.0%9.8%1.5%-4.0
UCFUCF(1-1)-0.1%1.8%8.8%21.3%30.0%24.9%11.0%2.0%-3.9
Oklahoma StOKST(0-2)--0.7%5.5%16.8%27.9%27.7%15.8%5.0%0.7%3.5
KansasKU(0-2)--0.3%3.5%13.9%28.2%30.1%18.1%5.4%0.6%3.4
Arizona StASU(0-1)-<0.1%0.3%2.6%9.6%21.7%29.3%23.8%10.6%2.0%3.0
BaylorBAY(0-2)--<0.1%1.1%6.6%18.9%30.8%27.2%12.8%2.5%2.8
HoustonHOU(0-2)--0.0%<0.1%0.3%2.6%10.9%28.3%37.8%20.1%1.4

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com