Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W57-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W35-34 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L21-48 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:44% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:58% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:19% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:48% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:46% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:40% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 1.8% | 74.0% |
| 6-3 | 8.8% | 12.1% |
| 5-4 | 21.3% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 30.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 24.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 11.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5% (-0.1%) | 2.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.0%) | 2.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.0%) | 2.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.0%) | 2.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.9% (+0.4%) | 2.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.4% (-0.1%) | 2.6% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Houston
Arizona State
Florida
West Virginia
Baylor
Texas TechCCG: 6.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCU
ArizonaCCG: 2.7% • Scenario: 54.2%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
76.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%
88.1%
<0.1%
78.7%
<0.1%77.6%
0.1%77.5%
<0.1%
75.9%
<0.1%
68.3%
0.3%66.4%
0.1%Any 2 losses
24.1%
4.9%82.5%
<0.1%81.7%
0.1%81.3%
<0.1%79.3%
0.1%71.6%
<0.1%69.5%
0.4%68.9%
0.1%20.6%
0.1%19.5%
0.1%18.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%14.8%
0.2%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
0.4%14.0%
<0.1%13.8%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.5%10.7%
0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.2%
0.2%10.2%
0.1%9.3%
0.4%9.3%
0.6%8.0%
0.3%7.2%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
12.1%
5.0%23.6%
0.1%21.3%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%18.3%
0.2%17.1%
0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.8%
0.5%13.4%
<0.1%13.3%
0.1%13.0%
0.1%12.9%
0.3%12.7%
0.2%12.3%
0.5%12.2%
0.1%11.8%
0.2%11.8%
0.2%10.7%
0.4%10.0%
0.4%8.2%
0.2%7.0%
0.7%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29